Sutton’s predictions v Football Manager, the game

Is this the beginning of the rise of the machines?

Last week saw AI triumph outright for the first time in our Premier League predictions battle, although BBC Sport’s own expert human, Chris Sutton, points out he is still top of the overall league this season.

This time, as well as AI, Sutton faces a different hi-tech challenger. His guest opponent for this weekend’s fixtures is a computer game: Football Manager 26, the latest edition of the long-running management simulation series.

The FM26 game engine has played out this weekend’s matches and you can see its results, including goalscorers and red cards, below.

Miles Jacobson, the studio director of Sports Interactive, the company behind Football Manager, also joined in.

Do you agree with their scores? You can make your own predictions below.

The most popular scoreline selected for each game is used in the scoreboards and tables at the bottom of this page.

FM26 is released next week and, for the first time, allows people to manage across men’s and women’s teams as this edition includes a women’s football database featuring more than 36,000 players.

There are some tactical innovations too, including the ability to pick a different formation for your team depending on whether you are in or out of possession, but the rise of set-pieces in the Premier League this season is something that has already been part of the game for a while.

Jacobson told BBC Sport: “Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta is using some of the things Tony Pulis used to do with set-pieces, by having a set-piece coach to come up with ideas.

“But set-piece coaches are something that have been in FM for a while, and we have regular conversations with quite a few of them about things they are looking at.

“At the moment, long throws have become fashionable again, but will it last if people start doing defensive training to deal with them?

“With the prevalence of set-piece coaches, it is something that won’t necessarily negate itself over time, but clubs seeking advantages will always be looking at the past as well as the future for ways to innovate.

“That’s what we’re seeing this season – one of the reasons the Premier League table is all over the place at the moment is because people are looking for those marginal gains, which is something people try to do constantly inside FM too.”

Chris Sutton and Miles Jacobson were speaking to BBC Sport’s Chris Bevan.

Leeds have made a great start and I am pleased for Daniel Farke.

He took a lot of stick when he was at Norwich, when I kept hearing how he wasn’t a Premier League manager, but apart from their heavy defeat at leaders Arsenal, his side have been competitive in all of their games so far.

I am still going with a Brighton win here, though.

The Seagulls did not play well when they lost at Manchester United last weekend, then went out of the Carabao Cup at the hands of the Gunners on Wednesday, but they are unbeaten at home so far and I am expecting them to bounce back.

Sutton’s prediction: 2-0

FM26’s prediction: 1-1

Miles’ prediction: Leeds are doing better than expected but I’m still going for a Brighton win. 2-1

Arsenal know how to win games in so many different ways, and that puts them in an unbelievably strong position.

They have got flair players, but also have this amazing record of scoring from set-pieces and are strong defensively too.

We talk about machines when I go up against AI or a computer game at predictions but, let’s face it, Arsenal are a machine at the moment and no-one is stopping them.

There have been prettier Gunners teams than this, but they are just so effective and they don’t concede.

That’s why we might see a fair few results where it is ‘1-0 to the Arsenal’ – as their old song under George Graham in the 1990s used to go – but when they hit the straps there will still be games where they take teams apart.

Like the other promoted teams, Burnley have been really competitive and ran Liverpool and Manchester City close earlier in the season, despite losing on both occasions.

The Clarets’ late win at Wolves last week was a massive result for them and it really takes the pressure off them here.

You don’t get many free hits in the Premier League but this is one of them – Burnley are probably not going to get anything out of this game, but it doesn’t matter too much.

I am expecting Scott Parker’s side to be robust, keep it close, and stay in the game, which is a sign of where they are at… but Arsenal will still win – and you can probably guess what score I am going for.

Sutton’s prediction: 0-1

FM26’s prediction: 1-2

Miles’ prediction: Like Leeds, Burnley have done better than I thought they would, but there’s a reason Arsenal are unbeaten for such a long time. 1-2

These teams are next to each other in mid-table and it feels like they have both made positive starts to the season – they also both progressed in the Carabao Cup in midweek.

There were a lot of doubters when Keith Andrews succeeded Thomas Frank as Brentford boss – about Andrews himself and also how the team would do without Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa – but they have coped admirably.

The Bees are a very good counter-attacking team, so it is going to be fascinating to see how they get on against a Crystal Palace side who can be awesome on the break.

Sutton’s prediction: 1-0

FM26’s prediction: 0-0

Miles’ prediction: It’s an interesting transition for Brentford to go from Frank to Andrews in his first managerial role but he is doing well. They have kept quite a few of the old backroom staff and the system they have got in place at the club is more owner-driven than most clubs. 1-1

This is massive, for both teams.

Wolves thumped Fulham here last season, winning 4-1 in one of Gary O’Neil’s final games in charge before Vitor Pereira took over – and boy how Pereira could do with a similar result this time too.

It doesn’t get much worse for a manager than arguing with your own fans, which is what happened after Wolves lost to Burnley last time out, and Pereira’s side are bottom without a league win this season.

Fulham are on an awful run too, suffering four straight defeats. They haven’t always played too badly, but you can just sense the confidence sapping out of them.

Wolves’ problem is they are conceding too many – currently their average is more than two goals a game – and I don’t think you can stay in the Premier League doing that.

Pereira shored things up when he first came in – O’Neil’s Wolves conceded 40 from their 16 league games last season before Pereira took charge, then only let in 21 goals in their next 16 under him.

That’s what he has to do again, but it is clear they have not replaced the players they sold in the summer with the same quality, and there is no sign he will stop them leaking goals.

This is the sort of game where I actually fancy both teams to lose but I am going to back Fulham to edge it at home.

Sutton’s prediction: 2-1

FM26’s prediction: 0-1

Miles’ prediction: Wolves actually did all right in the Carabao Cup this week despite losing 4-3 to Chelsea – I know that wasn’t their full first-team but they have shown glimpses of what they can do in the past few weeks too. They would probably settle for a draw here, and so would Fulham. 2-2

The Nottingham Forest fans seem to be happy with Sean Dyche as manager and I think they will be patient with him – he has that affiliation with the club after starting his playing career there.

I think they might have to wait a bit longer for his first Premier League win, though.

Manchester United have picked up a bit, and Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha are proving me right after I said in the summer they would prove to be great signings.

They bring great variation when they play together – Mbeumo runs in behind, while Cunha comes deep looking for the ball to feet – and they both link the attack so well.

Defensively, there are still problems with United, however.

They have put together a three-game winning streak but they are not at the stage where I trust them to turn up every week, and I can see that run coming to an end here.

Sutton’s prediction: 1-1

FM26’s prediction: 1-2

Miles’ prediction: Sean Dyche will be trying to tighten things up at Forest a little bit, but United are on a roll. 0-1

This is always a bit of a grudge game because the two sets of fans don’t really like each other.

Chelsea need the result more, and they also have a much better record in this fixture, but their home defeat against Sunderland was another example of how flaky they are at the moment.

Tottenham have made the better start to the season, but it still feels like there is more to come from them when their injured players come back – which won’t happen this week.

I don’t really know which way to go with my prediction, so I am going to for a draw. I feel like I am turning into AI.

Sutton’s prediction: 1-1

FM26’s prediction: 1-1

Miles’ prediction: Tottenham have a lot of injury problems going into this one, while Chelsea have a few disciplinary problems. I’m hoping for a good game. 2-2

Liverpool boss Arne Slot made a lot of changes for Wednesday’s Carabao Cup defeat by Crystal Palace but it still felt like another damaging defeat, their sixth in the past seven games.

Slot’s side play Real Madrid and Manchester City after this, and they desperately need to end this slump in form before it gets any worse.

He rested players against Palace for this weekend, so he knows how important it is, but on current form, Aston Villa are favourites – they have won their past four league games and are on a roll.

Looking at both teams over the past few weeks you would expect Villa to get something here, but I need to use all my knowledge to get the better of AI.

So, with this game I am going to base my prediction on something that I thought about when I was a player – history.

Villa have taken only one point from their past seven visits to Anfield, and have won only one of their past 15 league games against Liverpool – although that was a 7-2 success in October 2020.

I had my bogey teams – most of them felt like that by the end to be honest – and I don’t think AI will understand that part of the game (Sutton does not know anyone else’s predictions when he makes his).

So, I am going with Liverpool to win, with Mohamed Salah getting a hat-trick.

Sutton’s prediction: 3-1

FM26’s prediction: 3-1

Miles’ prediction: In-form Villa versus out-of-form Liverpool… but they have to come back into form at some point. I just want a goal from Florian Wirtz because I’ve got him in my Fantasy Premier League team. 2-1

Newcastle marched on in the Carabao Cup in midweek and, after winning it last season and ending their long wait for silverware, I am starting to think about whether Eddie Howe can get his hands on another trophy.

West Ham, in contrast, are in deep trouble. Nuno Espirito Santo had a free week to work on things on the training ground but whoever he picks, it doesn’t seem to make much difference.

The Hammers concede a lot of goals from set-plays and I feel as if Newcastle are going to just be too strong for them in every area.

Sutton’s prediction: 0-2

FM26’s prediction: 2-1

Miles’ prediction: I feel like both teams should be doing better in the Premier League, but especially West Ham. 1-1

I mentioned history earlier, and Manchester City have won all eight of their home Premier League games against Bournemouth since 2015, scoring 31 goals and conceding five, but I still don’t think anyone will be overly confident they will beat the Cherries this time.

City are so reliant on their big number nine and their big goalkeeper this season, and that has to change. They need other players to step up.

It also feels like a mistake for Pep Guardiola to ignore the rise in the importance in set-pieces – City are the only Premier League team not to score from one this season.

He says he wants to focus on creating more chances in open play but it is proven that corners and throw-ins work, so my advice to Pep is that maybe it is time for him to get some big players in, and launch it!

I am tempted to go for Bournemouth to get at least a draw here because they will cut through City and get some chances, but instead I am going to be brave and back Erling Haaland and City, mainly because they are at home but also because they have Gianluigi Donnarumma in goal.

Bournemouth will score but City will win. I have got Cherries keeper Djordje Petrovic in my Fantasy team at the moment, so I need to move him out.

Sutton’s prediction: 3-1

FM26’s prediction: 3-2

Miles’ prediction: Bournemouth are absolutely flying and have all the confidence in the world. If you look at their bench, they have got some incredible players that aren’t getting to start at the moment. It’s a really interesting journey they are on at the moment, and we will have to wait to see if they can keep it up. Given their form, and City’s, I am going for an exciting draw. 2-2

I am torn here. I am always wrong about Sunderland and I know that means I have got a large fanbase on Wearside.

Because of that, I don’t want to jinx the Black Cats by saying they will win… but it is also hard to make a case for Everton getting anything.

My 606 co-host Roman Kemp said their Hill-Dickinson Stadium will be a fortress for them this season, but Tottenham didn’t have too much trouble there last Sunday with a 3-0 win.

David Moyes’ side really need to respond after that defeat but what he needs more than anything as he goes back to one of his former clubs is a finisher.

Beto misses so many chances, but I am backing him to put his boots on the right feet this week and score to grab his side a point.

Sutton’s prediction: 1-1

FM26’s prediction: 0-4

Miles’ prediction: Everton have lost their last two games and Sunderland are looking strong at home, but Oliver and Paul Collyer, who are the founders of Sports Interactive, are massive Everton fans and I would not live it down if I went for a Sunderland win. 1-1

Chris got four correct results, including one exact score, from the 10 games played in week nine, giving him 70 points.

That was enough for him to beat his guest, The Charlatans guitarist Mark Collins, who got three correct results with one exact score, for a tally of 60 points.

The BBC readers did better, with five correct results, including three exact scores, leaving them on 140 points, and they took the contest to the final game of the weekend – Tottenham’s 3-0 win at Everton.

AI was the only predictor to back Spurs, going for a 1-0 away victory, which meant it ended up with six correct results and three exact scores, and a winning total of 150 points.