US-Japan trade deal – will this one be too tricky for Trump?

US-Japan trade deal – will this one be too tricky for Trump?

Before the deadline to reinstate global tariffs that he halted three months ago, US President Donald Trump stated this week that he is not confident the US will reach a trade agreement with Japan.

Trump also threatened to impose tariffs of 30 to 35 percent on Japan if a trade deal is not reached, particularly with regard to US car sales.

Japanese auto and electronic manufacturers, whose exports to the US support the country’s economy, are concerned about this.

What are our current knowledge’s regarding the US-Japan trade talks?

What was Trump’s response to Japan’s trade agreement?

As the deadline for the end of a reciprocal tariff pause approaches on July 9, the majority of Washington’s trading partners are looking for trade deals.

The US and Japan have been engaged in long-term trade negotiations. Ryosei Akazawa, the country’s chief trade negotiator and economic minister, is organizing his eighth trip to the US as soon as this weekend, according to a report from Japanese television company TV Asahi on Wednesday.

According to US federal data, the US and Japan had a $69 billion trading deficit in 2024. Trump wants to wrap up this. However, he expressed doubts this week regarding the totality of a trade deal between Washington and Tokyo.

We’ve handled Japan,” he said. Trump told reporters on Tuesday on the Air Force One, “I’m not sure if we’re going to make a deal with Japan. I doubt it.”

It’s really difficult for them to make a deal because they and others have ripped us off for 30 to 40 years.

Trump threatened Japan with new tariffs, but why?

If no agreement is reached by the time the reciprocal tariff pause is lifted on July 9, Trump threatened to impose a tariff of “30 percent or 35 percent” on Japan. Throughout this pause, there has been a basic 10% tariff on imported US products, including those from Japan.

Trump unveiled a 24 percent tariff on Japan on most products, excluding cars, aluminum, and steel on April 2, as part of his “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariff announcement.

Trump claims that he won’t be extending the reciprocal tariff pause.

Vehicles and car parts from Japan as well as from other nations are subject to a 25% tariff once they are reinstated. According to a Trump order signed on June 4, aluminum and steel imports from all nations, including Japan, are subject to a 50% tariff.

Trump is now focusing solely on Japanese rice purchases, alleging that the country does not purchase any from the US. He wrote on his Truth Social platform on Monday, “I have a great respect for Japan, they won’t take our RICE, and yet they have a massive rice shortage.” Trump continued, “We’ll just be sending them a letter, and we’ll love having them as a Trading Partner for many years,” without giving any specifics about the letter.

Trump also asserted that US automobile sales are nonexistent in Japan. He stated to reporters on Air Force One this week, “We didn’t give them one car in ten years.” Trump also claimed that Japan does not purchase American cars in an interview with Fox News on June 29 and that it was unfair.

“So what I’m going to do is I’ll write them a letter saying, “We thank you very much,”.” We are aware that you can’t provide the services we need, so you’ll be required to pay a 30%, 35%, or whatever the numbers are,” Trump said this week. Because, as you may well well know, we also have a significant trade deficit with Japan, which is unfair to Americans.

Does Japan purchase US cars and rice?

Yes . According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), a trade data research organization, Japan purchased $354.7 million of rice from the US between May 2024 and April 2025, contrary to what Trump previously reported to reporters this week.

Since the US price of locally grown rice has increased, Japanese imports have actually increased. Producing and distributing the rice that was available by the spring of 2024 was a result of an extreme heatwave in 2023.

Additionally, on August 8, 2024, an earthquake struck southern Japan, which caused rice to be in stores and a rice shortage. Rice from its own emergency stockpile has been chosen by the government.

According to data from the Japan Automobile Importers Association, Japan imported 14, 724 US passenger vehicles worth $1.04 billion in 2024.

However, this is not as much as the US is selling Japanese cars. For instance, Japan imported cars worth only $1.25 billion from the US in 2023 while doing so in the same year, according to the OEC.

On April 16, 2025, US President Donald Trump meets with Ryosei Akazawa, Japan’s chief trade negotiator, and his team in the White House’s Oval Office in Washington, DC. [Photo: Reuters]

Why else have trade negotiations between the US and Japan stalled?

A June 20 national election will put pressure on the Japanese government. The Liberal Democratic Party of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has historically been a significant supporter of the party.

In trade negotiations with the US, trade negotiator Akazawa declared on Tuesday that Japan would not sacrifice its agricultural sector.

Agriculture is the foundation of the country, as I’ve said it before. Our stance on the American-US negotiations is unchanged: we won’t go into discussions that would compromise the agricultural sector, Akazawa said in a press conference.

Ishiba opposes any Trump-related trade agreement that doesn’t reduce car tariffs.

Ishiba said on Wednesday in a debate with opposition leaders that “Japan is unique from other countries because we are the biggest investor in the US and create jobs.” We’ll continue to defend our national interest as long as our main focus is on investment rather than tariffs.

Additionally, as the largest foreigner in the US, Japan is stronger than many other nations. Recent reports suggest that Japan may have more than $1 trillion in US Treasury securities as a leverage in trade negotiations.

Has Trump’s threat of higher tariffs been implemented in Japan?

Japan has so far declined to comment on this.

Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki said, “We are aware of what President Trump said, but we don’t comment on every remark made by US government officials.”

How much do US exports affect Japan’s economy?

Japan depends more heavily on the US for exports than the other way around, despite having a sizable amount of US debt. According to the OEC, the US is Japan’s largest export market, accounting for 19.1% of all global exports in 2023.

Source: Aljazeera

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