Who are the contenders and pretenders in NFL play-off race?

NFL 2025 season: Week 11

With the NFL season having passed the halfway mark, thoughts have turned to the play-off picture.

Some teams are sure to miss out on the post-season while some seem nailed on, but there are still plenty of places up for grabs.

With eight weeks of the regular season remaining, NFL pundit Phoebe Schecter was joined on The Whole 10 Yards by Jori Epstein – a senior NFL reporter for Yahoo Sports – to decide who are contenders and pretenders.

The NFL standings are split into two conferences of 16 teams, with each split into four divisions of four.

Seven teams from each conference qualify for the play-offs – the four division winners plus the three teams with the next best league records.

The three teams in each conference that secure wild-card spots will all play away during the first week of the post-season.

The AFC Conference has provided the biggest surprises so far this season as the Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots and Denver Broncos all top their division with an 8-2 record.

What’s more, Josh Allen’s Buffalo (6-3), Patrick Mahomes’ Kansas City (5-4) and Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore (4-5) are all playing catch-up, so could any of those MVP-winning quarterbacks miss out on the post-season?

Schecter, a former assistant coach at the Buffalo Bills, said: “The defence needs some work, but when you have Josh Allen you’re going to be contenders.”

The Kansas City Chiefs have reached five of the past six Super Bowls, winning three, but are currently third in the AFC West behind Denver and the Los Angeles Chargers.

“Nonetheless, the Chiefs are contenders,” said Epstein. “The defence has been strong throughout, even when the offence was figuring it out, and we saw that in the years of Tom Brady at New England.

“They used the beginning of the season to figure out what they’re working on, and by the end of it, you should be afraid because they figured it out.”

The Chargers are 7-3 and Schecter expects the Chiefs to reel them in as their offensive line has “not been the same” since losing Joe Alt to injury.

The Baltimore Ravens slumped to a 1-5 start, from which only 1% of teams have previously gone on to reach the post-season, but they have won all three games since and quarterback Jackson is back from a minor injury, while AFC North leaders Pittsburgh have lost three of their past four.

“I think that Baltimore are contenders,” said Epstein. “The offence is settling, the defence is getting healthier and they’re about to play the Browns, the Jets and the Bengals before they see the Steelers.

“Pittsburgh’s offence started off doing alright, but you could not trust their defence,” added Epstein.

“Now their defence is getting back to the Steeler way, but Aaron Rodgers and his targets are not on the same page. I do not trust them to hold off the division, much less get into the play-offs.”

Schecter sees the Jacksonville Jaguars as pretenders in the AFC South but believes the Cincinnati Bengals could nick a wild-card spot in the AFC North. Quarterback Joe Burrow is set to return from injury but their defence has allowed more points than any other team.

In the NFC Conference, there are two standout contenders in their divisions – the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) and the defending champions, the Philadelphia Eagles (7-2).

But the other two divisions are so competitive that up to three teams could qualify from each, with both the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams having a 7-2 record atop the NFC West.

Veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford led the Rams to a memorable Super Bowl victory in 2022 – and they host the Seahawks this Sunday.

“The Rams are such a complete and balanced team and Matthew Stafford is playing at an MVP level,” said Epstein.

Schecter added: “The Seahawks still don’t have much of a run game, but they are one of the most explosive offenses. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been phenomenal, he’s leading the league’s receivers.”

The San Francisco 49ers (6-4) have a favourable run over the next few weeks but injuries could ultimately cost them a place in the post-season.

Schecter says the Detroit Lions (6-3) are “absolutely a contender” because “it’s on every single level that they’re making an impact”, but who else will qualify from the NFC North?

The Green Bay Packers (5-3-1) have not quite lived up to their pre-season billing as Super Bowl contenders, but Epstein says “they have one of the best defences in the league. I think they’ll figure out their offensive inconsistency enough to get into the play-offs”.

The Chicago Bears are currently 6-3 and although quarterback Caleb Williams is enjoying an improved second season under their new head coach, they have a tough finish.

“What their offence has done in that first year under Ben Johnson is exactly what the Bears want to see and should give them real encouragement for next year,” Epstein said.

“But I think there’s going to be a numbers game and it’s going to be a rough answer for the Bears.”

Someone must take that seventh play-off spot, though, so will it be the 49ers, the Bears or maybe even the Carolina Panthers behind the Bucs in the NFC South?