Iraq’s new parliament is meeting its first session on Monday in Baghdad, Iraq. This is a highly anticipated event as post-election Iraq wrestles with the issue of who will serve in parliament and who will be in charge of the new government.
There is only one issue with who will be the prime minister, but it is in the minds of current prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who was given temporary power by the Federal Supreme Court (FSC) in November, making his country a caretaker.
Al-Sudani will also need to demonstrate that he can manage the nation through a complex domestic and international position as he searches for new alliances to make up for a stumbling electoral bloc.
Return to the Framework
He wanted to use the time between the new parliament’s first session and election day, according to a source in al-Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Coalition (RDC).
He successfully contested the independent electoral list and won about 46 out of 329 seats, but the FSC ruling sent him back to the Shia Coordination Framework (SCF), the organization he had been trying to break free from when he was nominated four years ago.
He now faces opposition from the SCF leadership, many of whom operate as outside powerbrokers and do not have any control over the RDC’s victory.
The SCF’s biggest challenge is figuring out how to win this election, when Shia parties with armed wings won big while choosing al-Sudani or another candidate for the title.
Armed organizations have long participated in the SCF and participated in Iraq, but pro-Iran and anti-West armed groups have never had such a significant presence and voice in parliament.
A large number of Shia Iraqis are uneasy about Iran’s enormous influence in their nation because of the powers Iraq has relations with.
Armed factions are becoming more common.
80 to 90 of the roughly 180 MPs are held by the SCF, the majority of whom are US-admitted and affiliated with armed groups. In 2021, they held only 17 seats.
Faleh al-Fayyad, the head of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), received 10 seats in al-Sudani’s bloc, and Ahmed al-Asadi, the PMF’s minister of labor, received eight. He also leads the Jund al-Imam brigades, an armed group within the PMF.
Iraq could face off against the European Union, Gulf states, the United Kingdom, and the United States due to the increased involvement of pro-Iran, anti-Western armed groups in the government formation process.
The US has told Iraqi leaders that it won’t tolerate these groups, many of whom have long served as state-salaried organizations with political wings, holding positions in the government, according to Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein.
Prior to now, the US had unstated “non-engagement” policies with cabinet members who were members of armed groups and who continued to maintain normal relations with the rest of the cabinet.
Washington’s relationship to the incoming administration will largely depend on how well these groups are represented, a problem that is still pending.
However, it is still to be seen whether the US will impose more severe sanctions on individuals or take crippling steps that could cripple the country, such as sanctioning the SOMO or limiting Baghdad’s access to US Federal Reserve funds.
The US has already rewarded many of the kingmakers involved in the formation of the government, including Shibl al-Zaidi, the PMF chief al-Fayyad, and Asaib Ahl al-Haq leader Qais al-Khazali and Khadamat leader Shibl al-Zaidi.
Negotiations involving the formation of a government
Members of parliament will be sworn in when the session begins, and the parliament’s speaker will be chosen. According to the customary muhasasa system, which has existed since the first government under the post-2003 constitution, this candidate is a consensus Sunni candidate.
A Kurdish candidate will be chosen as the winner, according to Muhasasa. The president then chooses the SCF candidate for prime minister.
The FSC ratified the results more quickly than usual before the election, as President of the Supreme Judicial Council Faiq Zaidan had previously urged politicians to adhere to the constitutional timeline for creating a government, which is up to 90 days.
However, historically, no Iraqi government was created within constitutional deadlines, and the SCF’s struggle to find the right candidate while keeping the attention of the armed groups currently occupying parliament could slog along. In 2021, that time frame was more than 300 days.
Iran has historically played a significant role in achieving consensus among Shia factions regarding the prime minister.
Iran’s role this time is questioned because it is now weakened regionally as a result of Israeli and US attacks, a crippling economic crisis brought on by sanctions, and the degradation of its regional proxies.
Source: Aljazeera
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