What we know about Pakistan-Afghanistan ceasefire, will it hold?

Following a week of deadly clashes along their border, Pakistan and Afghanistan have come to terms with an “immediate ceasefire,” which is at their lowest level since the Taliban’s rule in 2021.

Both countries agreed to stop fighting and work towards “lasting peace and stability” after peace talks in Doha, the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Sunday, about the deal it mediated alongside Turkiye.

Dozens of people have been killed and hundreds wounded in the worst bout of violence in recent years. After Islamabad allegedly launched strikes in Kabul and the southeast of Paktika against what it claimed were armed groups linked to attacks inside Pakistan, the violence broke out on October 11 at various fronts along their 2,600km (1, 600-mile) border.

What are the current findings regarding the truce and what might follow?

What do we know about the ceasefire?

The two sides “agreed to an immediate ceasefire and the establishment of mechanisms to consolidate lasting peace and stability between the two countries,” Qatar’s Foreign Ministry announced in a statement in the Qatari capital Doha.

The two parties also agreed to hold follow-up meetings in the coming days to ensure the ceasefire’s viability and ensure its effective implementation, contributing to the establishment of security and stability in both nations, according to the statement.

Following the Qatari ministry’s statement, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif posted confirmation of the deal on X.

Asif remarked that “cross-border terrorism from Afghan territory will cease immediately.” Both nations will respect one another’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.

Asif further confirmed a “follow-up meeting between the delegations is scheduled to take place in the Turkish city of Istanbul on October 25 to discuss the matters in detail”.

Ishaq Dar, the deputy prime minister and foreign minister of Pakistan, described the truce as “the first step in the right direction.”

“We look forward to the establishment of a concrete and verifiable monitoring mechanism, in the next meeting to be hosted by Turkiye, to address the menace of terrorism emanating from Afghan soil towards Pakistan. He stated on X that it is crucial to take all necessary steps to stop any additional fatalities.

According to Zabihullah Mujahid, the spokesperson for the Taliban, “both sides reiterate their commitment to peace, mutual respect, and the maintenance of strong and constructive neighborly relations.”

” Both sides are committed to resolving issues and disputes through dialogue, “Mujahid said in a post on X”. No nation has decided to oppose the other and not to support organizations that attack Pakistan’s government.

The nations have agreed to “never” target one another’s security forces, civilians, or critical infrastructure, according to Mujahid.

Mujahid, as well as Dar and Asif, thanked Qatar and Turkiye for their role in facilitating the talks that led to the ceasefire.

Why has Pakistan attributed the Taliban’s attacks to its own territory?

Pakistan wants the Taliban to oust armed organizations that are linked to TTP, the Taliban, and other organizations that are accused of attacking its territory. Armed attacks by TTP rebels and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which operates in the resource-rich Balochistan province, have surged in recent years, with 2025 on track to become the deadliest year.

The violence has hit Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, which border Afghanistan, hardest.

According to the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), an Islamabad-based think tank, at least 2, 414 deaths have been reported for the first three quarters of this year.

Pakistan and the Taliban, once allies over shared regional security interests, have fallen out as Islamabad claims that Afghanistan is giving haven to the TTP – an allegation Kabul has rejected.

The Durand Line, which is recognized by Pakistan but not by Afghanistan, and Kabul and Islamabad have also been at odds with one another.

The Taliban in Afghanistan share TTP’s ideology. However, the groups have different goals and operate independently.

Pakistan has gotten assurances from the Taliban that these organizations, which operate in porous border regions with Afghanistan, won’t be able to run freely and that border attacks won’t stop.

The Taliban spokesman, Mujahid, stated in a post later on Sunday that “the Afghan soil will not be used against any other country.” It is” the consistent stance of the Islamic Emirate “he said, referring to the official name of the Afghanistan government.

He posted on X and said, “It does not support any attack against anyone and has always stressed this stance.”

Islamabad also wants the Taliban to prevent the regrouping or expansion of anti-Pakistan networks&nbsp, within Afghanistan, which&nbsp, the government considers a threat to Pakistan’s stability and broader regional strategy.

Kabul-based political analyst Abdullah Baheer called the bombing of Afghanistan and the killing of civilians “a problematic model.”

He told Al Jazeera, “Tell me one piece of evidence that they hit any TTP operative in Afghanistan in the past week of bombing, despite the 50 dead and 550 injured.”

He added that the TTP is a local rebel group within Pakistan that far precedes the Taliban’s coming to power in Afghanistan”. Do you anticipate the Taliban to intervene and prevent the TTP from pursuing any of its political or military objectives? He inquired.

” Let’s take the argument that TTP are operating from safe havens within Afghanistan. You can use influence over an independent group to the extent that it exerts control over them, he continued.

The Taliban, as previously stated, refuses to provide TTP with a safe haven within Afghanistan’s borders.

Why the spike in attacks inside Pakistan?

After being overthrown by US-led NATO forces in 2001, Islamabad was the country’s main supporter. It was also accused of providing refuge to Taliban fighters during their 20-year armed rebellion against American occupation of Afghanistan.

But relations have soured over the surge in attacks inside Pakistan.

According to a report from the independent nonprofit Armed Conflict Location &amp, Event Data (ACLED), the TTP has resurfaced as one of Pakistan’s biggest national security threats. In the past year, it has carried out more than 600 attacks on Pakistani forces.

The Islamabad-based think tank CRSS reports a 46% increase in violence in the first three-quarters of this year compared to last year.

The violence attributed to the TTP had decreased from its peak in the late 2000s and early 2010s after Islamabad involved the armed groups in talks and addressed some of their demands in 2021, which include the release of their members from prison and an end to military operations in the tribal areas.

The TTP also demanded that the tribal region’s and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province’s merger of 2018 be reversed. One of their demands is for their interpretation of Islamic law to be stricter.

A month after the Taliban took over Kabul in August 2021, it mediated talks between the Pakistani military and the TTP, a decision endorsed and pushed by Imran Khan, Pakistan’s then-prime minister. However, in April 2022, Khan, who supported negotiations with the armed groups, was fired as prime minister.

After the TTP unilaterally withdrawn from the ceasefire agreement in 2022, accusing Islamabad of resuming its military operations there, violence erupted.

Since its founding in 2007, the TTP has targeted civilians and law enforcement personnel, resulting in thousands of deaths. More than 130 students were killed when they targeted the Army Public School (APS) in Peshawar in December 2014, according to their deadliest attack.

The US has designated the group a “terrorist” and the organization is still prohibited in Pakistan.

The Pakistani army has conducted multiple operations to eliminate the group, but has struggled to achieve its goal as fighters have used the porous border to move back and forth between the neighbouring countries.

There are “no winners in war,” according to Baheer, the political analyst. Only losers exist.

Source: Aljazeera