What do stats say about Premiership after the split?

The Scottish Premiership split was hailed as a tool that introduced end-of-season intrigue and introduced the league into the 21st century when it was introduced in the 2000-2001 season.

With three teams still in contention for the top six spot, the final game of the season certainly brought that.

However, if you ask Opta Sports’ analytics team, it’s likely that the positions will not change until the end of the season.

The top six’s only realistically capable positions can change hands.

No wonder Opta rates the chances of Brendan Rodgers’ side blowing their 15-point lead at 0% from Saturday’s trip to face Dundee United because Celtic only need a draw to win the league title.

Rangers also have a 13-point advantage over Hibernian, making it almost certain that they will finish second.

St. Mirren are 97.4% certain to remain sixth despite having three of their five matches to go in Paisley despite being nine points clear of Aberdeen and Dundee United.

In other words, the Hibs, United, and the Dons are competing for third place and the European qualification spots in a three-way battle.

Let’s take a look at the top three contenders for the European spots available for grabs, which are more in-depth analyses.

After a run of just one defeat against Celtic in the Scottish Cup, Hibs are rated at 80% and move up to third place over the other two.

United have three of their last five home games won, while their rivals only have three on the road, with three straight victories ahead of them.

However, one of the Tannadice members is opposed to Celtic, which could be counteracted by another member’s opposition to St. Mirren.

Aberdeen are also on a roll, winning seven games without losing in the Scottish Cup semi-final against Heart of Midlothian on Saturday.

However, Jimmy Thelin’s men’s side has so far beaten their two rivals for third place by six points from other top-six teams.

Additionally, one of their two remaining home games will take place against a Celtic side that has already defeated them three times this season.

None of the bottom six teams will have much confidence going into Saturday’s opening games.

In four appearances, Hearts and Motherwell have lost just one game, while Kilmarnock has won one in seven, Dundee has won just two in nine, and St. Johnstone has won just one in five.

Hearts’ six-point lead over Dundee in the relegation play-off spot appears precarious, with Motherwell being even worse off and even more in danger.

Opta points out that Hearts, who have three home games to go, only have a 0.1% chance of finishing second bottom while Well, who have just two matches at Fir Park, are rated at 4.1%.

It is statistically unlikely that all three sides would be able to accumulate enough points to take the Steelmen or their Edinburgh rivals at the same time, with Kilmarnock and County four points behind Well and Dundee a further two.

Four teams are now battling to avoid the bottom two spots.

Despite starting on the same points total, Kilmarnock, six points clear of St. Johnstone at the bottom of the table, is awarded only a 2.3% of finishing last. County is awarded a 8.3%.

The Ayrshire side has three games at Rugby Park, where they have won seven of their league points while their home rivals, Dingwall, have just two.

Hearts will be in good company in the seventh spot, but County would beat Kilmarnock and share Motherwell if their form against rival bottom-six teams continued.

County have a 33.8% chance of placing in the play-off spot with home games against Hearts and Motherwell, which is only 0.4% better than Dundee.

Only Motherwell have conceded fewer points against their bottom-six rivals this year and, along with the Lanarkshire side, have collected the fewest points since the start of the year, compared to the Dark Blues, who only have two of their games away.

At Tynecastle, Hearts have won their last three home games, and they are also beginning their bottom-six campaign.

In the event that St. Johnstone makes a late survival attempt, it makes sense why Opta thinks Dundee is the most likely side to be caught.

However, that is unlikely given that Saints with an 80.1% guarantee face automatic relegation.

However, Simo Valakari’s team still have three of their five games in Perth and the third-best record when facing bottom-six teams.