Following the demise of the coalition-led coalition government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a snap election was called in December and will take place on February 23rd in Germany.
The economy, migration, and Ukraine’s conflict with Russia will be the main concerns for voters in this parliamentary election.
According to a poll conducted on February 12 by news outlet Politico, the main opposition, consisting of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), currently has 29% of voters and is ahead of the right-wing Alternative Fur Deutschland (AfD), which has 21%.
In the same poll, Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) was third with 16 percent, followed by Alliance 90/The Greens, commonly referred to as the Greens, with 12 percent.
Junior Professor Endre Borbath from the Institute of Political Science at Ruprecht-Karls-Universitat Heidelberg, told Al Jazeera that the resurgence of support for the CDU, which ruled Germany for 16 years until 2021 under former chancellor Angela Merkel before losing the last election, was “not that surprising”.
Many of the government’s priorities had to be cut down, he said because of the conflict in Ukraine and the resources required to support the Ukrainian side in this conflict.
Everything you need to know about the upcoming election is provided here.
Why did Germany hold a snap election?
In November 2024, Germany’s ruling coalition, a three-way alliance between the SPD, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), collapsed following disagreements over the country’s weak economy, which led Scholz to sack his finance minister, Christian Lindner of the FDP party.
After months of deliberation, Scholz claimed to have fired Lindner for his obstruction of the country’s budget, accused him of putting party before country and blocking legislation on false grounds, leading the FDP to leave the government, and fired him for it.
“Too often he has engaged in small-minded party political tactics. He broke my confidence too many times”, the chancellor said of Lindner.
The fiscal hawk, Lindner claimed, turned down the chancellor’s claim that the leader had tried to force him to stifle the president by attempting to impose a constitutional debt cap, which he had opposed.
In December, a confidence vote was held in parliament, which Scholz lost, paving the way for the February 23 parliamentary election.
Which main parties are contesting this election?
The country has two centrist party groups, Scholz’s SPD and the conservative alliance, which includes the CDU and CSU.
In recent years, these parties have been losing support, while smaller parties from both sides of the political spectrum, including the Greens and the far-right AfD, have gained support.
Besides these players, the FDP, a pro-market, neoliberal centre-right political party, the far-left Linke, and the left-leaning populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) are also running in the election.
What are the two main party leaders offering, and who are they?
Olaf Scholz, Social Democratic Party (SPD)
After running as a continuity candidate following the resignation of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who served as chancellor for 16 years, Scholz, 66, will run for office once more in the upcoming election.
During Scholz’s term as chancellor, he has led the country through several domestic and European issues, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
However, as disputes between members of his three-way coalition over the national budget have intensified, Scholz’s popularity has waned. As of January, only 31 percent of people said they approved of Scholz as the country’s leader, according to polling group Statista.
Friedrich Merz, Christian Democrats
The CDU’s leader, Friedrich Merz, 69, is well-known within the conservative bloc because he rose from a young man’s youth division and rose up the ranks.
Merz held the office of party leader between 2000 and 2002 before losing to Merkel, who later became the first woman chancellor in German history and had remained in office for the longest.
However, Merz frequently criticized Merkel and offered what many perceived as a more traditional and business-friendly approach than the then-German leader, who had more centrist views and opened Germany’s borders to refugees in 2015. Some people praised that move while others, primarily on the right, decried it. In recent years, it has also lost popularity.
So far, Merz has promised to stop what he called illegal migration, pledged “zero tolerance” on crime and said he will reverse marijuana legalisation.
With the CDU currently ahead in the polls, Merz is tipped to win the election.
But in late January, Merz drew controversy when he put a non-binding motion to Germany’s parliament to strengthen border controls and accelerate deportations. The motion was supported by the AfD, breaking a long-standing stifling barrier that had previously prevented mainstream parties from working with the far right, and giving Merkel a chance to publicly criticize Merz. For the first time in Germany, the far-right party has been used to pass laws.
Merz stated earlier this month at the CDU convention that he would “make the party as small as possible” and would not cooperate with the AfD despite the far-right’s support.
But Borbath, the professor, said that breaking the firewall had helped the AfD achieve some kind of “normalisation” within German politics. It was a “warning sign”, he said.
“I think it might also reflect some kind of deliberate strategy, such as testing out the discursive climate, observing what would happen, coordinating with the AfD, or assuming the AfD is viewed as a regular political party,” says one analyst.
What is the procedure for German elections?
Every four years, a general election is held, with the first election set for September 2025.
On Sunday, German citizens will vote twice: once for a local member of parliament and, secondly, for a party.
Each party also sends a number of MPs to the federal parliament (Bundestag) based on the vote share they gathered in the second vote, according to this system.
The second vote is regarded as the most crucial vote, which determines a party’s strength in the government and the number of seats it will receive overall in the Bundestag.
The seats will be distributed proportionately on the second votes in the 630 parliamentary seats up for grabs.
It’s possible to form a coalition government, but it’s uncommon for one party to have the overwhelming majority. Only the CDU/CSU won the election in West Germany during the parliamentary term 1957- 1961, the only election in which a single party dominated.
The new Bundestag will cast a ballot for whoever receives the most votes. The candidate must win the presidency’s absolute majority in order to be sworn in.
When do polling stations start operating?
Polling stations will be open from 8am (07: 00 GMT) to 6pm (17: 00 GMT) on Sunday when exit poll results are expected.
The polls close in a half-hour, and the final results are typically determined overnight.
What are the key issues?
Ukraine
In light of the country’s nearly three-year conflict with Russia, Scholz has taken a slightly more cautious position than the others, and he also emphasizes the need for diplomacy. The SPD, CDU, and Greens are the main parties who support providing aid to Ukraine.
Conversely, the AfD and the BSW , have called for an end to weapons deliveries to Ukraine and a resumption of relations with Moscow.
Germany is the second-highest supporter of Ukraine’s war efforts after the United States.
According to the German government, in 2024 Germany provided military assistance to Ukraine worth approximately 7.1 billion euros ($7.4bn).
Last week, the German news broadcaster, ZDF, published a poll that found that 67 percent of Germans support the government’s military support for Ukraine.
Economy
The key issue for this election is whether to reform Germany’s constitutionally mandated debt brake  to permit increased public spending.
The state may only spend money that it has collected in taxes, according to German law.
But the debt break allows for the government to borrow up to 0.35 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in emergency situations, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The debt brake should be changed to make it more affordable, according to Greens and Scholz.
Merz has indicated some reluctance to disclose this, but he continues to be cautious. He stated in a televised debate with Scholz last week, “I have always said that you can discuss this, but definitely not at first.”
” First comes the savings potential, growth and also the budget reallocations that are urgently needed, “he said.
The AfD and the FDP are steadfast supporters of the maximum amount of public money borrowed.
The AfD also wants to see Germany leave the European Union, reintroduce the Deutschmark, and stop using the euro.
Migration
Following a number of crowd-throwing attacks, including one in which a Saudi-born psychiatrist drove into a Christmas market and killed five people, almost all political parties have called for stricter immigration laws.
- The CDU has urged more stringent border controls, as well as restrictions on refugees’ ability to become citizens.
- The far-right AfD has demanded that asylum seekers’ rights to family reunification be abolished and that borders be closed.
- The SPD has pushed for stricter border controls and deportations of people who enter the country illegally, such as by boat. However, at the same time, it also wants to bring in more foreign skilled workers.
- The Green Party is the only organization supporting an open-door asylum policy, supporting state-backed sea rescue initiatives, facilitating family reunion, and supporting refugees’ integration into German society.
Borbath said, however, that after an Afghan asylum seeker drove a car into a crowd in Munich on Thursday, most parties are likely to toughen their stance on immigration.
Source: Aljazeera
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