Montréal, Canada – Just a few months ago, the Liberal Party’s government appeared to be on the verge of a resounding 2025 defeat.
According to polls, the Conservatives’ party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, were in the lead by as many as 26 percentage points.
The Liberals’ support had fallen dramatically as a result of a lack of funds and a growing dislike of Trudeau, and demands for resignation were mounting ahead of a looming federal election.
Experts claim that the political climate is changing as a result of Trudeau’s decision to step down, a Liberal leadership race that has increased the party’s momentum, and US President Donald Trump’s repeated threats against Canada.
Recent surveys indicate that the Liberals have quickly widened the gap between them and the Conservatives, with one poll released last week showing the party having a lead over the Tories for the first time since 2021.
Many people believed the Liberals were politically finished two months ago, according to Semra Sevi, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto.
They are now resurrected, according to the statement.
resignation of Trudeau
One of the main causes of the party’s change in fortunes is Trudeau’s early January decision to resign as prime minister and Liberal Party leader once his replacement is chosen, according to experts.
Trudeau, who has served as prime minister since 2015, has endured years of growing public outcry over how effectively his administration handled the COVID-19 pandemic, rising housing costs, and a cost-of-living crisis.
The prime minister and his party also struggled to stop years of criticism from the ascending Conservative Party’s firebrand leader, Pierre Poilievre, who has promised change while blaming Trudeau for all of Canada’s failings.
The political climate has changed since Trudeau’s resignation, according to Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, the company that released the late February poll that showed the Liberals had their first lead in four years.
Some voters, according to Bricker, chose the Conservatives over those who supported the party’s goals or Poilievre because they wanted to change.
According to Bricker, “they are now considering whether there might be another change option.” “And that’s Mark Carney,” the statement read.
In the race to succeed Trudeau as leader of the Liberal Party and, consequently, as Canada’s next prime minister, Carney, a former bank governor, is in the lead.
The race has rekindled the Liberal base, sparked national media interest, and boosted the party’s support.
In regards to the leadership contest, which will be decided on March 9th, Bricker said, “Mark Carney has that new car smell about him and people are really interested in taking a test drive.”
messaging that is conservative
In a post-Trudeau era of Canadian politics, the Conservative Party appears to be struggling to refocus its message.
“Over the course of the past two years, Poilievre has had a lot of success characterizing the Liberal record in a way where Canadians have come to learn against what the Liberals are doing,” said Bricker.
He continued, “Poilievre had succeeded in successfully demonizing Trudeau.” You can’t continue to blame the prime minister for what has happened, though, saying “but what’s happened is because he’s gone.”
Carney, who was previously Trudeau’s economic adviser but was never a member of the Canadian Parliament, has been compared to the Liberal government’s record by Poilievre and the Conservatives.
In reference to a polarizing Liberal government carbon pricing program that Carney had publicly supported but has since said he plans to scrap if elected, they have nicknamed him “Carbon Tax Carney.”
Additionally, Poilievre frequently criticizes the “Carney-Trudeau Liberals” on social media.
However, according to Bricker, Canadians have lost interest in what is happening right now, especially in relation to the United States, over the past ten years of liberal policies.
The Trump factor
Indeed, according to analysts, the statements coming out of the White House since Trump’s election on January 20 have been the most significant factor in the Liberals’ resurgence.
The US president had threatened to impose severe tariffs on Canadian imports for months, which experts fear will devastate the country’s economy.
Trump’s ambitious 25-percent tariffs on the majority of Canadian goods went into effect in the early hours of Tuesday, and he followed through on that promise. Fears of a trade war have been fueled by Ottawa’s response by implementing reciprocal measures against the US.
Trump’s repeated efforts to make Canada the 51st US state have contributed to widespread rage and a rise in Canadian nationalism. Many Canadians are now calling for Canada to leave the country because it no longer sees the United States as a stable partner.
The so-called “ballot question” in the Canadian election, according to political science professor Genevieve Tellier, will undoubtedly determine which party will best manage Canada-US ties and respond to Trump.
Could the Liberals defeat the Conservatives in the first place? Tellier told Al Jazeera. It’s more about economic leadership than how do you respond to [the] Americans, they say.
Poilievre’s combative demeanor has helped him succeed in the opposition, she explained, but some Canadians are now questioning his ability to unite people.
Poivre’s issue is that he frequently uses the same expression as Donald Trump, Tellier continued. There are “many things” that have similarities, “.
Meanwhile, Canadians have been supportive of Trudeau’s unified “Team Canada” approach to the US president’s threats, which has helped the Liberals. Tellier continued, “And for once, the government has acted quickly, which was not really the case before.”
call for early elections?
The timing of the federal election has risen to new significance as Canadians continue to be concerned about the Trump administration’s policies.
The Liberals, as the party in power, can set off a vote by the deadline of October 20 for the election, but they must be held by that date.
The party could stay on top of its momentum, according to Sevi from the University of Toronto, “especially with the pressure to address the tariff threats and economic concerns like housing and inflation,” according to Sevi.
Tellier claimed that avoiding some potentially contentious political decisions would be done by the Liberals as a result of an early election call.
When Trudeau announced his resignation, he immediately suspended Parliament. In the middle of March, it is scheduled to resume.
The next Liberal leader would need to form a cabinet and deliver a speech outlining the new minority government’s priorities, both of which could be contentious if lawmakers were to re-elect from the Commons.
Tellier said that if you call an early election, you don’t need to do all of those things.
In the end, whenever a vote is scheduled, experts concur that Canada will face a contest that hasn’t changed much from what was anticipated a few months ago.
With foreign policy, leadership, and economic issues all playing significant roles, Sevi reported to Al Jazeera, “the election is shaping up to be much more competitive than anticipated.”
Source: Aljazeera
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