Why Luxembourg dead rubber matters for Northern Ireland

2026 World Cup qualifier: Northern Ireland v Luxembourg

Venue: Windsor Park, Belfast Date: Monday, 17 November Kick-off: 19:45 GMT

Northern Ireland’s trip to Slovakia ended in a late defeat and meant Michael O’Neill’s side cannot finish in the top two in Group A.

But there was a silver lining to the Kosice cloud, as Croatia’s win over Faroe Islands guaranteed Northern Ireland a World Cup play-off.

So, ultimately, the final qualifier with Luxembourg on Monday night is now a dead rubber with nothing on the line in terms of the table.

This one speaks for itself. This is the last time Northern Ireland will play before the World Cup play-off in March.

Despite the feel-good factor that has been restored around O’Neill’s team, they have lost two matches on the bounce and will want to try and get that winning feeling back against Luxembourg.

There was a sense that momentum was firmly on Northern Ireland’s side after the win over Slovakia last month that had Windsor Park bouncing.

The outcome on Monday may not change their position, but the game with Luxembourg is an opportunity to show the past two games were just a bump on the road, rather than the journey veering off course.

Northern Ireland already know their play-off semi-final will be away from home, so it is the perfect opportunity to send O’Neill’s side off with three points.

O’Neill will have a number of selection dilemmas for the final qualifier.

The injured Shea Charles and Ali McCann are both still missing in midfield, and George Saville will join them on the sidelines through suspension with his late yellow card against Slovakia his second of the campaign.

Daniel Ballard will also sit out that game after his even later dismissal in Kosice.

In the forward line, Dion Charles was taken off at half-time and his replacement Jamie Reid also limped off in the second half.

That could leave O’Neill with just three options up front for Monday. Josh Magennis is the natural choice, and he came off the bench in the second half in Slovakia.

Jamie Donley replaced the injured Reid and played alongside Magennis, while Callum Marshall, who has often featured out wide for Northern Ireland, could get a shot in his more natural central forward role.

“I have said in the past that I would like to see Callum Marshall get a chance,” said former Northern Ireland defender George McCartney.

“He is a natural goalscorer, a clever player, and come Monday it is a possibility he could play.”

Other youngsters who may get a chance to shine are midfielder Jamie McDonnell, who O’Neill said he was close to selecting in Slovakia, Barnsley’s uncapped former Coleraine star Patrick Kelly or defender Terry Devlin, who recently scored twice for Portsmouth.

Off the back of that, the potential introduction of youth may allow O’Neill to experiment before the play-off.

A lot of that comes down to a simple question – how do you get the best out of Conor Bradley?

He was not as effective as usual when playing further forward against Slovakia, but with the greatest of respect to Luxembourg, playing against a lower standard of opposition may allow him to slot into the role.

With Trai Hume at risk of suspension for the play-off semi should he be booked in Belfast, Bradley or Devlin could also slot into place at right back.

There’s a similar conundrum on the left-hand side. Justin Devenny, the centre midfielder-turned left wing-back, has excelled in an unfamiliar position.

But he is also at risk of suspension, which could see Jamal Lewis come in.

With nothing to lose, Northern Ireland can go for it and try new things, but there is also that yellow card tightrope to keep under consideration.

“We know how good our squad is and how players are ready to step in and put a performance in as every single player in the squad wants to play,” young defender Ruairi McConville said after the loss in Slovakia.

This one isn’t directly linked to the game with Luxembourg, but with a play-off in the bag Northern Ireland can look forward to discovering their possible opponents for March.

O’Neill’s side will face a semi-final against a pot one side in March.

As things stand, that will be one of Italy, Turkey, Poland or Ukraine – but things could still change.

There remains a chance, should they not win their respective groups, that Germany, Denmark or Austria could yet be involved too.

The play-off pots will be determined by the world rankings at the end of qualifying, so Northern Ireland won’t know their possible opponents for sure until then.

Off the back of that, the draw for a play-off final is an open one so, if Northern Ireland can negotiate a tricky semi-final away from home, then there is a 50/50 chance that the final could be at Windsor Park.

And that is why it is important to try and keep their Belfast home as much of a fortress as possible.

The loss to Germany was a first home defeat for Northern Ireland in seven matches, a run which stretched back to October 2023 against Slovenia.

Northern Ireland were unlucky not to get something against the Germans, too, and it will be important to keep that mental advantage that home turf is as strong as possible.

Northern Ireland will be hoping that the draw for the play-off final is kind and brings a home draw.