Why Guardiola’s tactics stopped working amid rise of rapid football

Another defeat, another tournament gone, and another head-in-hands moment in the bemusing collapse of this iconic Manchester City team.

After being defeated in Madrid in midweek, they travel to Premier League leaders Liverpool on Sunday, placing them in the elite category, which are currently battling for the title. They have lost 13 of their last 26 games in all competitions.

By this point, there are far too many issues to list.

Key players are underperforming, making uncharacteristic mistakes in an ageing and injury-hit squad, and waning confidence is causing passive spells and goal-blitzes that follow. All of this is happening as City froze at the Bernabeu on Wednesday.

But these are symptoms, not causes.

As Pep Guardiola has pointed out, the city’s malaise is a deep-rooted tactical issue that necessitates both updating and embracing the future.

Guardiola has been expressing his thoughts on tactical issues at press conferences throughout the City’s ongoing crisis, and he recently made a very insightful point.

Citing Bournemouth and Brighton, he said: “Today, modern football is not positional. You have to ride the rhythm”.

This is a significant admission because it is the ancestor of the “juego de posicion,” or “positional play,” that has dominated international football since his Barcelona side won everything 15 years ago.

Is this the beginning of the “Pepification” of modern football’s end, as it is bigger than this one article?

Guardiola’s philosophy, which emphasizes direct football and runs deliberately in opposition to possession and territory, is arguably overtaking it at the elite level.

The data is available even though Liverpool have had less chaos and more control than they did under Jurgen Klopp and Tottenham’s quick, linear football has suffered from a thin squad.

Although it is still early, there is some evidence that Guardiola is starting to adapt Manchester City.

He remodelled his first City team to dominate domestically. Then he refined that into a clinical, more physical Treble-winning machine – with Erling Haaland and a collection of giant centre-backs.

It was interesting to watch City launch longer passes over the opposition defense in the 3-1 win over Chelsea in January, with Omar Marmoush, a new signing, running alongside Haaland frequently.

Guardiola’s decision to use two in-behind runners in one forward line was significant. He made a tactical discovery again last weekend when he defeated Newcastle United 4-0, using the visitors’ man-to-man press instead.

Marmoush’s opener from a long Ederson pass formed part of a wider pattern.

The Premier League record for goalkeeper assists was the subject of conversation, but there is more to it than that.

However, Marmoush was not the only recent addition to the mix.

Guardiola called Nico Gonzalez “a mini-Rodri” and squeezed the midfield once more and set the play’s tempo.

Rodri’s injury absence may seem overused, but it is more about what he represents than what he gave Manchester City, the decline he represents both on and off the field.

On the ball, he brings control and order. That includes breaking the opposition press by taking possession of tight spaces and releasing it after a thousand passes.

Off it, there is pressing and harassing the opposition, particularly just after City lose the ball (known as the counter-press) to shut down counter-attacks at source.

For a classic example, compare City’s home league games against Manchester United: this season a 2-1 defeat without Rodri, and last season a 3-1 win with Rodri.

Rodri earned 50 more touches (123 to 73) than Ilkay Gundogan, who was a replacement for the same fixture in 2024-23.

“The problem is we don’t rest with the ball”, Guardiola told the Athletic after the first-leg defeat by Real Madrid. We were able to complete 20, 25, and 30 passes in the opponents’ half in the team’s “big, big success,” but now we are unable to do it.

In order to stop opponents from finding the ball’s path in the event that the ball is lost, Guardiola’s philosophy has a guiding principle: to recompress the shape and stay in those perfected positions and establish familiar paths to find the goal.

To stay rigidly in those positions, or to get back into the regimental order after a difficult moment, you need those “rest” periods.

Without them, City would be spread out and a little wilder, and that is why they are now more vulnerable to quick breaks and individual errors from defensively panicked players out of positions.

Which brings us to the second part of the Rodri vacuum: defensive collapse.

What more compelling evidence can be found than Kylian Mbappe’s opener on Wednesday, when City pushed high but didn’t press, allowing Raul Asencio to fire one over the top.

City are worse at preventing quick breaks through the middle thanks to a weak press and counter-press.

It fits the eye test, and Manchester City can be passive either by failing to press together during the break or by allowing the game to pass them by.

A high defensive line that struggles to make contact with the gaps and an aging central midfield that can’t cover the gaps are disastrous.

The “mental issue” is another factor in the problem, as Gundogan suggested after their Champions League play-off first leg when he said: “You can see that we sometimes miss the ball or lose a duel and you see that we drop immediately and lose the rhythm,” as well as losing Ruben Dias, Manuel Akanji, and Ederson for some chunks of the season.

However, Guardiola may already be working on a two-pronged solution to the problem, which may extend to a deeper issue with tactical modernity.

Gonzalez provided what City have desperately wanted all season: control. Marmoush provided what they didn’t even know they needed: disorder.

It’s a pleasing counter-balance to reconnect with the past while driving into the future.

There are still areas for improvement, of course.

City’s wingers aren’t as lethal as they used to be. The issue of Haaland’s absence from the action outside the penalty area is still raging. Rico Lewis’s slump coincided with Rico Lewis’ difficult year, with him now being farmed out to AC Milan.

These issues, however, are fundamentally those that come from the epicenter, from the earthquake that initially shook Manchester City.