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Tehran, Iran – Huge air strikes by the United States and Israel continue to hit Tehran and other cities as the Iranian establishment ponders its future while launching projectiles across the region.

The capital was rocked numerous times on Sunday after a series of attacks hit multiple neighbourhoods, with the Israeli army saying military centres were among the targets. Iranian authorities have largely refrained from discussing missile impacts, and internet connectivity remained almost entirely blocked for a second day.

After Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and top commanders were killed in Tehran at the start of the war on Saturday, the remaining top authorities of the Islamic Republic are emphasising that the theocratic establishment has a clear path forward based on its own internal mechanisms.

By laws put into motion after the country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, a clerical body called the Assembly of Experts is tasked with selecting the next supreme leader.

Masoud Pezeshkian, the Iranian president, said that a new leadership council “has begun its work” after the death of Khamenei. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera the process should be complete within days.

Until that can happen, a three-member council will govern.

As members of the council, judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei and President Pezeshkian have vowed continuity. In a first video address on Sunday, Pezeshkian called on pro-establishment supporters to congregate at mosques and major city streets despite the war.

The third member was announced on Sunday to be Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, a clerical member of the powerful constitutional watchdog known as the Guardian Council. The Expediency Council, an arbitration body, was tasked with selecting the jurisprudence expert for the new council.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which was founded after the 1979 revolution and has since grown into a sizeable military and economic force, is also expected to play a key role.

Mohammad Pakpour, who was appointed as the commander-in-chief of the IRGC less than a year ago after his predecessor was assassinated during the 12-day war with Israel, was killed on Saturday. Abdolrahim Mousavi, chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, Defence Council chief Ali Shamkhani, and police intelligence chief Gholam-Reza Rezaeian were also among those killed.

The IRGC vowed revenge, and launched what it called “the heaviest offensive operations in the history of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic against occupied lands [a reference to Israel] and the bases of American terrorists”.

Army chief Amir Hatami also pledged to continue defending the country, as the army claimed its fighter jets completed bombing runs of US bases across the region without offering footage.

Police chief Ahmad-Reza Radan said his forces are prepared to fight for “public safety” as the US and Israel have openly called on the Iranian people to protest in the streets in the foreseeable future with the goal of overthrowing the establishment.

Security chief Ali Larijani, another prominent figure in the power structure of the Islamic Republic, backed the constitutional process for deciding future leadership while making an outreach to countries battling incoming Iranian missiles and drones.

In a post on X in Arabic, he said Tehran does not wish to attack its neighbours, but considers US bases in those countries to be “American territory”. He also released a separate all-caps post in English, saying, “TODAY WE WILL HIT THEM WITH A FORCE THAT THEY HAVE NEVER EXPERIENCED BEFORE”.

Ali Akbar Ahmadian, a top IRGC commander and former security chief who acted as Khamenei’s appointed representative to the Supreme Defence Council, vowed that the body will continue its work despite the killing of its top members, including Shamkhani. The council was formed after the war with Israel last June to bolster defence strategies after Iran suffered heavy damages from Israeli and US bombing of its nuclear and military sites.

Hassan Khomeini, the grandchild of founding Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, also praised the 86-year-old Khamenei after he was killed, calling him a “hero of the Iranian people and Muslims around the world”.

Khomeini, a relatively moderate cleric, has been among people reported by Western media to have a chance of becoming the next supreme leader. Khomeini has not addressed the issue, but on Sunday emphasised that defending the “holy establishment of the Islamic Republic” was of paramount importance.

Former President Hassan Rouhani, who last week rejected being part of a power grab at the height of January’s nationwide protests, said he supports the temporary council, armed forces and the government in an effort to preserve the establishment.

Former President Mohammad Khatami condemned the killing of Khamenei as an effort to harm Iran’s “independence and unity”. He also echoed his previous calls for reforms to disappoint “enemies” of the theocratic establishment.

Some local media reports said Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the controversial populist figure who was Iran’s president from 2005 to 2013, was killed along with several bodyguards after being targeted by Israel. The state-linked Iranian Labour News Agency denied that he was dead, citing an informed source on Sunday, but did not elaborate.

Multiple videos from the scene of the strikes on 72 Square in the Narmak neighbourhood of eastern Tehran on Saturday appeared to show the area of Ahmadinejad’s residence targeted. A school located in the same area was damaged, and at least two children were killed, according to local authorities, who separately said more than 150 people, many of them children, were killed in another school strike in the city of Minab in southern Iran.

As US and Israeli officials promise to keep attacking Iran for days or weeks using hundreds of warplanes to target state authorities, it remains to be seen where the balance of power lies inside Iran.

For now, Iranian authorities are united in mourning Khamenei, who stood unchallenged at the helm for 36 years.

For years, interventionists in the West made the argument that the long-term costs of the political order in Iran, such as repression, economic decay, and social stagnation, outweighed the risks of a violent external regime change. Last month, the “moral barrier” to intervention was significantly lowered by the bloody crackdown on protests in January and the extensive positive coverage of the Iranian opposition in Western media.

The US-Israeli intervention came soon after, with both United States President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urging Iranians to “rise up”. The assassinations of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other high-level Iranian officials were celebrated as a major achievement.

However, the assumption that the removal of a central figurehead will lead to a “short and decisive rupture” followed by a smooth transition is far from certain. In fact, Iran after Ayatollah Khamenei may not be at all what the proponents of intervention desire to see.

Regime change gone wrong

The wider Middle East has three recent examples of why outside intervention is unlikely to result in a smooth transition and stability. Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya demonstrate that external military operations are followed not by rapid stabilisation, but by chaos. That much is apparent from a quick look at the scores of these countries on the Worldwide Governance Indicators of the World Bank.

Afghanistan experienced regime change in 2001 following the US invasion; that triggered two decades of fighting and attacks on civilians. In 2021, the country saw the return of the ousted regime, but stability remains elusive.

Iraq has seen various insurgencies and civil war following the US invasion in 2003; despite democratisation efforts, the country is still unable to return to pre-2003 stability.

Libya’s collapse following a NATO-led intervention in 2011 saw the country drop from positive stability scores in the Worldwide Governance Indicators to some of the lowest in the world, with no recovery in sight. The country remains split between two centres of governance – in Tripoli and Benghazi.

None of these countries have regained their pre-intervention stability levels. Their paths are marked by long-lasting fragility and volatility, rather than the “brief adjustment” promised by proponents of intervention.

Regime change that may not come

The regime in Iran is different in many ways from the ones that collapsed in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. The assassination of leader Ayatollah Khamenei may have a profound impact that does not result in state collapse.

Within the symbolic universe of Shia Islam, to which the majority of Iranians belong, Khamenei’s death can be interpreted as the fulfillment of a martyrological script. Death at the hands of perceived enemies of Islam can be framed as redemptive passage rather than defeat; it is not a bitter collapse, as is the case with other Middle Eastern rulers who were ousted or killed. It is instead an idealised closure: the sacralisation of political life through sacrificial death.

This martyrological framing has the potential to rally a significant portion of the population, including those who were previously critical of the leadership, around a narrative of national defence. By transforming a fallen leader into a martyr of “foreign aggression”, the state can trigger a surge of nationalist cohesion and deep-seated resentment towards external intervention, potentially unifying the security forces and traditionalist sectors of society in a way that proponents of regime change did not anticipate.

This may be more challenging today due to the outcome of recent protests compared to the previous confrontation with Israel in June 2025. However, it remains a strong possibility.

It is also important to note that the experiences of Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan indicate that the absence of intact bureaucratic, security, and fiscal institutions during external intervention can lead to prolonged instability.

For Iran, the big question now is whether administrative cohesion and territorial integrity can be preserved. Achieving this depends primarily on the survival of the “deep state”, the resilient civil bureaucracy and technocratic class that manages the country’s fiscal and essential services.

If the central bank, ministries, and regional governorates continue to function despite the leadership vacuum, the state may avoid the total “atomisation” seen in Libya. Furthermore, territorial integrity rests on the continued unity between the regular army (Artesh) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

One major challenge would be finding a “national unifier” in the current climate. The bloody repression of the January protests has deeply fractured the relationship between the people and the political elite, making it difficult for any establishment figure to claim broad legitimacy. While a “technocratic-military council” led by figures with managerial backgrounds, such as Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, former President Hassan Rouhani or Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran Ali Larijani, might attempt to step in to provide a “security-first” stabilisation, they lack the spiritual authority of the late supreme leader.

In the absence of a figure who can bridge the chasm between the embittered street and the survival-driven security apparatus, any new leadership will likely struggle to project authority.

Instability after Khamenei

If institutional continuity fails or the army and the IRGC begin to compete, the risk of fragmentation and persistent conflict would increase. In this scenario, the violent rupture some call for today may mark the beginning of a structurally entrenched cycle of insecurity whose costs will be borne by Iranian society at large.

There are two factors that may shape such an outcome.

First is hollowing out of the middle class. Decades of Western sanctions have decimated the very social group that traditionally serves as a stabiliser during political transitions. Without a robust middle class, the political vacuum left behind by the ongoing war on Iran is more likely to be filled by armed factions or radicalised remnants of the current security apparatus.

These elements of the “ancien regime”, specifically hardline cadres within the IRGC and the Basij who perceive any new order as an existential threat to their lives and assets, are unlikely to disappear or “merge peacefully”, as the Trump administration appears to hope. Instead, they are more likely to transition from state actors to decentralised insurgent groups, using their deep knowledge of the country’s infrastructure to sabotage any attempt at a stable transition.

Second is social fragmentation. Iran possesses a level of ethnic and linguistic diversity greater than that of the average Middle Eastern country. In the absence of a central authority, and with security leadership currently targeted, the risk of state fragmentation and the rise of various militias should not be underestimated.

In worst-case scenario, internal turmoil is likely to follow the fault lines of existing grievances. In the borderlands, long-simmering insurgencies among the Baluch, Kurd and Arab populations could escalate into full-scale separatist conflicts as central control diminishes.

In major metropolitan centres, the collapse of a unified security chain may lead to localised upheaval, where rogue militias, acting without orders, compete for control over neighbourhood resources. Simultaneously, a violent “war of the elites” is inevitable, as the remaining military and political heavyweights would struggle to fill the vacuum of the leadership, potentially turning the state’s own institutions into battlefields of succession.

In recent weeks, the saying “a bitter ending is better than endless bitterness” has been invoked by some to justify foreign military intervention in Iran. Such perceptions seem to rest on the belief that a quick resolution can be achieved through military means.

However, as the data from Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan confirm, war outcomes are not linear; they are catalysts for unpredictable and protracted deterioration. While the death of Ayatollah Khamenei marks a symbolic end to an era, history suggests that the “expected value” of such a violent rupture is often a path of chronic instability and institutional erosion rather than institutional renewal.

For the people of Iran, the “bitter ending” of a regime may not be the final act of their suffering, but the opening chapter of a new, structurally entrenched era of “endless bitterness” that could haunt the region for decades to come.

Arsenal have won their set-piece battle with 10-man Chelsea as Jurrien Timber sealed the Premier League leaders’ crucial 2-1 victory over their London rivals.

Mikel Arteta’s side struck twice from corners and also conceded from the same route in a match on Sunday that underlined the increasing importance of set pieces in the Premier League.

William Saliba’s first goal since December 2024 put Arsenal ahead in the first half at the Emirates Stadium.

Piero Hincapie’s own goal drew Chelsea level from one of Reece James’s deadly corners just before the break.

But Timber won a priceless three points for Arsenal with his second-half header before Chelsea winger Pedro Neto was sent off for a second booking.

The Gunners’ second successive league win reestablished their five-point lead over second-placed Manchester City, who have a game in hand and had closed the gap with a 1-0 victory at Leeds on Saturday.

After enduring scathing criticism of their mentality during a recent wobble that breathed new life into the title race, Arsenal have got back on track just in time as they followed last weekend’s 4-1 rout of Tottenham with a far more tense triumph.

Arsenal travel to Brighton on Wednesday with nine games left in their bid to win a first English title since 2004.

The Gunners, through to the League Cup final, the Champions League last 16 and the FA Cup fifth round, have just one match left in England’s top-flight football league against sides currently in the top six – a potentially decisive trip to Manchester City on April 18.

Chelsea’s third consecutive game without a win was a blow to their bid to qualify for next season’s Champions League.

They dropped to sixth place after losing to Arsenal for the third time in Liam Rosenior’s brief reign.

Robert Sanchez nearly gifted Arsenal an early goal when the Chelsea goalkeeper stumbled under pressure from Viktor Gyokeres, but he managed a last-ditch clearance to avert the danger.

When Sanchez gave the ball away with another nervous clearance, Rosenior held his head in frustration.

Arsenal coach Mikel Arteta preyed on Chelsea’s weakness at the back to take the lead with one of set-piece coach Nicolas Jover’s trademark routines in the 21st minute.

Gabriel Magalhaes towered above Reece James and Joao Pedro to nod Bukayo Saka’s corner into the six-yard box, where Saliba’s goal-bound header deflected in off Chelsea’s Mamadou Sarr.

Chelsea have conceded eight goals from set pieces in Rosenior’s first 13 matches, and four of those have been against Arsenal.

But the Blues got their revenge on the stroke of half-time.

Arsenal were given a warning when James’s corner hit Declan Rice’s shoulder, forcing David Raya to make a superb save.

But they did not learn the lesson, and from the resulting corner, James’s in-swinger was headed into his own net by Hincapie.

Arsenal remained vulnerable from James’s corners, and Joao Pedro should have done better than head straight at Raya before nodding wide from another of the Chelsea captain’s teasing set pieces.

Those misses proved costly for Chelsea as Arsenal once again showed their own set-piece prowess in the 66th minute.

Timber made a perfectly timed run to head home from Rice’s corner, with Chelsea’s furious appeals for a foul on Sanchez failing to get the goal overturned.

It was the 16th league goal scored from a corner by the Gunners this season, and their jubilant fans celebrated by chanting “set piece again, ole, ole”.

Neto, booked for protesting in the aftermath of Timber’s goal, rashly took out his frustration on Gabriel Martinelli, chopping down the Arsenal winger to earn his marching orders in the 70th minute.

Arsenal still needed a brilliant stoppage-time save from Raya to deny Alejandro Garnacho before they could celebrate.

Timber said Arsenal should “enjoy” the thrilling title race.

“We have to enjoy it. It is a privilege to be standing here with my teammates fighting for this title. It is a beautiful place,” he said.

“There are nine games to go, but we have to go game by game. Hopefully, there will be something beautiful at the end of it.”

James, meanwhile, admitted that Chelsea are receiving too many red cards due to ill-discipline.

“We have spoken. It has come up a number of times. Every time, it is someone different. We need to review it internally,” the Chelsea captain said.

“Of course, it is a problem. We are playing in the toughest league in the world. [Having] 11 vs 11 [players] is tough. [Having] 10 vs 11 is even harder, no matter who you’re playing.”

Earlier on Sunday, Manchester United climbed up to third place in the Premier League with a 2-1 win against Crystal Palace.

Benjamin Sesko’s seventh goal in eight games sealed the win at Old Trafford that moved United above Aston Villa on goal difference.

“It feels like a big result,” said United captain Bruno Fernandes, who scored from the penalty spot.

At the other end of the table, Tottenham’s winless run extended to 10 games after a 2-1 loss at Fulham – leaving them mired in a fight to avoid relegation.