Will the Russia-Ukraine war end in 2026?

Russian soldiers in Kiev, Ukraine, say they are terrified of Ukrainians, according to Vasily, a corpulent officer who limps awkwardly along Sophia Square in Kiev, where the country’s largest Christmas tree stands.

I’ve jumped into their trenches,” I said. They fear us a lot, he told Al Jazeera.

Their concern, he said, does not imply that Kyiv can decide the terms of the end-of-war because Ukraine still has the most soldiers, a stronger economy, and a larger war arsenal, whereas Russia still has more servicemen and more guns, he said.

When the enemy says, “We simply have nothing to strike it with,” Vasily said, referring to the dire shortage of artillery shells while he was on the front line before losing his left foot to a landmine in 2023, when he hears yell into the radio to say “Hold on” and give its coordinates at 800 meters.

Vassily stayed in the army and was requested to keep his last name in strict accordance with rules of the war.

One can’t hope for the end all together, says one.

However, a four-star general believes that a “pause” in the war’s fifth year, which begins in February 2026, would be the only real achievement.

One can’t hope for the full end of the war with such an aggressive neighbor as Russia, according to Ihor Romanenko, former deputy head of Ukraine’s general staff of armed forces.

He claimed that “there won’t be peace with Russia until we liberate the areas that are within the post-Soviet] borders of Ukraine.”

And he claimed that Kyiv would have to “stop the Russians on the front line” by significantly bolstering its military might if Moscow violated the ceasefire pause.

According to him, Kyiv would need to establish universal and “fair” mobilisation without any exceptions, boost domestic arms production, prioritize military needs in economic decisions, and pass stricter martial law.

Up to 40% of the armed forces’ needs are being provided by Ukraine’s military-industrial complex this year, a significant increase from 15 to 20% in 2022.

The remaining 60% is provided by Western allies, and Romanenko argued that their subsequent aid should be “decisive and quick.”

In the second half of 2026, “an opportunity to sign a peace deal” may arise if Russia doesn’t manage to advance quickly and quickly and realizes that Kyiv can tolerate the attrition war, according to another analyst.

Volodymyr Fesenko, the head of the Kyiv-based Penta think tank, told Al Jazeera, “Everything will depend on the Kremlin’s and]Russian President Vladimir Putin’s personal willingness to agree.”

There is a chance to reach a peace deal by the late 2025, he said, if Moscow’s “dead-end” development is made clear next year.

Even if Putin consents, Fesenko said it would take months to “connect” the parties’ versions of a peace agreement.

In exchange for Russia’s withdrawal from three Ukrainian regions in the east and north, Ukraine may have to complie with the White House’s demands, he said, to which the conflict will continue into 2027, including several highly fortified cities and towns.

The potential end of the war is influenced by larger global factors.

According to Kyiv-based analyst Ihar Tyshkevich, the very definition of the collective West will change in 2026 as a result of Washington’s removal from the “global policeman’s” role and the end of the “Western hegemony” over the rest of the world.

China is beginning to gain greater global influence and dominance in Asia, but it is still unable to fully challenge Washington’s dominance, he said at a press conference in Kyiv on Monday.

He claimed that this process will also cause Ukraine’s position to be “erosion” of international law.

The worst-case scenario is a “Finnish scenario,” according to Tyshkevich, who spoke about the 1939 Finnish-Soviet war when Moscow attempted to reclaim its province during the tsarist era.

Moscow cut off tenth of Finland’s territory and forced Helsinki to accept it despite the heavy losses suffered by Soviet forces that led to Nazi Germany’s invasion of the USSR in 1941.

The “Finnish scenario” will mean that Russia recognizes regions that are occupied by Russia as part of Russia in Ukraine.

In reference to the 2008 conflict between Russia and Georgia, when Moscow defeated smaller Georgian forces and “recognised” two breakaway regions as “independent,” Tyshkevych called another potential scenario “Georgian.”

The Georgian scenario, in Ukraine’s opinion, means that Kyiv is refusing to recognize the occupied areas as Russia’s.

He claimed that a third “interim” scenario would indicate that negotiations are still going on and that the war is frozen.

According to German researcher at Bremen University, Nikolay Mitrokhin believes there is only one possible scenario for the end of the war.

He said that Russia would “push out” of the region’s remaining one-fifth of a-five percent of its population to the southeast, or that it would have to voluntarily leave. He also said that it would acknowledge the loss of 15 percent of Dnipropetrovsk and 90 percent of the neighboring Zaporizhia region.

Donetsk is credited with creating our problems.

The Kremlin has the resources to keep the war from going on for at least another two years, he said, as Western pressure on Russia’s sanctions is “weak” due to the lack of interest from too many countries in bypassing them and trading with Moscow.

Ukraine’s “corrupt and cowardly” government is unable to mobilize enough manpower, he said, but it does have the resources to do so, he said.

Because Western mediators are unable to persuade Russia to stop, he said, leading to a gradual retreat in Ukrainian forces in crucial directions.

However, Mitrokhin told Al Jazeera that there are a possibility that Trump and his administration will force Zelenskyy to leave Donetsk or hold a presidential vote during the war.

Many typical Ukrainians are becoming more and more tired of the conflict, Russian shelling, blackouts, and a slump in the economy at the same time.

Source: Aljazeera