Will Scottish teams avoid European coefficient abyss?

Big-time football is back in full swing this week as three of Scotland’s five representatives begin what appears to be an increasingly dangerous journey through European qualifiers.

Rangers host Panathinaikos in the Champions League’s second qualifying round on Tuesday.

In the same Europa League match as Dundee United hosting Strassen in the Conference League on Thursday, Hibernian travel to Midtjylland.

Aberdeen awaits in the same phase of the Europa League while Celtic is in the Champions League play-off round.

Only champions Celtic and Scottish Cup winners Aberdeen are guaranteed league phase football this season.

If Rangers and Hibs can win their opening games, but Scotland’s co-efficient has dropped so far that it begins the new campaign in 17th place since finishing ninth in Europe in 2022-23 for a second successive season, which is the nation’s best since seventh in 1988.

Without Scotland’s clubs starting campaigns in their worst positions since 2012, their clubs would end up in 14th place by the end of the season with a performance similar to last year.

Representation would drop from five to four clubs in two years ‘ time.

Future champions would have three Champions League qualifiers instead of just one, runners-up would have three Conference League qualifiers, and third-place team would finish third, and Scottish Cup winners would have four Europa League qualifiers instead of just one.

The elimination of the top 12 already leaves the Scottish Cup winners with the chance to enter the third qualifying round of the Europa League rather than the play-offs and not be guaranteed group stage football.

Meanwhile, the team finishing third in the Premiership will now enter in the Conference League in the second qualifying round instead of the same stage of the Europa League.

The five representatives for this year are under greater pressure, according to Scotland’s Coefficient, who predicted that “we will not finish in the top 15 unless we have four teams in the league phase.”

Rangers advanced past the Champions League quarter-finals after falling to Athletic Bilbao after losing to Dynamo Kyiv in the third qualifying round of last season.

Along the way, they finished eighth in the league table after drawing 1-1 with Tottenham Hotspur, who would have defeated them.

Having reached the last 16 the season before, Rangers are now ranked 30th in Europe – 60 places above Panathinaikos.

The Greek Superleague runners-up, however, have a respectable track record, having advanced through two rounds before falling to Braga in the play-offs two years ago.

In the Europa League second qualifying round, they defeated Botev Plovdiv 6-1 on aggregate, before falling to Ajax on penalties.

They would then beat Lens in the Conference League play-off before finishing 13th in the league stage and reaching the round of 16, losing to eventual semi-finalists Fiorentina.

In seven games, Panathinaikos have never lost to Scottish foes, though Rangers led the way in the 2008 Europa League on away goals after drawing 1-1 at Ibrox and drawing 1-1 at Athens.

Five years prior, they had drawn 1-1 at home to Athens and lost 3-1 there in the Champions League group stage, and they had also lost 5-0 to Motherwell in 2011 – their most recent qualifying encounter with a Scottish club.

Portuguese head coach Rui Vitoria, appointed in October, won seven trophies with Benfica, led Al-Nassr to the 2020 African Champions League semi-finals, while Spartak Moscow won their Europa League group ahead of Leiceister City and Napoli while he was in charge.

The Spaniard, who was formerly a youth star at Liverpool, signed from Nantes for left-back Giorgos Kyriakopoulos and left-back Pedro Chirivella, who also made three summer moves, all of whom have already left Monza following their relegation from serie A.

Manolis Siopis, a midfielder who joined Cardiff City in January, is one of their five internationals from Greece, and nine others have caps for their nations.

Among them are Uruguay winger Facundo Pellistri, who played a handful of games during four years with Manchester United, one time Southampton loanee midfielder Filip Duricic and United States centre-back Erik Palmer-Brown, once of Manchester City.

Teams with comparable recent European pedigrees are expected to win if Rangers, in the early stages of rebuilding under new head coach Russell Martin, defeat the Greeks in the Champions League third qualifying round or lose to their Europa League equivalent.

Viktoria Plzen of the Czech Republic and Servette of Switzerland compete in the top competition, while Ukraine’s Shakhtar Donetsk and Besiktas of Turkey and Ukraine’s Shakhtar Donetsk are arguably more formidable opponents in the Europa equivalent.

Given their recent relative poor European results, Hibs will travel to Denmark on Thursday as underdogs.

The Leith side have failed in six attempts to progress through the qualifiers in the last 15 years, although they did come closest two years ago until Aston Villa ended their dream with an 8-0 aggregate thrashing in the Conference League play-offs.

Hosts Midtjylland, however, endured two rounds before losing to Slovan Bratislava last year in the Champions League play-offs, and then advanced to the play-off round by finishing 20th.

That explains why the Danes are ranked 71st in Europe, 166 places higher than Hibs.

Having lost 7-3 on aggregate to Rangers in Europa League qualifying in 2019, their improvement was such that they knocked Celtic out of the Champions League qualifying, 3-2 on aggregate, two years later.

Thomas Thomasberg is currently leading the team with international experience, his second as head coach.

He has Franculino Dju, a player from Guinea-Bissau, Cho Gue-sung, and Adam Buksa from Poland, who is reportedly interested in several Premier League clubs.

Zambia’s Edward Chilufya is joined in midfield by Denil Castillo, who has just made his Ecuador debut, while another 21-year-old, winger Darío Osorio, plays for Chile and centre-back Lee Han-beom recently debuted for South Korea.

The 30-year-old right-back has since played for Young Boys, Wolfsburg, and Fulham while earning 25 caps for Switzerland, despite not making it even out of Rangers’ bench when he was on loan from Newcastle United in 2015 on a loan deal from Newcastle United.

Former Brentford defender Mads Bech Sorensen leads Midtjylland, while veteran goalkeeper Jonas Lossl, Huddersfield Town, and Everton also played for the Premier League club.

Like Rangers, David Gray’s Hibs have an added incentive to remain in their current competition, with next opponents Fredrikstad of Norway having limited European pedigree.

United will be kicking themselves if they do not at least reach the Conference League third qualifying round.

The Tannadice club reached the Uefa Cup final after almost 40 years, moving up to third place in the European Cup final.

Since their most recent victory, against Principat of Andorra in 1997, they have failed to break a European tie in six attempts, and they are currently ranked 238th.

However, that is still 166 places above opponents Strassen, who have only ever played one other tie in European competition – when they lost 5-0 to Finnish side Kuopion Palloseura (KuPS) after a goalless draw at home in last season’s first qualifying round.

The team under Arno Bonvini has since finished second in their domestic league, which is their best-ever performance, but they are a squad without any notable names, with six summer exits being replaced by six additions, all from Luxembourg.

Rapid Vienna, who reached the Conference League quarter-finals last year, or Decic, who won the Montenegrin title two years ago, are waiting, but Jim Goodwin’s United should advance.