Trump wants China’s ‘help’ to deal with wartime Russia. Will he get it?

Ukraine, Ukraine, and Kyiv rely on Chinese-made components for their drones, jamming devices, and fiber optic cables to prevent jamming.

One of the pioneers of drone warfare in Ukraine claims that Beijing could immediately and utterly ban the imports if it wanted to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

Andrey Pronin, the owner of a drone school in Kyiv, told Al Jazeera that “almost every component is made in China.” China “could cut off our or our side,” he said.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, Beijing supplies Moscow with four-fifths of drones, electronic chips, and other dual-use items that end up on the front lines to maintain the Russian military’s grip.

In response to Beijing’s export restrictions, Ukraine is trying to wean itself off of Chinese drones, but they still make up a staggering 97% of components, according to the Washington, DC think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Donald Trump, the president of the United States, hopes that Xi Jinping’s summit with Trump’s Chinese counterpart will change that.

Trump reaffirmed his desire to work with Russia on October 24 after halting his discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin and imposing sanctions on two Russian oil companies.

On the occasion of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet in Seoul, South Korea. Their most recent meeting took place in Osaka, Japan, in 2019.

Zelenskyy hopes the meeting will “help us all.”

Beijing denies directly playing a role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict despite claims that it is officially neutral about the conflict. However, it serves as Moscow’s primary political and economic supporter.

Moscow is understood by observers to be assisting Beijing in “returning” Taiwan to its fold by disclosing information about the use of drones, the vulnerabilities of Western-supplied weapons, and the operation of airborne troops.

Beijing is purchasing discounted oil, gas, and raw materials in the face of mounting Western sanctions, paying Moscow tens of billions of dollars annually.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, wants Trump to target that area in Xi’s discussions.

Trump said on Monday, “I think it will help us all if we can come to an agreement with China about the reduction of Russian energy exports.”

However, Trump’s most recent sanctions against state-owned oil company Rosneft and the private Lukoil company could unintentionally strengthen Beijing.

Both businesses will have to sell their foreign subsidiaries, reducing their involvement in international projects, particularly in former Soviet Central Asia and several African nations, where Chinese companies could replace them.

Xi’s contribution to the end of the war is crucial, according to Volodymyr Fesenko, the head of the Kyiv-based Penta think tank.

Russia can’t continue the war, he said, “without the financial support and without the economic cooperation with China.” Russia’s main economic resource is China.

He continued, “Beijing] would have accomplished this war very quickly if it had wanted to end it. It would suffice to discuss China’s harsh position with Putin in private, non-public conversations.

Beijing, however, stated Fesenko, “has no desire or desire to give a gift to Trump.”

As the White House sought to restrain China’s expanding global influence and its access to Western technologies during his first term in office, ties with Beijing deteriorated.

Beijing threatened to stop the flow of crucial minerals, so China and the US have set tariffs on mutual exports, and Washington promised to halt technology transfer. Trump and Xi have more business to do than Russia, where their countries are currently at war with one another, so the Russia-Ukraine conflict is unlikely to rule the summit.

“Freezing the War”

Beijing has also been investing heavily in new infrastructure while strengthening its economic clout in Eastern Europe, which was Moscow’s former home base.

According to Fesenko, “The escalation of the war and its spread to Europe are things that go against China’s interests.”

Washington and Beijing may want to keep the conflict a simmering or thawing without allowing Moscow or Kyiv to achieve a decisive victory, argued Igar Tyshkevych, an analyst in Kyiv.

Washington won’t gain from Russia’s overwhelming victory, he claimed, as the Kremlin will undoubtedly seek the position of a “third global leader.”

Russia’s complete defeat, however, would not benefit Beijing or Washington because both are concerned about destabilization near their northern and northern frontiers.

Washington is actively working to end the war, according to Tyshkevych. If Beijing continues to move in the same direction, I won’t be surprised.

If the war is frozen, it’s possible that it will rekindle once Russia recovers economically and has enough resources.

Kyiv would look to establish new or expanding partnerships, particularly with those with the European Union and its individual members as well as with Turkiye and Pakistan, both of which have friendly ties to Beijing.

And Putin is still offering Trump numerous incentives.

According to reports, it is proposed to build infrastructure along the Arctic Sea to cut down shipping times from Asia to Europe by weeks.

Moscow also considered a joint project to develop Russian oil and gas fields in Russia’s Far East, sell Russian natural gas to Europe, and supply rare earths, which are important for US tech giants.

Putin may also suggest that Russia’s expertise in processing used nuclear fuel from US power plants be used in post-war situations, as well as developing nuclear security agreements, including non-proliferation.

Source: Aljazeera