In a likely close election between a centre-left bloc led by the incumbent Labour Party and a centre-right bloc led by the populist Progress Party and Conservatives, Norway will vote on Monday to elect its next parliament.
In addition to the growing controversy surrounding Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, which is being investigated domestically and internationally for its investments in companies tied to Israel in the wake of the Gaza war, are issues that could determine the outcome of the vote.
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The nation’s largest sovereign wealth fund, which was established in the early 1990s to manage the surplus revenue from North Sea oil sales, had a key tenet until recently: maintaining the status of the $2 trillion investment vehicle as “non-political.”
The key question is now whether the controversy will end at the ballot box and whether US threats of reprisal will be taken.
How are Norwegian general elections conducted?
Norway’s proportional representation system mandates 169 politicians to serve four years in the Storting, which is administered by the Storting. There are 19 regional districts with seats distributed proportionally among the parties, making up 150 out of these.
19 additional seats are given to parties whose district results don’t fully reflect their country’s vote in terms of local representation. A party must elicit at least 4% of the vote in order to be eligible for these seats, though.
Polls predict that nine parties will take the upcoming September 8 election. Labour, the Socialists, the Greens, the Center, and the Liberals are on the left, while Progress, the Christian Democrats, the Conservatives, and the Liberals are on the right.
Jonas Gahr Stoere of Labour is expected to remain in office if the center-left wins. After eight years of Conservative-led governments, Stoere wants to continue in power.
A center-right victory would also allow either Conservative Party head Erna Solberg or Progress Party leader Sylvi Listhaug to lead the next government. Solberg was the party’s leader from 2013 to 2021.
While Labour supports generally stable taxes, some of its supporters want the wealthy to pay for tax cuts for low-income families and expand public services. Both Progress and the Conservatives support substantial tax cuts.
When will the results be made public and when does voting begin?
Early voting began on July 1 and continued until September 5, according to the Norwegian Directorate of Elections.
Although September 8 is the election day, some municipalities have begun allowing voters to cast ballots on September 7.
The first exit polls are anticipated for September 8 at 19:00 GMT, which is when voting ends. Later in the evening, the results may be known, but they might not until the following day.
What are the findings of opinion polls?
No single party’s ability to achieve a majority in the cabinet is unknown, and the precise combination of parties’ membership will depend on post-election negotiations.
According to polls conducted by pollofpolls, the centre-left parties Labour, the Socialist Left, the Communists, the Center Party, and the Greens are currently expected to win 87 seats. earlier this week.
The most likely outcome under which Labour holds the majority is if the polls are correct and these parties join hands after the election.
Why have issues arisen between Gaza and Israel?
The government has more freedom to spend than other European nations’ $2 trillion wealth fund, which is built on vast oil reserves.
Indeed, the fund is the world’s largest institutional investor by volume. It invests primarily in stock markets, owns roughly 1% of all listed shares, and is primarily involved in about 9, 000 companies. Additionally, it makes investments in renewable energy infrastructure and real estate.
At the start of the campaign, however, a discussion about the fund’s investments in Israel  took center stage.
The Socialist Left said it would only support a future Labour government if it ceded all ownership of “Israel’s illegal war in Gaza” to the opposition. If the election results are insufficient, it might be difficult to reject the demand.
The sovereign fund had 61 companies in Israel as of June 30th, 2025, according to the fund, with a total investment of $2.2 billion. They made up 0.1% of the company’s total global investments.
Following media reports that the fund held a stake in a jet engine maintenance company that maintains Israeli fighter jets, the fund has since ceded control of at least 11 businesses. Prior to that, the fund had only taken stock in two Israeli businesses.
Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg, who was also the former NATO chief, stated on August 18 that more divestments are anticipated in the future. Norway profiting from Israel’s conflict in Gaza, according to divesting advocates, is causing international law to be violated.
What are the views of the political parties regarding investments in Israel?
The fund adheres to ethical standards established by Conservative Finance Minister Per-Kristian Foss in 2004. The fund is prohibited from investing in companies engaged in conflict or human rights violations, among other things, by the rules.
Erna Solberg, the leader of the conservative party, has stated that maintaining the fund’s political impartiality was a top priority for the fund’s investments for a long time. She said on August 6 that it was important for us to adhere to the tenet that all investments are made without having political influence.
Between 2023 and 2024, Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten discovered that Norway’s sovereign wealth fund had increased its investments in Israeli manufacturer Bet Shemesh Engines by more than fourfold, reaching $ 15 million.
The findings were “disturbing,” according to Labour’s Stoere’s response to NRK , Norway’s state broadcaster. He remarked, “Norwegian funds should not be invested in businesses that contribute to the abominable war in Gaza and international law violations.”
A spokesman for the US State Department also stated on Wednesday that the fund had “very troubled” with Caterpillar’s recent divestment and that it was talking with the Norwegian government directly about the situation.
On ethical grounds, Norway’s wealth fund divested from Caterpillar on August 25 on the grounds that Israeli authorities in Gaza and the Israeli-occupied West Bank used products from the company, particularly bulldozers.
Trump’s ally, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, has suggested that the US should impose tariffs and visa suspensions on Norway in response. He criticized the Norwegian government’s social media review of the Israeli-linked investment decision, calling it “beyond offensive” and “blatant BS.”
What other factors are influencing the outcome?
According to a survey conducted by Response Analyse for the Aftenposten daily on August 7 and 13, inequality occupies the top spot in the poll’s top priority list, surpassing that of defense and national security, which dropped to sixth place in a similar poll in April.
The election campaign’s focus has been on the cost of living, with food price inflation rising by nearly 6% over the last year. According to the survey, voters have high priorities for the economy, jobs, and taxes.
Polls also point out that, as a result of Trump’s election, voters are becoming more skeptical of geopolitics.
Source: Aljazeera
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