New Delhi, India — Numerous Indian analysts hailed Donald Trump’s ostentation when he re-entered the White House in January, arguing that his bonhomie with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi would protect the nation from the chaos it might engender.
The two leaders had effectively campaigned for each other previously, attending joint rallies. They have repeatedly referred to one another as friends, and Modi was one of the first leaders from around the world to visit Trump in the White House in February.
But six months later, a sobering reality has hit New Delhi, with Trump punishing it with a 25 percent tariff on imports and near-daily threats to increase those levies further because of India’s oil purchases from Russia, as he tries to force Moscow into accepting a ceasefire in its war on Ukraine.
Some experts believe that there is still room for improvement in an India-US trade agreement and that bilateral relations are slipping. “US-India relations are at the lowest point in decades”, Biswajit Dhar, a trade economist who has worked on several Indian trade deals, told Al Jazeera. Lower tariffs are being applied to dozens of other nations, including those with which India has tense ties, such as Pakistan and Bangladesh.
Addressing a public rally on Saturday, Modi took a defiant stance against Trump’s tariff assaults. “The world economy is experiencing a lot of anxiety.” There is an atmosphere of instability”, Modi said.
There should be just one scale for everything we buy, he said, adding that we will only purchase items made by Indian laborers.
Modi’s comments come as Indian officials reportedly reject stopping the buying of Russian crude.
Trump has attributed part of the Russian oil boom to India, which helped pay for Moscow’s occupation of Ukraine. “They]Indians] don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine”, , Trump said Monday. I will significantly increase the tariff that India has already paid to the USA because of this.
So, how did we get here? What are India’s and the US’s growing points of disagreement? And could India give up on Russian oil to save its relationship with the US?
What issues are the US-Indian relations experiencing?
Modi and Trump might speak highly of each other, but there is a growing number of areas where India and the US are at odds, ranging from trade agreements to strategic alignment.
No agreement on trade
Trade has long been a sticking point in US-India relations, even as strategic and defence ties have deepened. For the past several years, the US has consistently pushed for greater market access, lower tariffs, and stronger protections, particularly for its tech, pharmaceutical, and agricultural exports. India, on the other hand, has resisted what it sees as disproportionate pressure to open up its economy in ways that may harm its domestic industries and small farmers.
Despite their imbalance, India sold twice as much to the US as India did before Trump. The US wanted access to India’s growing markets, and India needed to export to the US, so keeping ties afloat was important to both.
Indian and US officials began discussions to put together a trade deal after Trump first imposed tariffs on almost all trading partners on April 1. But disagreements over e-commerce regulation, digital data flows and price controls on medical devices have reportedly stalled progress.
Officials in India were relentlessly pursuing Trump’s August 1 deadline to avoid tariffs. But despite occasional breakthroughs, like India cutting tariffs on some US goods, the two countries have not yet concluded a full bilateral trade deal.
Trump has threatened unspecified additional penalties related to India’s energy and arms purchases from Russia as a result of ongoing negotiations.
“This is a pressure tactic by Trump”, said Anil Trigunayat, a former Indian diplomat who has served as India’s trade commissioner in New York. He continued, using the acronyms “micro, small, and medium enterprises,” noting that India has not given in to what the Americans want.
Almost half of India’s population depends on agriculture for its livelihood, making the issue politically sensitive for every Indian government.
He told Al Jazeera, “Everyone is playing hardball on both sides, and it’s necessary to come to a mutually beneficial solution.”
India’s close ties to Russia
As Trump’s frustrations with Russia mount over stalled peace talks to end the war in Ukraine, the US president has been looking for more ways to corner Moscow. Washington has become increasingly interested in India because of its long-standing relationship with Russia.
While the US views India as a key partner in countering China’s rise in the Asia Pacific, it has grown increasingly uneasy with New Delhi’s continued defence and energy ties with Moscow, analysts say.
Vladimir Putin, a Russian president, is also facing an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for the crimes he did in the Ukraine during his two visits to Russia last year. In July 2024, Putin conferred upon Modi the Order of St Andrew the Apostle the First‑Called, Russia’s highest civilian honour.
Russia continues to be one of India’s largest arms exporters, providing essential technologies like nuclear reactors and missile systems. And after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, India ramped up imports of discounted Russian crude oil.
ceasefire in Kashmir
After an attack by gunmen in Indian-administered Kashmir’s Pahalgam resort town on April 22, in which 26 civilians were killed, India and Pakistan engaged in their most expansive military conflict in decades.
Trump claimed he intervened and demanded a ceasefire from both countries as the nuclear-armed rivals from South Asia exchanged missile and drone attacks in May.
“Fellas, come on. Make a deal, folks. Let’s do some trading. Numerical missiles should not be traded. Let’s trade the things that you make so beautifully”, Trump said a few days later in Riyadh.
“I used trade extensively to carry out [the ceasefire].” And it all stopped”, he added.
Trump’s claim that he orchestrated the May 10 ceasefire that put an end to the fighting has sparked criticism from Modi in India, which has long held the position that all disputes with Pakistan must be resolved bilaterally and without using third-party mediation.
Modi’s government has insisted that the truce was brought about bilaterally, that Modi did not speak to Trump during the conflict, and that – contrary to the US president’s claims – trade was never discussed as a factor in negotiating the ceasefire. Trump has since repeated his assertions, mentioning the phrase “broke the peace” more than 30 times.
Growing US-Pakistan ties
Asim Munir, the army chief of Pakistan, was hosted by Trump at the White House following the ceasefire between India and Pakistan in May. Never before had a US president hosted a Pakistani military boss who was not also the head of state.
After years of tense ties, the US military officials credit Pakistan with aiding in the capture of wanted “terrorists” for their growing warmth.
The government of Pakistan also officially endorsed Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for “recognition of his decisive diplomatic intervention and pivotal leadership during the recent India-Pakistan crisis”.
Trump called Modi a “fantastic man,” but added that Munir had been “extremely influential” in bringing about the ceasefire the day after meeting him.
“I love Pakistan”, Trump said, and repeated: “I stopped the war between Pakistan and India”.
Trump took to his Truth Social platform to claim that he had reached a deal with Pakistan that would allow them to collaborate on developing oil reserves as he attacked India in his most recent tariff attack. “Who knows, maybe they’ll be selling Oil to India some day”! he wrote.
Later, the US imposed a 19 percent tariff on imports from Pakistan, which Islamabad hailed as “balanced and forward-looking”.
hiring big tech, deportation, etc.
Days before Modi visited Trump in February, visuals emerged of Indian citizens in the US, shackled in chains, parading towards a US military aircraft, prompting anger in India over the treatment of its nationals.
Returnees, who are illegal immigrants entering the US without visas, described being stranded for nearly 40 hours on the flight to India. Like trade, the issue of deportation has been at the centre of Trump’s re-election campaign.
Additionally, there are other types of illegal immigrants.
After assuming the presidency, Trump’s administration has also come under pressure from the president’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) base to crack down on H1B work visas, nearly 72 percent of which go to Indians.
Trump praised tech companies like Google, Microsoft, and Apple for hiring employees from India at a summit on artificial intelligence in Washington, DC last month. Trump declared, “The days of hiring workers in India are over”, and urged companies to prioritise jobs for Americans and disconnect from outsourcing models tied to India and China.
What’s the latest spark in US-India tensions?
Trump tried to persuade Putin to accept a ceasefire, but now it appears that Russia is at the forefront of a new wave.
On Monday, Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that “India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits”.
One of the US president’s most influential aides, Stephen Miller, the deputy chief of staff at the White House, previously attributed India’s purchase of Russian crude to funding Moscow’s conflict in Ukraine.
“What]Trump] said very clearly is that it is not acceptable for India to continue financing this war by purchasing the oil from Russia”, said Miller.
“People will be shocked to learn that China and India are essentially tied to one another when it comes to buying Russian oil.” That’s an astonishing fact”, Miller told Fox News’s Sunday Morning Futures.
India is the second-largest buyer of Russian oil after China, which imports nearly 2 million barrels of crude oil each day from Russia. Russia also tops the list of India’s arms suppliers.
What is India’s response to Trump?
On Monday, India’s Ministry of External Affairs responded sharply, calling the US’s targeting of New Delhi over the buying of Russian oil “unjustified and unreasonable”.
It criticized the West for using double standards, citing Russia’s increased trade with Russia in 2024 as well as US imports of fertilizers and chemicals.
It also said that the US has “actively encouraged” it to buy Russian oil, so that global crude prices would stay under control while the West could reduce its dependence on Russian energy.
The statement read, “India will take all necessary steps to safeguard its national interests and economic security.”
Will India stop buying Russian oil to please Trump?
According to experts, that is highly unlikely.
India has historically — since independence from Britain in 1947 — cherished its strategic autonomy, including during the Cold War, when it stayed non-aligned. It has strengthened its traditional friendship with Russia while preserving its strategic and military ties with the US since the end of the Cold War.
“Trump is trying to wean India off its strategic autonomy policy by going after its ties with Russia and membership in BRICS”, Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC, told Al Jazeera, referring to the Trump’s threats of higher tariffs against members of the bloc that includes several leading nations of the Global South.
“But in response to Trump’s pressure, Delhi won’t abandon this policy.” On the contrary, I expect it to double down”.
Ajit Doval, India’s national security adviser, flew to Moscow late on Tuesday. Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar is expected to visit Russia later this month. Additionally, for the first time since the Ukrainian invasion of 2022, New Delhi has confirmed that Putin will be traveling to India later this year.
In recent weeks, India has also indicated that it is open to reviving a trilateral grouping including Russia and China, the West’s two big rivals.
Can America or Europe renounce their strategic autonomy? asked Jayati Ghosh, economics professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. “India has more people than the two countries combined,” he says. It is absurd to even think that India can give up that”, she told Al Jazeera.
What does this mean for future of US-India relationship?
In response to Dhar, the economist, Kugelman claimed that US-Indian relations have “seen at their lowest level over the past 20 years of strategic partnership,” which began to develop in the early 21st century.
Non-alignment with foreign governments “remains a critical component of India’s foreign policy”, said Kugelman, adding that he expects that to continue.
Trump is penalizing [New Delhi] for trying to maintain the balance [between the US and Russia] because “India maintained this balance after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” he said. “]That’s] something that the Biden administration never did”, he added, referring to the previous administration of US President Joe Biden.
Former diplomat Trigunayat argued that “strategic autonomy for India is more important than ever.” India, with the world’s largest population, has its own approach to strategic autonomy that’s in the DNA of Indian foreign policy”.
Kugelman predicted that in the long run, New Delhi would have hoped that Trump’s anger would eventually subside, which would most likely happen if Russia agreed to put an end to the conflict in Ukraine.
Source: Aljazeera
Leave a Reply