Syrian army advances on SDF stronghold of Raqqa: What’s the latest?

After capturing Tabqa, the northern strategic city and its military airport on the Euphrates River, in a lightning offensive, the Syrian army is moving towards Raqqa, the stronghold of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), headed there.

Government forces captured the Euphrates Dam, also known as the Tabqa Dam, about 50km (31 miles) west of Raqqa city, after heavy fighting with SDF forces. In Raqqa governorate, which has been under the control of the SDF since 2015, government forces have amassed large amounts of military equipment.

After talks to enlist the Kurdish fighters in Syria’s national army were unsuccessful, fighting broke out between the army and SDF forces in Aleppo on January 6. The SDF’s heavy weapons were to be laid down and handed over control of Aleppo’s regions to the national army by the end of the month’s conflict.

So what’s the latest situation on the ground? Will the Syrian army’s offensive increase the conflict in northern Syria?

What is the latest from Syria’s northeast?

About 40 kilometers (24 miles) west of Raqqa, the Syrian army seized control of Tabqa on Sunday. Additionally, it seized the Freedom Dam and the largest Euphrates Dam in the nation, which is adjacent to the strategic city, as well as the largest Baath Dam.

Government-allied groups said they have taken control of the Asayish headquarters, the security and police force in the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, in the town of Markada while tribal fighters allied with the government have taken control of several major oil- and gasfields in the northeast, including Jafra and Conoco located in Deir Az Zor province bordering Iraq.

According to the Reuters news agency, Syrian forces seized the Rasafa and Sufyan oilfields in Raqqa, which could now be returned to production.

The SDF was accused of using drones in areas east of Deir Az Zor, another SDF stronghold in the northeast, by Syrian state media on Sunday.

Video clips and live footage published on social media and verified by Al Jazeera show celebrations in the cities of Hajin and al-Shuhayl in the eastern countryside of Deir Az Zor after news of the withdrawal of the SDF from the area. As fighting continues to rage, the Deir Az Zor governorate has ordered the closure of all public buildings for the safety of the residents.

After the recent rapid territorial gains, Syrian police spokesman Noureddine al-Baba informed Al Jazeera that police have secured all of the country’s captured areas.

On Saturday, the SDF withdrew from Deir Hafer and some surrounding villages in Aleppo governorate that are home to predominantly Arab populations, after which Syrian forces moved in, triggering celebrations. About 50 kilometers (30 miles) east of Aleppo city lies Deir Hafer.

According to Hussein al-Khalaf, a Deir Hafer resident, “it happened with the least amount of losses.” “There’s been enough blood in this country, Syria. Too much has been sacrificed and lost. It’s getting old for everyone.

The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, affiliated with the SDF, on Saturday accused the Syrian government of violating a withdrawal agreement, saying it “attacked our forces on multiple fronts since yesterday morning”. Raqqa’s attacks, which are a source of thousands of ISIL (ISIS) detainees, may pose a security risk, according to the SDF.

Nearly four years after the armed uprising against President Bashar al-Assad, the US-backed SDF, an alliance of Kurdish and Arab militias, was established. Al-Assad remained in power until he was ousted in December 2024 by Syrian opposition fighters led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, who is now interim president.

According to the Syrian Ministry of Information, Tom Barrack, the US envoy for Syria, will visit Damascus on Sunday for a meeting with Mazloum Abdi and al-Sharaa.

The rift between al-Sharaa’s government, which has pledged to reunify Syria after 14 years of war, and distrustful Kurdish authorities has grown as a result of the renewed fighting. On Friday al-Sharaa issued a decree declaring Kurdish a “national language” and granting the minority group official recognition.

How significant is Raqqa’s control?

Northern Syria’s largest oil- and gasfields are located in Raqqa, which has an Arab-majority governorate.

Kurdish anxieties have been sharpened by sectarian bloodshed last year when almost 1, 500 Alawites were killed by pro-government forces in western Syria and hundreds of Druze were killed in clashes in the south.

Arab civilians gathered in the streets to celebrate the victory of the Syrian army in these areas.

This demonstrated the SDF’s social and demographic fragility. Now the question is, will the SDF see this reality and agree to demands by Damascus to integrate into the Syrian state”, Omer Ozkizilcik from the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs said.

Syrian affairs analyst Omar Abu Layla claimed that the Damascus authorities “didn’t listen to him” despite making numerous attempts to negotiate with the SDF.

Abu Layla claimed that the central government had made numerous offers to the SDF, but that the organization “wasted time,” assuming Damascus’s authorities were weak, and that almost a year had passed since a March agreement that would have allowed the SDF’s forces to be integrated into the regular army.

“What]we] are witnessing now in the region is the end of the SDF”, he argued.

What did the Syrian army and the SDF agree on in March?

Abdi and al-Sharaa reached an agreement on March 10.

The agreement emphasised the unity of Syria and stipulated that “all civil and military institutions in northeastern Syria” be merged “into the administration of the Syrian state, including border crossings, the airport and oil and gas fields”.

Additionally, the agreement stated that the Kurdish people have guaranteed constitutional rights and are a part of Syria.

After the SDF and Syrian army’s agreement was broken, intense fighting broke out in Aleppo’s Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh neighbourhoods last month. A US-brokered ceasefire took effect on January 10.

The Kurdish nationalist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has been fighting the Turkish state for decades, has ties to the SDF’s secular Kurdish leadership. The PKK is still listed by Turkiye, the European Union, and the US as a “terrorist” group despite the announcement it made in May to lay down its weapons and disband.

Despite this, the US backed the SDF because it was an effective partner against ISIL, which the SDF and a US-led coalition defeated in northeastern Syria by 2019.

What has the US done?

Washington has urged Syria’s army to halt its incursion into Kurdish-held territory.

Admiral Brad Cooper, who is in charge of US Central Command, which oversees the US military’s Middle East operations, wrote in a statement published on X that the Syrian army should “cease any offensive actions in areas” between Aleppo city and Tabqa.

West of Tabqa, Aleppo is roughly 160 kilometers (100 miles).

Cooper argued that working together with US and coalition forces is necessary to pursue ISIS and apply relentless military pressure to Syrian partners. “A Syria at peace with itself and its neighbors is essential to peace and stability across the region”.

Former US diplomat and professor William Laurence said: “The US will have to work very hard to resolve the political impasse between Syria’s government and the SDF.

Trump wants the “quick fix,” and he wants Tom Barrack to “kind of wave a magic wand and get what he wants. But that’s not really how things work”, Laurence told Al Jazeera.

Trust-building is essential to sustainable solutions, and we haven’t had much of it.

What has Al-Sharaa said?

After fierce clashes earlier this month, al-Sharaa issued a decree on Friday formally recognising Kurdish as a “national language” and restoring citizenship to all Kurdish Syrians.

After fighting broke out in Aleppo on January 6, at least 22 people were killed and 173 were hurt.

The decree recognizes Kurdish Syrians’ identity as a component of Syria’s national fabric among other rights. It designates Kurdish as a national language alongside Arabic and allows schools to teach it.

Additionally, it repeals measures that date back to a 1962 census in Hasakah province, which granted citizenship to all affected residents, including those who had previously been declared stateless, after the census.

The decree declares that the Kurdish New Year’s holiday, Newroz, is paid for the country. It bans ethnic or linguistic discrimination, requires state institutions to adopt inclusive national messaging and sets penalties for incitement to ethnic strife.

The Kurdish government in Syria’s north and northeast responded to the decree, saying that while it was “a first step, it does not fulfill the aspirations and hopes of the Syrian people.”

Source: Aljazeera