Thousands of glaciers to melt each year by midcentury, study finds

The world could lose thousands of glaciers each year over the coming decades unless global warming is curbed, leaving only a fraction remaining by the end of the century, scientists warn.

A scientific study published on Monday in Nature Climate Change warned that unless governments take action now, the planet could reach a stage of “peak glacier extinction” by midcentury with up to 4,000 melting each year.

About 200,000 glaciers remain in the world, and about 750 disappear each year. That rate could rise more than fivefold if global temperatures soar by 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) from pre-industrial levels and accelerate global warming, according to the report, which predicted only 18,288 glaciers would remain by the end of the century.

Even if governments meet their pledges to limit warming to 1.5C (2.7F) under the Paris Agreement, the world could still end up losing 2,000 glaciers a year by 2041. At that pace, a little more than half of the planet’s glaciers would be gone by 2100.

That best case scenario appears unlikely. The United Nations Environment Programme already warned last month that warming is on track to exceed 1.5C in the next few years. It predicted that even if countries meet promises they have made in their climate action plans, the planet will warm 2.3C to 2.5C (4.1F to 4.5F) by the end of the century.

Monday’s study was published at the close of the UN’s International Year of Glacier Preservation with the findings intended to “underscore the urgency of ambitious climate policy”.

“The difference between losing 2,000 and 4,000 glaciers per year by the middle of the century is determined by near-term policies and societal decisions taken today,” the study said.

Coauthor Matthias Huss, a glacier expert at ETH Zurich university, took part in 2019 in a symbolic funeral for the Pizol glacier in the Swiss Alps.