NFL play-offs – how final four can make it to Super Bowl

After yet more enthralling finishes in the Divisional Round, four teams remain with just one final hurdle to overcome to reach Super Bowl 60.

The Seattle Seahawks demolished the San Francisco 49ers to host the NFC Championship game – where they will face a Los Angeles Rams side that survived yet another Caleb Williams comeback to escape from Chicago after an overtime epic.

And on the AFC side, the Denver Broncos are hosts after they also emerged from an overtime thriller to end Josh Allen’s hopes of a first Super Bowl – and cost Buffalo Bills coach Sean McDermott his job.

Every AFC Championship game since the 2011 season has featured either the Kansas City Chiefs of New England Patriots, but even during the Tom Brady days the Pats never had any joy at Mile High.

Is this Patriots dynasty reborn?

There’s a lot of similarities between life under Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye and the ultimate dynasty of Brady and Bill Belichick – this play-off run with two brutal defensive clashes is one of them.

It’s been a huge turnaround in New England, winning 16 games this season after just eight wins combined in the previous two campaigns.

They were the biggest spenders in free agency but also had the second-most rookie starts this season, so an overhaul that left just 16 players left from the 2023 roster obviously has the right balance.

It’s true the Pats had an easy regular season schedule, but they’ll have to win it the hard way as – after facing the Chargers, Texans and now Broncos – Maye will become the first quarterback to beat three top-five defences in one post-season if victorious.

If he does, there will be yet more evidence the Pats are back.

Can Broncos win Super Bowl with back-up QB?

Head coach Sean Payton has taken a little longer to turn things around, understandably given Denver’s salary cap issues. The largest expense on their salary cap this season is the $32m of dead money still left on Russell Wilson’s ill-fated contract.

Just a couple of hours after beating the Bills in a thriller, Denver were deflated when news that quarterback Bo Nix had broken his ankle came through.

Nix’s overall stat lines may not jump out at you, but leading his team to a 12-2 record in one-score games tells you everything.

The big question now is whether Payton can devise a way to win with back-up Jarrett Stidham, who will play for a place in the Super Bowl 749 days since he last threw a pass in the NFL.

The 29-year-old was, ironically enough, drafted by New England and seen as Brady’s successor at one point, but although he has more appearances for the Pats (8) than Broncos (7) his career next took off in Foxborough.

He has just four career starts, with one win, and hasn’t thrown a single pass in the past two seasons – playing just one snap this season which was a kneeldown.

The match-up: Defence will win this championship

Denver will hope some omens are on their side. This is their third AFC Championship in 20 years – all three against the Patriots and they won the previous two.

A decade ago Peyton Manning beat Brady here to send Denver to Super Bowl 50 – which was also held at Levi’s Stadium. Will lightning strike twice?

And there could be more good news with top running back JK Dobbins set to return from injury. He still leads the team in carries (153) and yards (772) despite not playing since the start of November.

If they can run the ball to help Stidham out that could be huge, as we know the NFL’s best sack unit will get after Maye and make life uncomfortable all night.

Maye had four fumbles and was sacked five times by Houston – he needs to be better than that to stand a chance here.

The NFC West rivals played out two brilliant games during the regular season, and advanced metrics have this billed as the highest-quality play-off game on record.

Are the Rams lucky or good?

A touchdown 38 seconds from the end gave the Rams victory in Carolina, then a Williams interception in overtime gave them the chance to win in Chicago, but can the offence pass this ultimate test?

Quarterbacks with under 50% completion of 40-plus passes and zero touchdowns had gone 0-99-1 in any NFL game before Matthew Stafford beat the Bears.

He needs more than that if the Rams are to buck a few trends.

The passing yards leader is 0-6 against the league’s top defence in points allowed in play-off meetings, while the Seahawks took care of the league’s top scoring offence in their Super Bowl beatdown over Denver in 2014.

The home side is also 15-5 in Conference Championship games between divisional rivals, but if one side has the combination of experience and grit it’s Sean McVay’s outfit.

Will Seahawks need Darnold?

Head coach Mike Macdonald has flown completely under the radar, yet his team are Super Bowl favourites after a stunning play-off victory over San Francisco.

No other team has ever scored over 40 points, rushed for 150 yards, allowed no touchdowns or turnovers and scored on special teams, in any NFL game, ever.

A defence led by British coach Aden Durde gave up the fewest points in the league and overall they were the most competitive side in the NFL.

The Seahawks only lost three games all season, by a combined nine points, and won 15 games by 235. Talk about a complete performance.

Sam Darnold is the only quarterback to win 14 games in successive seasons with two different teams, yet he still has to convince many of his play-off credentials after a disaster last season.

In truth he never had to do much against San Francisco and although he’s got a win over the Rams he’s had his problems – throwing four interceptions in the loss in Los Angeles was a particular low.

Match up: Best play-off game on record?

According to an advanced metric DVOA, which measures teams performances against the league average, this is the highest quality play-off game on record given how the two teams stack up against the rest of the NFL.

And the two were so evenly matched in their NFC West games.

They went 1-1 with the Rams winning by two and the Seahawks by one, so it was 58-57 in total points scored and a crazy 830-829 in total yards in favour of LA.

Seattle won the second game after an impressive comeback and overtime, and you sense something similar could be on the cards again.

The Rams will hope they have the right formula against this Seattle defence, as Stafford has thrown five touchdowns with no interceptions or sacks in two games, while Darnold has six picks and four sacks against the Rams defence.

Conference seed in brackets, all kick-off times GMT

Sunday, 25 January