Why has transfer window opened early & what can each Premier League club spend?

One season may have just finished but the football does not stop, with the Club World Cup beginning on 14 June and a new mini transfer window now open.

Before the competition officially begins in the United States, all clubs have been given a 10-day window to sign players, not just those competing in the revamped tournament.

The market then closes again and reopens from 16 June.

Before the Club World Cup, Real Madrid already made the most of the opening window by acquiring Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold.

The Reds ‘ own attention will be on a new Premier League campaign that is just 75 days away.

Which clubs will be able to spend the money on squad building this summer, and who is walking a tight profit-sustainability path?

PSR limits clubs to losses of £105m over three years, with that amount reduced by £22m for each season a club are outside the top tier of English football during the cycle.

Some costs, such as those associated with the women’s soccer team, the academy, the community, and others, are not included in the calculations.

While Arsenal have not lifted a major trophy since winning the FA Cup in 2020, last term marked the third consecutive season in which they have finished runners-up.

The Gunners also advanced to the semi-finals of the Champions League and Carabao Cup, and the pressure is mounting.

With a £51m move for Real Sociedad and Spain midfielder Martin Zubimendi in the pipeline, manager Mikel Arteta seems intent on addressing his side’s shortcomings early.

A source of contention among supporters should also be that he has plenty of money available to him to finally bring in a prolific center-forward to help Arsenal win in competitions.

Record revenues of £616m in 2023-24 are likely to be exceeded thanks to the expanded Champions League format and extra broadcast revenue, while the sales of homegrown duo Emile Smith Rowe and Eddie Nketiah in the past 12 months brings about £50m of pure profit.

Arsenal, the most profitable club in Premier League history, could easily spend more than $ 200 million in the window without having any PSR concerns, Maguire claimed.

Aston Villa’s situation appears less hopeful now that they haven’t qualified for the Champions League.

The club made a loss of £206m in the two years to 30 June 2024 and, with the £100m departure of Jack Grealish in 2021 dropping away from their PSR figures, backing Unai Emery will be far from straightforward.

The success of last term’s passage to the quarter-finals of Europe’s elite club competition, along with Douglas Luiz, Jhon Duran, and Moussa Diaby’s sales, undoubtedly contributed.

But the Midlands club has spent more than £900m since returning to the Premier League in 2019, exceeding Uefa’s 70% revenue to wages ratio every season.

Without any outgoings, Villa appears to be in the low end of the £50-100 million spending range, according to Maguire.

Meanwhile, Newcastle look well equipped after reaching the Champions League at Villa’s expense.

Liverpool should be even stronger this time around thanks to Arne Slot’s leadership of the Premier League title last term.

With Federico Chiesa the only incoming transfer for a modest £10m last term, they have already signalled their intent this summer by signing Netherlands international Jeremie Frimpong, with Germany midfielder Florian Wirtz a £109m target from Bayer Leverkusen.

Since 2019, Liverpool haven’t been among the top ten parties to spend money on player signings, but their business model is a classic example of being smarter than bigger, Maguire said.

“Contract extensions for Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk are arguably worth far more to the club than a huge investment in untried new players – they certainly have the capacity to spend £200m but whether that fits with their model is another matter”.

The depiction of a financial crisis at Manchester United appears to have been overstated by part-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe about 40 miles across the M62.

United had the highest EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) profit of any Premier League club, as well as the second highest revenues in 2023-24.

Despite their poor pitch performance, the club’s day-to-day operations only add to its appeal at the turnstiles to sponsors and broadcasters.

Despite missing out on Champions League football and the additional riches it provides, by losing to Tottenham in the Europa League final, Wolves forward Matheus Cunha is seemingly set for a £62.5m move to Old Trafford.

Although United wanted to purchase 30 million Ipswich forward Liam Delap, they chose Chelsea, and their next move may depend on how many players they want to sell out.

Chelsea’s ability to maintain their lavish outlay on players comes with an asterisk attached.

Delap will join midfielders Kendry Paez and Dario Essugo, winger Estevao Willian, goalkeeper Mike Penders, and defender Mamadou Sarr when the Blues start pre-season with a value of around £1.4 billion.

Sporting winger Geovany Quenda, 18, is already signed on for the following year.

However, the Premier League’s decision to sell their women’s team to parent company BlueCo for £198.7 million, a move that ultimately resulted in the wider business making money, may determine how they will bolster their ranks.

“If this is accepted by the Premier League, then Chelsea would have significant spending flexibility and another £200m is a possibility”, added Maguire.

“They may have to sell before buying,” he said, “because it is excluded, things will be much more difficult.”

The cloud hanging over Manchester City is in the shape of 115 charges of alleged Premier League financial rule breaches.

The club is confident that they will be fully exonerated despite the fact that the outcome could result in a fine, a transfer embargo, a wage cap, or a points deduction.

“City could spend a further £200m this summer unless there is a negative result to the charges”, added Maguire.

With an 11, 379-capacity capacity at the Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth have the lowest matchday revenue in the Premier League.

Yet they have recruited shrewdly and the big-money sales of Dominic Solanke and Dean Huijsen during 2024-25 means they could easily part with £100m to bring in new signings.

According to Maguire, Brentford are among the best-run companies in the league, and their strategy of “spotting players that other clubs have not taken into account, such as Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa, is likely to pay more dividends because they are attracting attention from clubs with big budgets,” adds Maguire.

“The Bees have no PSR concerns and could spend up to £200m, but are unlikely to break the bank for the sake of it as this is not the way that owner Matthew Benham conducts affairs at the club”.

In addition, another club on the south coast, Brighton, is in poor health as of the start of the transfer window.

The Seagulls have earned £200m in profit over the previous two seasons and could repeat last summer’s heavy spend of more than £200m if necessary.

However, CEO Paul Barber has already stated that they will likely stick to their tried-and-true strategy of bringing in players from unfamiliar markets.

Having been in the Championship for two years out of the past three, Burnley may need to be conservative with their PSR loss limited to £61m.

The Clarets are the only Premier League team to have made a single player purchase before exceeding the £20 million mark, aside from Sunderland.

The Black Cats ‘ return to the top flight via the play-offs comes with the knowledge they will be able to reinforce significantly for the step up in class that awaits.

With Sunderland in good financial shape, Enzo le Fee’s loan move from Roma in January featured an obligation-to-buy clause, which could help the French midfielder kick-start a recruitment drive.

“Since being relegated from the Premier League in 2017, Sunderland have not spent more than £10m in a single year on player signings, despite receiving parachute payments, and they have only made losses of £18m in the last two seasons”, added Maguire.

Leeds, who came out on top of the second tier, are in a less fortunate position.

“They will have to box clever in terms of recruitment”, continued Maguire.

“One marquee signing is certainly possible, especially with some players out of contract, but the chances of a series of big names is less likely”, added Maguire.

“Unless there are exits, a spend of £50-£100m is the ballpark.”

Fulham will likely find themselves with a little more in their budget, although the fact that their wages to revenue ratio is at 85% is a cause for concern.

A £100-150 million additional player investment is possible, according to Maguire, who has owned Shahid Khan extensively in the past and who has worked under manager Marco Silva to woo new players.

Elsewhere, Nottingham Forest’s qualification for Europe next season is great for fans, even if the Conference League may not necessarily swell their accounts.

Teams in that competition only receive 9% of the prize money, compared to a champions league team’s 74%, in comparison.

The club have a top-10 wage budget, after establishing themselves back in the Premier League, and funds to meet the extra demands of a first European adventure for 30 years.

Tottenham will be able to grow, but they will still be owed more than £330 million in unpaid transfer fees, the majority of which will be due in the summer of 2025.

This may prove the biggest constraint to spending for their Champions League campaign next season.

After finishing 14th overall, West Ham boss Graham Potter is unsure of what needs to be done this summer.

The Englishman has already said he wants to trim and lower the age of his squad and should have room to manoeuvre if the owners elect to back him.

Over the past two seasons, Wolves have suffered significant losses, but successful player sales have helped to offset these losses.