Donald Trump, the president of the United States, announced on Tuesday that the two countries had reached an agreement on a draft mineral deal that, in his opinion, could be worth about $1 trillion. In the midst of unrest over Washington’s outreach to Moscow in an effort to end the Ukraine war, many analysts view the proposed deal as  as an attempt by Kyiv to sway the new US administration.
The alleged agreement comes a week after Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, rejected a draft proposal. Prior to the US-Russian talks to put an end to the Ukrainian conflict, the leader of the country had previously voiced his opposition. Zelenskyy claimed on Wednesday that the deal was a “ramework economic agreement” and that Kviv has not yet received any security guarantees from the US.
In recent days, Trump and Zelenskyy’s public disagreements have sparked fears in Kyiv and other European cities that Trump might strike a deal with Moscow to put an end to the conflict.
What we currently know is as follows:
What are our current knowledge of the minerals deal with Ukraine?
Trump stated to reporters at the Oval Office on Tuesday that Zelenskyy wants to meet with Trump in Washington on Friday to sign a “very big deal.”
“I hear that he is coming on Friday. Certainly, it’s OK with me if he would like to. And he wants to sign it with me, which I am aware of.
Trump claimed that American taxpayers would receive their money back as the deal could be worth up to $1 trillion.
Zelenskyy claimed on Wednesday evening that the US-US cooperation agreement, which he claimed was an economic framework, does not currently contain any US security guarantees.
However, according to the Reuters news agency, the draft deal , did say that the US wants Ukraine to be “free, sovereign and secure”. Zelenskyy rejected a previous draft agreement last week because it contained information on Ukraine’s security guarantees, according to media reports. The draft agreement’s specifics have not been made public.
Zelenskyy demanded on Monday that Kyiv be admitted to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in order to protect his country, but he stated that he was willing to resign for the sake of peace. But Washington has dubbed the NATO membership demand “unrealistic”.
“This is hugely significant, because certainly, according to the Ukrainians we’ve been speaking to all week, this]deal] is seen as a means for Donald Trump to basically get what he wants”, Al Jazeera’s Charles Stratford said.
The deal is “looking at harvesting up to 50 percent of Ukraine’s minerals and rare earth materials”, said Stratford, reporting from Kyiv, adding that the timeframe is uncertain.
Rare earth minerals are a group of 17 heavy metals found in the Earth’s crust globally. Some of the rare earth elements such as neodymium, lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, yttrium, terbium and europium are used in the manufacture of high-tech products such as computer hard drives, television and mobile screens and camera lenses.
Why does Trump want Ukraine’s minerals?
The US president has claimed that in exchange for the billions of dollars that Washington has provided in its previous three years of fighting Russia, he wants minerals from Kyiv.
Earlier this month, he told reporters in the White House that he wants “equalisation” for the close to $375.8bn Washington has sent Ukraine. He reiterated this on Tuesday, saying: “We’re spending hundreds of billions of dollars on Russia and Ukraine fighting a war that should have never, ever happened”.
Trump’s estimates of aid to Kyiv conflict with official US government data. According to Ukraine Oversight, a website created by the US government to track aid sent to Ukraine, the US had already distributed $ 183 billion as of September 30th, 2024.
China is currently the world’s top producer of rare earth minerals, according to a report released in 2024 from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in which it extracts at least 60% of the world’s supply and processes at least 90% of it quasi-monopolically.
According to the US Geological Survey, the US was dependent on China, Malaysia, Japan and Estonia for 80 percent of its rare earth needs in 2024.
Since taking office on January 20, Trump has imposed tariffs on allies such as Canada as well as China, Washington’s biggest rival, shaking global markets.
His goal is to make the US the center of big tech, and he wants to get a rare earth deal with Kyiv. During his campaign, he also accused another close US ally, Taiwan, of stealing the US’s chip business. He threatened to impose tariffs on Taiwan, a major computer chip exporter. Taiwan pledged to boost US investment in the wake of the tariff threats.
Trump made the announcement last month that the country’s government would invest $500 billion in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. Trump has pressed Apple Inc. to invest $500 billion in the US, which would be in response to his announcement on Tuesday. Apple devices, including its bestseller iPhone, are mostly manufactured in China.
Theresa Fallon, director of the Center for Russia Europe Asia Studies and senior fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, reported to Al Jazeera, “Donald Trump appears to have broken all norms in international policy by doing this.”
“It’s OK to be transactional”, said Fallon, but “this is just extortion”, she said.
What essential minerals are present in Ukraine?
According to the Russian-language service of the UN news report from 2022, Ukraine has 22 of the 34 substances that the European Union classifies as “critical raw materials.” This is a percentage of the world’s stock, with reserves accounting for 5% of that number.
“About five percent of all the world’s ‘ critical raw materials ‘ are located in Ukraine, which occupies only 0.4 percent of the Earth’s surface”, Svetlana Grinchuk, Ukraine’s deputy minister of environmental protection and natural resources, said during a UN meeting in 2022. With an area of a little over 600, 000sq km (232, 000sq miles), Ukraine is Europe’s largest country by area, outside Russia.
The Ukrainian Geological Survey reports that Ukraine accounts for 7% of the world’s titanium production. According to the report, Ukraine’s reserves correspond to the world’s production of titanium by 15 years. Ukraine also has reserves of graphite, nickel and cobalt.
Ukraine has said that its rare earth minerals and other critical minerals, such as tantalum, niobium, and beryllium, are in six locations across the country.
What has Zelenskyy said?
Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, confirmed on Wednesday that there was a deal in the works, but referred to it as a wider-scale economic partnership initiative rather than just a minerals deal.
He also confirmed that Ukraine does not have, so far, any , security guarantees against Russian aggression.
Zelenskyy was quoted by the Associated Press as saying, “I didn’t let the ministers sign a relevant agreement because it isn’t ready to protect us, our interests,” according to Zelenskyy, who was speaking at the Munich Security Conference on February 15.
Given that Moscow annexes large swathes of Ukraine, including Crimea, in 2014, it has been pressing for entry into NATO to ensure its security.
Zelenskyy once more reaffirmed his opposition to the agreement that the US sought to control $500 billion in Ukraine’s natural wealth. He also questioned Trump’s claim that Kyiv had received more than $ 350 billion in aid from Washington.
“One cannot count up to $500bn and say, ‘ Give us back $500bn in minerals. ‘ That’s not a serious discussion”, Zelenskyy said on February 19.
What has been the European response?
The rare earth deal appeared to be in favor of French President Emmanuel Macron. “Macron himself endorsed this plan, he saw it as being something as significant, that could potentially lead to the beginnings of a true peace negotiation”, Al Jazeera’s Stratford said.
Macron also backed Trump’s peace efforts, but cautioned against a deal at the cost of Ukraine’s “surrender”.
After meeting with Trump in Washington, Macron said, “This peace must allow for Ukrainian sovereignty and allow for negotiations with other stakeholders.”
After Trump withdrawn Ukraine and European leaders from the Ukraine peace talks, Macron made a diplomatic visit to Washington. Washington’s NATO allies were also blindsided by Trump’s overture to Russian President Vladimir Putin. In response to Trump’s dramatic policy change regarding Ukraine, Macron also organized two meetings.
Trump’s peace plan and his demands that European countries provide security to Ukraine have divided Europe. Trump thinks that the US is paying almost the price for its support for Ukraine, and he wants Europe to take the lead.
Trump supports the idea of “a form of peacekeeping that’s acceptable to everyone,” despite the Kremlin’s opposition to any European force station in Ukraine.
The United Kingdom and Sweden have offered to deploy troops in Ukraine as part of a future peace deal, but Germany, the eurozone’s biggest economy, is opposed to the idea. Macron said that Europe “needs to do more… to more fairly share the security burden” during his meeting with Trump.
Additionally, nations in Europe are considering raising their defense budgets in response to Trump’s demands.
Outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz criticised Trump’s push for the rare earth deal as “very egotistic” and “very self-centred”. According to Scholz, Ukraine needs its natural resources to recover from the effects of war.
Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) which won Germany’s election on Sunday, has slammed Trump’s attacks on Zelenskyy.
Source: Aljazeera
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