Where Ryder Cup battle will be won and lost

The past five Ryder Cups have ended in resounding victories for the home side.

Will Bethpage change this week as the US competes to reclaim the title that Europe so successfully won in Rome?

There are a number of reasons why Europe is being tipped to win for the first time since 2012, despite the bookmakers having the home side as slight favorites.

In the immediate aftermath of victory in Rome, Rory McIlroy called winning an away match “one of the toughest things to do in golf”.

He raised the bar a little more on Thursday, stating that Europe has a chance to “go down as one of the greatest Ryder Cup teams in history” this week.

And the final winner will likely depend on the opening session on Friday.

In each of the past five events the overall victors have trounced the visitors in the first-day foursomes. In these sequences, Europe won only half a point out of 12 in 2014, 2018, and 2023.

Four years ago, the US won the record 19-9 victory at Whistling Straits by winning the opening foursomes 3-1. In 2016 they won the Friday foursomes session 4-0 at Hazeltine and Europe never truly recovered.

Europe leads 1112-411 in foursomes in the most recent away matches of 2016 and 2021. They appear to be having any chance this week if they can reverse this trend.

A quick start is also crucial because it could help determine whether Bethpage’s infamously boisterous fans will change it from the playground it has always been into a “bear pit.”

The build-up has been dominated by talk of how the home fans will treat the away players.

American Collin Morikawa described the practice days as “tame,” with a large number of kids who were looking for autographs. He anticipates “absolute chaos” on Friday.

Keeping the fans subdued will be high on Europe’s agenda.

In the “walloping in Wisconsin” of 2021, the US won by ten points, the home supporters cheering on encouragement on the first tee midway through Justin Thomas’ beer-swilling, can-throwing antics.

The American players found the stands that swung over the first tee in Rome to be too intimidating the previous time. They failed to win the opening hole in any of the first dozen matches as Europe romped to an early lead they wouldn’t relinquish.

The visitors have been doing a charm offensive, signing thousands of autographs and taking selfies, but they are aware that the noise will be turned up on game day. As at Whistling Straits four years ago, the visitors have been doing it.

Luke Donald, the European captain, gave his players virtual reality headsets that could be abused in a variety of ways. A gimmick perhaps but if it provides a marginal gain for one player it will have been deemed worth it.

Robert MacIntyre alluded to controlling the controllables, and Robert MacIntyre simply said, “It’s my job to play good golf,” as his team-mates have frequently said.

Since playing a key role in the last team to win away in 2012, the famed “miracle at Medinah,” when Europe recovered from 10-4 down late on Saturday to win 14.5-13.5, Justin Rose is aware of the importance of getting European blue on the board.

“As soon as we were able to flip the script, the crowd did change, they did go quiet”, he told BBC Sport.

Luke Donald does not lose Ryder Cups. He won four games as a player. As a captain, one was won and one led.

The experience of winning in Rome has laid the perfect foundation for this week. With only one face in his dozen in Rasmus Hojgaard replacing his twin brother Nicolai from Rome, his build-up appears calm. This is helped by the presence of a unified team.

And he has delivered his thoughts in a confident manner while on script in New York, perhaps with a sly nod at the Americans being paid for the first time at a Ryder Cup during his opening ceremony speech.

His opposing number has had a more cluttered countdown. After Tiger Woods declined to lead the team, Keegan Bradley admitted more than a year ago that he was as surprised as anyone else when he was asked to do so.

The majority of his subsequent year was spent deciding whether or not he would make his debut as player-captain since 1963 when Arnold Palmer was in charge. Eventually sense prevailed and Bradley, who finished 11th on the US qualifying list, opted to focus solely on the leadership role.

However, he then messed up Wednesday’s opening ceremony speech. When he said, “I was 13 years old, perched on my dad’s shoulders, watching Justin Rose’s miracle putt drop on 17,” he intended to refer to Justin Leonard’s notorious putt at 1999’s “Battle of Brookline” and the subsequent contentious celebrations, despite Jose Maria Olazabal having a shot to half the hole.

A sign of nerves?

With 32 appearances between their dozen and 15 for the US, Europe undoubtedly has more experience playing.

Naturally, Europe’s players have won more points too, leading 68½-30 in that category.

Only two players, aside from Donald, who was also on that team at Medinah in 2012, are the only two to have won away from Europe.

They both came to New York on the back of excellent years, accumulating 3312 points from 13 combined appearances.

McIlroy became just the sixth player to complete the career Grand Slam by winning the Masters in April, while Rose, beaten in a play-off at Augusta by his team-mate, won a PGA Tour title in August

Tommy Fleetwood, Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Shane Lowry all returned for a second tilt on US soil despite Rose’s absence from Whistling Straits.

Fleetwood once remarked, “All of us on that team didn’t feel like we did ourselves justice,” which was a huge motivating factor for Rome.

But that works both ways and he pointed out the US players will “have been hurt from last time”, adding “they’ll want to win in front of their home crowd, and that’s just as it should be”.

The Americans’ standout player is undoubtedly Scottie Scheffler. The runaway world number one won six major titles, including the US PGA and Open Championship, in addition to his previous best year.

However, Sir Nick Faldo is adamant that Scheffler will be the only player Europe will fear this week.

Faldo told BBC Sport, “Scottie will be a target because he’s meant to win.” That’s a victory, if you only manage to score him one half point. The rest don’t scare me”.

Scheffler and Brooks Koepka lost 9&7 to Viktor Hovland and Ludvig Aberg in a rookie season at Whistling Straits in 2021, but they were left speechless in Rome after their respective victories came back this week.

Given that Faldo and Justin Thomas both have the best Ryder Cup records on the US team, they might have something to say about his comments.

Given he is a huge fan of the sport, it is not surprising that US President Donald Trump will be on site on Friday.

Fans, media, and volunteers are being urged to arrive early because the course will be extremely secure, and organizers want to avoid the disruption Trump’s earlier appearance at the US Open men’s tennis final earlier this month.

Bryson DeChambeau, who has played with Trump, said, “I hope he will inspire us to victory.”

“I think he’ll be a great force for us to get a lot of people on our side. Watching the reaction of the crowd and everyone will be fascinating and fascinating.