‘This storm has been coming’ – how Cardiff lost way

Agonising, embarrassing and, ultimately, inevitable.

More than just one disappointing season, Cardiff City’s relegation has been on the cards for a long time.

And the results have been disappointing.

No team has won fewer games in the Championship, and having gone through three managers during this campaign – making it eight in the past four years – the Bluebirds will be playing in the third tier next season, for the first time since 2003.

Many people will wonder why Cardiff is in such a mess when they have been promoted to the Premier League twice in the last 12 years and still have a wage bill that is higher than two-thirds of its Championship peers.

The unavoidable truth is that this club’s demise is not an accident; rather, it is the shocking outcome of a long-term trend.

“It’s been an inevitability staring us in the face. It’s death by a thousand cuts – I’ve felt it’s been coming for years,” former Cardiff striker Nathan Blake told Wales’ BBC Sport.

Instead of just focusing on the team or manager, there is a lot of responsibility that needs to be shared by many people. You do have to look at those above and say ‘ maybe you’ve run your course’. They must have abandoned their strategy, in my opinion, quite a while ago.

Cardiff’s first season without a manager since 2019 had actually started this season with a reasonable optimism.

Erol Bulut led the Bluebirds to a respectable 12th-place finish after several relegation fights.

The hope was that they could build on that foundation but, instead, Cardiff made the worst start to a season in their history and Bulut was sacked after picking up just one point from their opening six games in the Championship.

Although his replacement Omer Riza oversaw a start-up, it wasn’t until December, in the midst of a nine-game winless run, that he was chosen to lead Bulut’s place until the end of the season.

Under Vincent Tan’s 15 years in charge of the club, Cardiff have had 16 different managers. Managerial instability is not new.

But even by their standards, the protracted appointment of Riza drew sharp criticism from fans, with one supporters ‘ group writing an open letter raising” serious concerns “about the state of the club.

Given that Riza’s only prior EFL managerial experience was a brief spell in which he helped Leyton Orient be relegated to the National League in 2017, there were significant doubts about his suitability for the position.

Jason Perry, a former Cardiff captain, believes that the club’s “chaose” at the board level and the club’s toxic atmosphere had limited their options, while relegation rivals were appointing experienced Championship operators Gary Rowett and Mark Robins to help them stay safe.

“They’ve not sleepwalked into this situation, they’ve run into it. It’s an incredibly badly run club,” Perry tells Wales’ BBC Sport.

Many supporters have followed this club for a while, but some have since said they are never going to return.

“They are supporters who saw more bad days than good days but they felt part of something, that the club represented them – but they don’t feel that now.

The Tan era’s obsession with toxicology has been reflected in fan protests and unrest at games.

Deep divisions have not fully healed for some even a decade after Tan’s decision to switch Cardiff from their traditional blue to red was reversed in 2012.

More recently, supporters have voiced their anger with two large demonstrations this season against the owner, chairman Mehmet Dalman and chief executive Ken Choo.

Many people believe that Cardiff’s constant sway from one crisis to the next as a result of the club’s lack of football expertise, which detracts from its long-term strategy or plan.

The board hasn’t done anything since they first stepped through the door, according to Blake, “and they don’t know what they’re doing.”

” Things need to change. Who knows whether they will or not, but I’m not sure where this ends.

This city and these fans deserve more, they say. To have a billionaire owner and still be in the position we’re in… there needs to be a plan. The board needs to be more effective. Nothing changes until things change at the top, in my opinion.

That was what fans were demanding at a protest before the draw against Oxford United on Easter Monday.

“We’ve been fighting a relegation battle for four years and we’ve had enough of it. The owner just doesn’t want to know,” Chris, one of the leaders of the protest holding a banner that read ‘Tan Out’, told Wales’ BBC Sport.

“He hasn’t been to a game for years. Tan is no longer our strength. It can’t get any worse for us, even though we’re not sure who would take his place.

Therein lies the issue for those who want Tan gone: Cardiff are utterly dependent on their owner and there are currently no feasible alternatives.

In its most recent accounts for the 2023-2014 season, the club reported pre-tax losses of £11.6 million, which further supports Tan’s position.

The Malaysian businessman’s total debt, which is estimated to be £68 million, has increased by adding an additional £11.83 million in loans.

The club said the loans will be written off or converted to equity, while interest is also being waived. Tan also has written commitments to continue supporting him in writing.

The total of £40.33 million has also been increased by an additional £11 million on loans from directors and other connected parties.

Dalman accounts for a large amount of that £40.3m so, although fans may call for the chairman and board to be sacked, it is not a case of simply dismissing a man so heavily invested in the club.

They won’t be moving until Tan and Dalman can sell Cardiff to a buyer who will match their asking price. The club can’t continue without Tan, in any way, for now.

Cardiff will remain a club that is divided as long as Tan stays and the supporters do not make the desired change.

There have been times when old wounds appear to have healed. Tan was carried on some supporters’ shoulders as they poured onto the pitch at Cardiff City Stadium on the day the Bluebirds were promoted to the Premier League in 2018.

The relationship is beyond repair, according to many others.

“The situation looks hopeless for us”, says Gwenllian Evans, who follows the team home and away.

“I believe that many people still hold Tan and the board accountable for their actions. Tan’s apparent lack of interest in the club appears disappointing.

As well as corroding the club’s very soul, that division between its hierarchy and fanbase can affect matters on the field.

When asked if he thought the club was united in its fight against relegation during his time there, Riza responded with “no I don’t,” before adding: “I think the expectations are so high at this club.”

The Premier League has a club that has done well, and the fans want to do well, they say.

“You already know the divides. I don’t believe we will ever get better until that all comes together and there is acceptance of what it is and how we can move forward together.

A few days after that interview, Riza was fired, a decision that came too late to alter the start of Cardiff’s season.

Dalman, Choo and other board members are believed to have wanted him gone during the March international window, some thought they should have pulled the trigger back in January.

Neil Warnock had been pounced on a dramatic return to the club he had saved from Championship relegation and that he had replaced with the Premier League, but Tan chose to stay at Riza, which turned out to be very detrimental.

Attendances will likely decline as a result of Cardiff’s transition to League One, which will cost the organization millions of pounds in lost revenue from television coverage, sponsorship, and prize money.

There is no guarantee of a swift return to the Championship either. Cardiff’s return to this level after being last demoted to the third tier in 1985 took 18 years.

Six of the 29 Premier League teams that were relegated to League One have never returned to the Championship.