Plotting England and Scotland’s routes through the World Cup

It took a while, but the World Cup draw is finally done. Fans of England and Scotland can start trying to work out their path to glory. And we can help.

It is deja vu for Scotland, drawn against Brazil and Morocco who they lost to the last time they made it to the World Cup in 1998. If the Scots are going to get out of the group, their biggest game is going to come very early.

England’s group is not one to set the pulses racing, but perhaps it will give coach Thomas Tuchel the chance to grow his squad into the tournament.

England’s toughest test, on paper at least, should be their first match against Croatia in Arlington, just outside Dallas, or Toronto.

Croatia beat England in the semi-finals of the 2018 World Cup but they have met three times since with England unbeaten, winning two and drawing one. Most recently Raheem Sterling scored the only goal of a group stage meeting at Euro 2020 at Wembley.

Tuchel will hope a positive result sets them up to top the group.

Ghana are far from the force they once were. They were ranked 14th in the world in 2008 but have now slipped to 72nd and failed to qualify for the Africa Cup of Nations which starts later this month.

England finish up against Panama, who they also played in 2018, thrashing them 6-1 in the group stage. Panama were runners-up in the Concacaf Gold Cup in 2023 but it would be huge shock if they picked something up here.

Tuchel will be aided by England being one of the last teams to start, nearly a week after Mexico face South Africa in the tournament opener. It gives the boss extra time to fit in the two friendlies he wants between the end of the domestic season and the Three Lions’ opening game.

Scotland start their World Cup campaign earlier in Group C and with a fixture that looks potentially important to their hopes of making the knockout rounds.

With Brazil and Morocco also in the group, Scotland and Haiti simply have to go all out to win when they meet in Foxborough, just outside Boston, or East Rutherford, next door to New York City, on 13 June.

If Steve Clarke’s men draw or lose to Haiti, they would then need to produce an almighty effort against two teams inside the top 11 of the Fifa world ranking.

Haiti have only made the World Cup once before in 1974, losing all three games and conceding 14 goals. They failed to get out of the group stage at the last three Concacaf Gold Cups, so reaching these finals is a huge achievement.

If Scotland can claim the ascendancy and score early, they will surely keep looking for further goals.

Eight of the 12 third-placed teams will go through to the round of 32. Three points will almost certainly be enough for some teams, but goal difference might be the difference.

If England get off to a great start against Croatia and go on to win their group, they would play a third-placed team in the first knockout stage, either in East Rutherford or Philadelphia.

However, the most complicated World Cup ever becomes even more confusing when trying to work out their opponents.

There are 495 different combinations of how groups could provide the eight advancing third-placed teams. We will not go through them all.

Only five groups could provide England’s opponents though: E, H, I, J or K. So, any one of 20 teams right now.

If we were to take a stab, that would probably involve Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde, Senegal, Norway, Austria, Algeria, Uzbekistan or the winner of the DR Congo play-off path.

It should present a winnable tie for England, though no-one wants to meet Erling Haaland’s Norway.

Finish second in the group? England would move into the other half of the bracket and fly to Toronto to take on the runners-up of Group K, and the odds are that would be Colombia.

If Scotland shock the world and win Group C, they would face the runners-up of Group F, Japan or Tunisia maybe, in Houston. If they were second they would jet off to Mexico to play the winners of the same group, the favourites being Portugal, in Guadalupe.

Finishing third and advancing would mean Scotland playing the winners of groups A, E or I – decided by which groups provide the third-placed teams.

Now the World Cup is really starting to get going.

England’s route might have been easing past one of the third-placed teams in the last 32, but it is about to get a whole lot more difficult.

England would have to go to Mexico City and feeding into that tie are the winners of Group A. And that would probably be Mexico.

Tuchel could be preparing to take his England side into a raucous atmosphere created by the supporters of the co-hosts.

Meeting one of the co-hosts on their own turf is far from ideal, though if England finished second in the group they would probably face Spain at this stage.

Scotland, remember, could be on the same route to the last-16 game at the iconic Azteca Stadium.

So, England have got past Mexico and they are now full of confidence. Who lies in wait in the quarter-finals when England fly back to the United States and into Miami?

There is only one other group winner feeding into this part of the bracket. That is from Group C and Brazil are the seeded nation.

Would it definitely be Brazil? The Selecao would come up against the runners-up of groups E, F and I in the same section.

Maybe Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Tunisia or, most likely, Norway could cause an upset and meet England in the last eight.

We are now entering the realms of fantasy, as it is impossible to predict who will still be active at this stage. But we will have a go as England leave Miami bound for Atlanta.

Argentina and Portugal appear to be the standout teams in the quadrant which will provide their opponents.

In the other half, Scotland head to Arlington with Spain clearly the top-ranked team. Belgium and United States are in the same quarter as Spain.

Then it’s off to East Rutherford for the final on July 19.