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A nine-point political roadmap was signed by Sudanese political parties, armed groups, civil society organizations, and prominent political figures in Nairobi on December 16 and presented as a civilian-led initiative aimed at ending Sudan’s war and restoring a democratic transition.

It attempts to use civilians as a “third pole” in Sudan’s conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which are both framed as antiwar, pro-peace, and pro-peace.

Even though the declaration doesn’t provide any specific steps toward military reform, its authors claim that it represents an attempt to reclaim political power from civilians after months of being marginalized by armed actors and foreign mediators.

The roadmap sparked new political and civic circles in Sudan about legitimacy, representation, and the persistent dominance of elite-driven civilian politics.

The roadmap

The Quad’s announcement in September, which included Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the United States, led to the release of the Nairobi declaration.

A three-month truce, according to the Quad statement, should result in a permanent ceasefire, humanitarian assistance for civilians, and the establishment of a political transition process.

The Nairobi declaration also emphasized the importance of reforming Sudan’s security forces under civilian oversight and excluding remnants of the regime of former president Omar al-Bashir.

The Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM-AW), led by Abdelwahid al-Nur, as well as the National Umma Party, the Sudanese Congress Party, civil society organizations, and the Sudanese Congress Party (SUN).

Abdalla Hamdok, the former prime minister, signed the declaration, which coordinated with the SAF and the RSF, from al-Bashir’s overthrow in 2019 until the military coup in October 2021.

Al-Nur, the long-time leader of the SLM-AW armed group that controls Jebel Marra in Darfur and who has historically rejected what he sees as “elite-driven” political settlements, also endorsed it.

Having a bad day

Hamid Khalafallah, a researcher from Sudan, claimed that the declaration does not adequately reflect the country’s wider civic movement despite its intention to present a civilian leadership.

He claimed that the Nairobi coalition is an example of earlier civilian organizations that failed to reach Sudanese citizens, particularly those who were most impacted by the conflict.

He claimed that it is a reproduction of former groups that have struggled to represent the Sudanese people. It still represents a highly regarded elite group that practices politics the same way it has always done.

No committees formally supported or signed the declaration, despite reference to neighbourhood groups that emerged from Sudan’s protest movement and helped toppled al-Bashir in 2019.

Drafts were reportedly shared with some grassroots organizations, but the process proceeded without a single vote, bolstering concerns that local people remain politically instrumental rather than empowered.

Khalafallah argued that his inclusion was intended to counterbalance rival military-aligned forces rather than change civilian politics, despite al-Nur’s participation being hailed by some as a breakthrough.

Prior to the Nairobi Declaration, Sudan’s three main civilian coalitions were either affiliated with or accused of acting in such a way.

The Democratic Bloc is a group of political parties and armed organizations affiliated with the SAF, while Tasis is a coalition of political parties and armed movements that was established in February of this year.

Finally, political parties and civil society organizations are joined by Hamdok’s Sumoud, which the SAF claims supports the RSF.

Europe’s one-track civilian strategy

Officials in Europe have taken a break from the initiative in Nairobi.

Under the condition of anonymity, a senior European Union diplomat told Al Jazeera that Brussels does not support the Nairobi roadmap as the foundation for a unified civil process.

The source stated that the African Union [AU] should have access to just one civil process. Like this Nairobi incident, “everything else is a distraction.”

The priority, according to the EU official, is not to multiply civilian platforms, but to consolidate them under a trustworthy umbrella that is widely accepted by Sudanese society.

The source stated that “our goal is to build a credible third pole in opposition to SAF and RSF.” “A welcoming one that most Sudanese citizens support.”

After the SAF and the RSF approve the Quad’s proposals for a humanitarian truce and ceasefire, including reforms putting security forces under civilian-led control, the EU plans to form a broad coalition that will take the lead.

The EU’s language asserts that abandoning Sudan’s divided civilian landscape would automatically legitimize military rule, while also reflecting growing international actors’ growing frustration with its fragmented civil landscape.

We are not naive that people will rule tomorrow, the source said. However, we must uphold our values.

The EU official rejected narratives that depicted either side as a governing body in her assessment of Sudan’s conflicting parties.

SAF is a bit better, but not much, according to the source, “than RSF does in Darfur.”

Look at the oil deal, the official continued. People are not important, but money is.

Following SAF’s pullout and the RSF’s capture of the site, they referred to the most recent agreement between the SAF and the RSF, which was reached under South Sudanese mediation. Both organizations would then withdraw from the Heglig oil facility.

Warring parties acting as spoilers

The Nairobi declaration effectively presents to the international community a roadmap that adheres to pre-existing goals in order to win support from the Quad, according to US-Africa policy expert Cameron Hudson, who told Al Jazeera.

According to Hudson, “I think the Nairobi declaration reverses what the Quad has said,” implying that the initiative is intended more to sway international support than to create genuine domestic consensus.

Hudson argued that this method “prematurely” links ceasefire efforts with army reforms or other political changes, and that it should continue to go along separate lines until the violence subsides. He also argued that this method mishandles the political transition in Sudan.

He argued that if the Quad wanted an unconditional ceasefire, it should pursue it rather than allowing for political guarantees during a transition.

It is premature to discuss reforming the army or engaging in other political reforms for this reason. For the time being, these should be kept separate.

The tension is intense. Both the SAF and the RSF should not have a political future, according to the Quad and the European Union, and they must be completely excluded from the Bashir regime.

After holding separate meetings with Ukrainian, European, and Russian negotiators in the state of Florida, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff has praised discussions on ending Moscow’s conflict in Ukraine as “productive and constructive.”

The US, Russia, and Ukraine held their latest meetings on a 20-point plan that US President Donald Trump has touted to end the nearly four-year-old conflict on Sunday in Miami.

No clear indications of imminent resolutions to pressing issues, including the one involving the territory Russia has seized during the conflict, have been received despite US optimism.

On Sunday, Witkoff met with officials from Europe and the Ukraine during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev. The Ukrainian delegation, led by senior official Rustem Umerov, was then led by him in separate discussions.

Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, also attended the gatherings.

According to Witkoff and Umerov, Sunday’s discussions focused on a “shared strategic approach between Ukraine, the United States, and Europe,” according to a joint statement released on the occasion.

Discussions of timelines and the timing of the next steps were given particular attention, they said.

The 20-point plan, a “multilateral security guarantee framework,” a “US Security guarantee framework for Ukraine,” and an “economic &amp, prosperity plan” were the focus of discussions between Ukrainian and US officials on Sunday, according to Witkoff and Umerov.

Witkoff claimed that his discussions with Dmitriev were also “productive and constructive” in a separate X post that used some of the same language.

In the post, Witkoff stated that “Russia is unwaveringly committed to bringing peace to Ukraine.” Russia values the United States’ efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine and restore world peace.

Yury Ushakov, Putin’s top aide to foreign policy, claimed earlier on Sunday that the changes the US and its allies in Europe demanded to the US’s proposed framework had no effect on peace.

Dmitriev is scheduled to return to Moscow on Monday, according to Ushakov, and Putin will be informed of the outcome of his discussions.

He said, “We will formulate the position with which we will proceed, including in our contacts with the Americans.”

Russia, which launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, claims that its participation in the talks will only hinder them.

After the latter suggested that Europe should contact the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Kremlin said on Sunday that Putin was ready to talk to Emmanuel Macron.

Putin and Macron have “expressed their willingness to dialogue,” Peskov told RIA Novosti, a Russian state news agency. Therefore, “anything that is mutual political will can only be positively evaluated”

The Russian statement was welcomed by Macron’s office.

The Kremlin’s public support of this strategy is welcome, “. In the coming days, it said, “We will decide which course of action is best.”

Trump’s plan, which includes 28 points, was first released last month, drawing immediate criticism from European leaders who claimed it echoed the demands of the Kremlin.

Zelenskyy has since claimed that Ukraine and its allies in Europe have developed a 20-point plan based on the White House’s initial proposal.

One of the main disagreements between Russia and Ukraine is how much of the land that Russia has seized in Ukraine since launching its full-scale invasion in the wake of years of fighting in the east.

Zelenskyy described the discussions as “constructive” and claimed they were moving “quite quickly.” He did, however, warn that “a lot depends on whether Russia feels the need to end the war for real.”

London, United Kingdom – A family member and a friend claim that two Palestine Action-affiliated remand prisoners on hunger strike have been taken to the hospital, raising concerns that the young Britons who refuse to eat in protest could die at any time.

Kamran Ahmed, age 28, was taken to the hospital on Saturday, according to his sister, Shahmina Alam, according to Al Jazeera.

Amu Gib, 30, from HMP Bronzefield in Surrey, has been taken to the hospital on Friday, according to the Prisoners for Palestine organization and friend Nida Jafri, who regularly communicates with them. They are used by Gib as.

Six detainees are protesting across five prisons over alleged involvement in break-ins at an Oxfordshire Royal Air Force base and a British subsidiary of the Israeli defense firm Elbit Systems.

They deny the charges brought against them, including violent disorder and burglary.

Ahmed’s sister, Alam, commented, “Adam is on day 42 of his hunger strike, and there is a significant risk of organ damage.” He has lost up to half a kilogram in the last few days, according to the company. 1lbs] a day. ”

Ahmad’s last weight was 132 pounds, or 60 kg.

Ahmed, who is 180 cm (5′ 11″), weighed 64 kg (141 kg) after entering prison with a healthy 74 kg (164 kg) when Al Jazeera first interviewed him on December 12. Alam announced his weight on Thursday at a press conference in London. 5kg (136lbs).

Alam claimed that Ahmad’s speech was altered during a Friday phone call with the family. He is said to have chest pains and high ketone levels.

I’m not sure how he’s going to recover from this situation, Alam said.

Ahmed has been in the hospital three times since starting the hunger strike.

‘Critical stage.

The hunger strikers demand immediate bail, the right to a fair trial, and the de-proscription of Palestine Action, which denies complicity in Israel’s war crimes in Gaza. Palestine Action was declared a terrorist organization by the UK government in July, a designation that applies to organizations like ISIL (ISIS).

The protesters have accused the authorities of withholding mail, calls, and books in response to their alleged censorship in prison. Additionally, they demand the closure of all Elbit websites.

The six’s trial dates are expected to be over a year apart from the UK’s six-month pre-trial detention cap, which is excessive.

According to her attorneys, Qesser Zuhrah, a 20-year-old who has refused to eat for 50 days, is also recovering in a hospital after losing 13% of her body weight. Heba Muraisi, Teuta Hoxha, and Lewie Chiaramello, who is diabetic and refuses food on occasion, are the other protesters.

Pentonville and HMP Bronzefield both made no immediate comments.

‘I’m scared’

On Thursday, Gif called their friend Jafri from prison to say they needed a wheelchair to make an appointment at a doctor to check their vital signs.

The first time, according to Jafri, was when the prison staff “refused” to provide a wheelchair, and later “refused to push” it after offering one. On day 47 of their hunger strike, they lay there without having their vitals checked, Jafri said.

The prisoners are unable to call their loved ones from jail as they can when they are in a hospital.

Jafri told Al Jazeera, “I’m afraid they’re there by themselves, without phones or calls.” ”

Their lawyers claim that Gib’s weight loss, which has dropped more than 10 kg (22 lbs.), is below the recommended range for most health indicators, which is “highly concerning” for their immune system.

The attorneys claimed that prison officials have consistently failed to provide thiamine to [Gib], and that Amu is experiencing cognitive decline as a result.

Additionally, Jafri said, “Gib’s eyes are sore with the bright [prison] lights.

In the hope that Secretary of State for Justice David Lammy’s intervention will save lives, the attorneys have requested a meeting with him. Lammy has been urged to take their call by thousands of regular Britons, hundreds of doctors, and dozens of MPs. However, he has so far refrained, making critics accuse the UK government of purposefully disregarding the situation.

The protest’s and its dangers have also been downplayed by the UK media.

Since 1981, Irish Republican prisoners led by Bobby Sands led the largest coordinated hunger strike in UK prisons.

The Palestine Action hunger strikes have been largely met with media silence, according to Bart Cammaerts, a professor of politics and communication at the London School of Economics, in contrast to the robust media coverage of the Irish hunger strikes in the 1980s.