In a last-ditch effort to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine before the president’s deadline of August 8, Steve Witkoff, a top US diplomat, traveled to Moscow on Wednesday in a final push.
The White House announced that Russia had requested a meeting with Trump following Witkoff’s meeting with Putin. According to the White House, Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the US president, were available for a meeting.
Despite months of frantic diplomacy, direct phone calls with Putin, and promises to end the Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours if he comes to power, Trump has so far failed to mediate a truce. During his re-election campaign, he had promised to do so.
Trump has threatened a new wave of economic sanctions against Russia if it refuses to accept a ceasefire in response to Putin’s unwillingness to agree to a pause in fighting.
More than 21, 000 sanctions have been placed on Russia’s economy since Russia’s full-fledged invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, according to the US and its allies, including the United Kingdom and the European Union.
Trump has threatened new tariffs that are unlike those that were previously in place. They target Russia by attempting to scuttle its trading partners in an effort to stop Moscow from making purchases or sales.
The US and its allies are also exposed to the risks of these secondary tariffs, though.
What additional tariffs does Trump threaten?
The US president threatened Russia with 100 percent secondary tariffs if it didn’t work toward a ceasefire in the middle of July as peace negotiations stalled despite Trump’s efforts. He gave the Kremlin a 50-day cooperation deadline.
Trump moved up the deadline, which currently expires on August 8 after Moscow suggested it wouldn’t bow to US pressure. Following Witkoff’s visit to Moscow, it is unclear whether Trump’s willingness to discuss talks with Putin and Zelenskyy has altered that deadline.
Trump announced a 50% tariff increase on Indian imports on Wednesday as retaliation for New Delhi’s refusal to stop buying Russian oil, and he did so in response to his earlier announcement in late July. In addition to Brazil, India is currently one of the nations that are currently subject to the highest US tariffs.
Products that the US imports from nations that are still trading with Russia would be subject to duties of 100% in addition to the tariffs Trump has already imposed on those countries.
That would make those products less expensive on the US market because it would at least double their cost.
The goal of these tariffs is to defraud Russia’s trading partners of their ability to stop doing business with them, isolating its economy and denying it the income it generates from exports, particularly energy.
Russia has consistently generated more than 500 million euros ($580 million) from energy exports since 2022 despite the sanctions it is currently currently facing. If nations stop purchasing all of Russia’s oil and gas, that will be a problem.
Which nations might be affected by Trump’s secondary tariffs?
These secondary tariffs would affect the following nations:
- China, Russia’s most important ally, accounts for the majority of China’s exports. China accounted for almost a third of Russian exports in 2023. It also accounted for nearly half of Russia’s oil exports.
- India, an old friend, has been a major buyer of Russian crude since 2022, accounting for almost 40% of Russia’s total oil exports in 2023. India received 17% of Russia’s total exports in that year. Trump had already imposed tariffs on Indian goods of 25%. He doubled that rate on Wednesday as punishment for Russia’s continued oil purchases.
- 8 percent of Russian exports were made in Turkiye, the third-largest producer of energy, in 2023. It is a US ally in NATO.
If Trump truly targets all those who trade with Russia, Turkiye might be the only one who could be targeted.
US allies might be hit, right?
India has criticized the EU’s trade with Moscow in response to Western threats regarding its ties to Russia. And despite the decline in trade since 2022, it is still significant.
In 2024, the EU estimated that its total trade with Russia was 67.5% of its GDP ($77.9bn). India’s total trade with Russia in 2024-25, by contrast, was worth $68.7bn.
Russia continues to provide its liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies in a significant way. In fact, Russian LNG has increased in imports: In 2024, Russian LNG imports were up 9% from the previous year.
Trump has already imposed a 15% tariff on Europe. Trump’s closest ally groups will face sanctions for putting pressure on Russia to end the war?
Could there also be risks for the US?
Secondary tariffs on those who trade with Russia also pose risks for the US as a whole.
Trump’s team is currently negotiating a trade deal with China, which has put a stop to the two world’s two biggest economies’ trade disputes.
If Trump imposes 100% tariffs on Chinese goods simply because Beijing also conducts trade with Russia, that detente would collapse.
American consumers will feel the pinch if China, Europe, and India, the country’s top suppliers of goods, double the cost of everything from clothing to lamps to iPhones.
Additionally, Russia purchases uranium hexafluoride, one of which is used in uranium enrichment.
Will China and India stop purchasing Russian energy?
That seems unlikely. Despite US sanctions, China continues to purchase Iranian oil, and Russia is arguably its most strategic partner.
India’s ties to Russia have not waned either. Other than Putin, another foreign official is currently in Moscow. Ajit Doval, India’s top official in charge of national security, is also present in the Russian capital. S. Jaishankar, India’s foreign minister, is scheduled to travel to Russia later this month, and the country has announced that it will host Putin later this year.
Source: Aljazeera
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