Where F1 title may be won and lost in three-way fight

This weekend’s showdown on Abu Dhabi’s Yas Marina circuit will determine the Formula 1 drivers’ championship.

As they travel to a track that has previously hosted a number of dramatic climaxes, Lando Norris leads Red Bull’s Max Verstappen by 12 points and McLaren team-mate Oscar Piastri by 16 respectively.

This weekend has everything needed for another.

With his significant points advantage, Norris emerges as the paper favorites for the weekend.

Over the course of the season, the McLaren has been the fastest car on average. It leads the field in terms of qualifying time, with 0. 274 seconds over the regular season and 0. 203 seconds over the previous eight races.

However, this year’s drivers split their victories equally between them: Norris, Verstappen, and Piastri, who each have seven victories. George Russell of Mercedes won the other two grand prix victories.

With only six races left, McLaren have dominated the constructors’ championship, which they won at the Singapore Grand Prix on October 1st.

However, the presence of two aggressive drivers in a consistently winning car refutes that. No other team has benefited from combining those two elements.

Verstappen, by contrast, has scored more than 92% of his team’s points this year despite having no experience with him and having no impact on his title defense, and Red Bull has dropped him for the season as a result.

Each car has its own set of strengths, and competition has fluctuated throughout the season.

Verstappen only triumphed at the Qatar Grand Prix last weekend as a result of McLaren’s strategy error. Otherwise, McLaren territory was covered by that track’s long-duration medium- and high-speed corners.

Abu Dhabi also has some protracted corners, particularly the hairpin on the first long straight and the protracted Turn Nine at the end of the second main straight.

However, the McLaren is not at its best when braking into chicanes or the 90-degree, short-duration corners that make up the final sector of the marina and hotel.

And Red Bull has the fastest straight-line speed.

The fight appears to be well balanced in terms of track characteristics.

Verstappen has won four races in Abu Dhabi, winning each one there between 2020 and 23.

However, Verstappen’s victory in the 2021 championship showdown with Lewis Hamilton’s Mercedes was highly content, and the rules were only settled after the race director’s late safety-car period was settled.

Additionally, the three drivers are not comparable in any way.

For a start, this is only Piastri’s third F1 season. Verstappen has been in the F1 since 2015, and Norris has been in the F1 since 2015.

Verstappen has won races on and off since 2016, but Norris did not even have a vaguely competitive car until 2023.

Throughout the season, the competitiveness between the teams and drivers has changed.

The Red Bull and McLaren only competed on circuits with high-speed corners like Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Imola in the first half of the season.

Over the first 14 races of the season, Piastri and Norris were the more successful drivers overall, with some issues with the car’s handling.

However, Norris has improved significantly since the summer break, reversing Piastri’s 34-point lead at the end of August.

Verstappen was 104 points off the championship lead after the summer’s slump in Red Bull form.

Verstappen’s run of three victories and a second place in four races ended in September and October due to adjustments to their car for the Italian Grand Prix at the beginning of September.

The more challenging task is assigned to McLaren. They are aiming for a championship win with two drivers in contention, and they have committed to allow them to compete fairly together until one of them is no longer.

However, the team’s stated objective is for one of their drivers to win the title, which they don’t care for. Don’t therefore exclude McLaren’s use of any particular type of team tactic.

For instance, if Verstappen wins and Piastri ranks first in the top three with Norris in fourth, the Dutchman will be the champion. However, Norris would retain the title if Piastri reversed and let him finish in the top three.

In those circumstances, McLaren would ordinarily approach Piastri to lend a hand to Norris, but only when it is obvious that the Australian’s hopes have come to an end.

Verstappen is alone at Red Bull. Except if a McLaren somehow stumbles into the shadows of one of Tsunoda and the two Racing Bulls of Isack Hadjar and Liam Lawson, two of which are Red Bulls.

Norris is undoubtedly under more pressure than anyone else.

McLaren has been the driver’s championship leader for the entire year, and he has looked like the team that will win the drivers’ title.

McLaren has his first drivers’ title chance since Hamilton won in 2008, and at the same time, he has his first chance to win it.

Yes, Hamilton was in mathematical contention in 2010, but he was only 24 points behind, so he was not really in contention.

McLaren have also undergone a fundamental change, and the majority of the team has not, despite team principal Andrea Stella having previously competed for the title alongside Michael Schumacher, Kimi Raikkonen, and Fernando Alonso.

Their relative lack of rawness has shown at times this year, especially in Qatar, where they were the only team to not pit against a safety car and ultimately lost the game.

As a result, recent days will have likely seen some soul-searching and thorough analysis. It would be understandable to experience some anxiety and apprehension.

Red Bull and Verstappen are both well-versed in this circumstance. They are a ruthless, expertly honed winning machine with the ability to win the last four drivers’ titles.

The pressure is off as a team and driver who has already done it and who did it not anticipate.

Whether or not he wins, Verstappen has said it before and has said it will not alter my life.