The Wallabies can beat the Lions, here’s how – Horwill

James Horwill has a theory that the Sea of Red, certainly by the third Test, gets a bit salty.

“The Lions fans aren’t the best at blending in,” says Horwill, who skippered the Wallabies on the Lions’ last visit in 2013.

“Some of them I don’t think bought anything else apart from a Lions jersey last time.

“They’re probably packing light, saving on the airfare – not paying for checked luggage for a three-week vacation. “

The arrival of the Lions and their supporters, along with 2027 and 2029 Rugby World Cups and the 2032 Olympic Sevens, has been pegged as a ‘golden runway’ of events to get union on the up Down Under.

To really achieve lift-off though Australia needs winning Wallabies.

“The expectation of our national team is that they win and win regularly,” Horwill explained.

The bookies are less confident – the Lions are heavy favourites. But Horwill sees areas where they can be exposed.

“Depending on how [Wallaby head coach] Joe Schmidt goes with selection, I think we might have size in the back five [second and back rows],” he says.

In contrast, the Lions have plenty of back-row options, but their squad prioritises mobility, speed and athleticism over heavy-duty gain-line ball carriers.

Schmidt, meanwhile, has called up 6ft 8in lock Will Skelton, whose 22-stone frame comes at defences at a surprising pace.

Horwill likes the balance the hosts have struck.

“In Rob Valetini and Harry Wilson we have two genuine world-class eights,” he said.

“I think Fraser McReight will be the starting number seven and he is a difference maker for us.

“He’s an out-and-out fetcher but also is that link between the forwards and the backs.

“On the northern hemisphere tour last year, the only game McReight didn’t play was the defeat against Scotland and Australia just didn’t have the same flow, understanding or functionality.

Jake Gordon or Nic White may start at scrum-half, but Horwill says Tate McDermott could be a star turn as the tourists tire in the final quarter.

“Tate has had an excellent Super Rugby season. He is probably the best nine in the country, but his ability to attack teams with his feet might come into play as a replacement,” says Horwill.

“You could play a gameplan to tire out the Lions and then bring on Tate in the last 20 to 30 minutes to attack those fringes and pick off the defenders around the ruck, which he does so well. “

The last time the Lions toured Australia, Israel Folau, playing his first game of international rugby, scored two tries in Australia’s narrow first-Test defeat.

“Izzy was the most naturally freaky sort of athlete that I’ve ever played with,” says Horwill.

“Wherever we put him around the field, someone would have to mark his aerial threat – sometimes double mark him – and that would then create opportunities for others.

“Izzy just made everything look so easy, he moved and jumped so effortlessly for a big guy and Joseph’s got a lot of that about him. “

Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii – Australia’s 6ft 5in big-money import from rugby league – was inspired by Folau as a boy, and the 21-year-old has shown similar aerial ability.

With the Lions looking unconvincing in the battle for the skies against Argentina and struggling to regain kick-offs against Western Force, he will be chasing and leaping hard.

“Wherever Joseph is you are going to see defenders bunching around that area – maybe there’s an opportunity to kick elsewhere and get a bit of ascendancy,” says Horwill.

For all the interest in England flanker Henry Pollock’s supersonic ascent to the upper reaches, Australia have their own bolters.

Corey Toole was part of the Australian sevens team that finished fourth in the Olympics in Paris a year ago, but 11 tries in the Brumbies’ 16-game run to the Super Rugby Pacific semi-finals have given him a shot of stepping on to the biggest stage in the XV-man game.

And Max Jorgensen, the 20-year-old son of former Wallaby Peter Jorgensen, is back from an ankle injury in time to contend on the wing as well.

“The one thing you have got in Australia’s back three is genuine pace,” says Horwill.

“Corey Toole has got real gas and he has certainly bulked up a lot over the past year. He barged over Damian McKenzie to score against the Chiefs in that Super Rugby semi-final – if he does get an opportunity he is really exciting.

“Jorgensen is the sort of prodigious talent we’ve been building around.

This will be the first series since 2013 that Horwill has watched from the southern hemisphere after he followed a stint at Harlequins with a degree at Cambridge University.

“I just probably didn’t appreciate how big it was – the enormity and the importance of it to the fans, and the importance of selection to the players,” said Horwill.

“Football’s number one, it’s everywhere, but for this period, the Lions is on the front and back pages.

“I was living In Putney in London and for that first Test against New Zealand in 2017, I walked along the street at 8am and every pub in Putney was red. “

Horwill will be playing host to his own Lions tourist this year. Wales centre Jamie Roberts, who scored the final try as the Lions ran away with the third deciding Test 12 years ago, was at Quins with Horwill.

“It’s funny how the world works,” says Horwill.

“That third Test is probably the only in my international career that I would like to have back for another run at it.

“Back then, in 2013, we probably never thought we’d be playing together, let alone become quite good friends.

“He was a great guy to have around at Quins and more importantly been a good mate since.