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This week, record temperatures and dry conditions have caused evacuations across France, Spain, and Portugal, causing deadly wildfires and extreme heat in southern Europe.

One person was killed and nine others were hurt in a massive wildfire in southern France’s Aude region, making it the biggest wildfire this year.

In less than 24 hours, the fire, which started on Tuesday, has already scorched at least 15, 000 hectares (37, 000 acres), or more than the city of Paris. Forest fires have ravaged villages, damaged or destroyed at least 25 homes, and the fire is still ignoble, according to emergency officials.

In a post on X, President Emmanuel Macron urged people to use “the utmost caution” and stated that “all of the nation’s resources are being mobilized.

In addition to 600 vehicles and water-dropping aircraft, over 1,800 firefighters have been dispatched to battle the blaze.

Remi Recio, deputy prefect of Narbonne, stated that the Aude department has the most personnel and resources that can be had in the entire south of France.

Another person is missing, while an elderly woman who refused to leave was killed. Seven firefighters were inflicted with smoke inhalation, including one who was in critical condition with burns and two civilians were hurt.

Roads were blocked, and camping areas and at least one village had to be partially evacuated. David Cerdan, a 51-year-old man who eluded the French village of Saint-Laurent-de-la-Cabrerisse, said, “I left everything behind me.” I’m putting that perspective into perspective. There is no harm to me whatsoever.

According to officials, the fire has already squandered more than double the amount of land burned by all French wildfires combined in 2024. According to fire official Roesch, “The fire is advancing in an area where all the conditions are favorable for it to continue.” This fire will keep us busy for a while. It’s a long-term operation.

The cause investigation is currently being conducted. According to France’s environment ministry, dry vegetation and drought conditions are to blame for the spread, with water restrictions already in place in the Aude region.

According to climate and agriculture expert Serge Zaka, “the Mediterranean has the highest fire risk.” It is the hottest and dryest region of France. These fire risks are anticipated to increase even more in the summer due to climate change.

About 300 people were injured in a fire that occurred last month near Marseille. According to scientists, Europe, the continent with the fastest-warming climate, is experiencing more intense heat and dryness as a result of climate change.

Spain and Portugal are inundated with blazes caused by heat.

A severe heat wave that started on Sunday, which reached 43C (109F) in Spain, has caused numerous wildfires to spread throughout the country.

More than 1,500 people and 5, 000 vehicles were evacuated from the Andalusian resort town Tarifa after a fire broke out near La Pena, a wooded area close to the beach. Strong winds were responsible for the rapid spread of the fire, which is thought to have started in a camper van.

The wind, or whether it shifts between the west and the east, is what worries us most at this time, according to Andalusia’s interior minister Antonio Sanz.

Despite nighttime efforts, residents were unable to leave the blaze, which remained active and stayed in hotels and tourist destinations.

Additionally, Corme Aldea village had to be evacuated because of a fire in the Galician region close to Ponteceso. According to state broadcaster RTVE, a blaze that erupted on Tuesday in Cadiz caused a large evacuation of the area.

Through Friday, the Spanish meteorological agency AEMET has issued orange alerts for various regions. Authorities for civil protection issue “high” or “extreme” fire risk warnings for a large portion of the nation.

According to data from the country’s national mortality monitoring system, the Ministry of Health reported 1, 060 extra deaths linked to extreme heat in July, a 57 percent increase over the same month last year. Although the data does not directly identify causes, it is frequently used to estimate heat-related deaths.

More than 42, 000 hectares (104, 000 acres) of wildfires have already been burned in Portugal, the largest area since 2022 and eight times as much as it was at this time last year. In the last two weeks, more than half of that land has been scorched.

On Wednesday, firefighters managed to control a large fire close to Vila Real in the north, but others are still active. Due to the city’s close proximity to densely populated areas, one fire in Amarante persisted, while another in A Coruna reached an emergency level 2.

More than 100 municipalities are in the highest risk of ignominating fire in soaring temperatures in Lisbon until August 7.

After 22 months of full-scale war, killing more than 60,000 Palestinians and forcing Gaza to the brink of famine, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly preparing to defy international, domestic and military opinion by escalating the war on Gaza still further and ordering its full occupation.

“The die is cast – we are going for a full occupation of the Gaza Strip,” Israeli media cited an anonymous official, supposedly quoting Netanyahu, as saying.

Meeting with senior security officials on Tuesday, Netanyahu was said to have come out in support of the military taking complete control of Gaza, even if it meant that the remaining Israeli captives there might be harmed or killed.

The fate of the captives taken during the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, has been a constant theme throughout Israel’s war on Gaza and rescuing them was one of the war aims Netanyahu claimed at its outset.

However, despite the destruction of much of Gaza and the displacement and starvation of much of its population, many captives remain and the territory where they are thought to now be is outside Israeli military control.

“Netanyahu wants to continue the war,” Ahron Bregman, a political scientist at King’s College London and former Israeli officer, said, echoing a widespread criticism of the prime minister.

“He wants time. He wants time to maintain his coalition and time to drag out his corruption trial,” he said of the criminal charges that have dogged Netanyahu since 2019.

Motivation

The specific reason for this latest potential offensive remains unclear.  Some have suggested that talk of occupation is a tactic to bring Hamas back to the negotiating table.

The siege Israel imposed on Gaza after breaking the last ceasefire in March has caused international outrage because of the starvation it has caused. Others have suggested it may also be a genuine attempt to eradicate Hamas and finally break whatever spirit remains in Gaza’s population and force them into “concentration zone” camps.

“It could be any of them,” Israeli political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg said. “Netanyahu has proven in the past that he doesn’t care about popular opinion or mass protest, as long as his right-wing base is happy.

“We saw that in Rafah, which he destroyed, and we saw that with Iran, which he attacked. It doesn’t matter what most people think. He just needs to keep the base on side and worry about elections later. This has been the strategy for much of the last two years.”

The real question is whether the army is capable of occupying all of Gaza, Flaschenberg added.

“There’s huge fatigue within the military, extensive PTSD [post-traumatic stress disorder] and massive numbers of both overt and grey [private] refusals,” he said of what was estimated by the Israeli magazine +972  in April to be a shortfall in troops of more than 100,000.

“This is not realistic at all,” former US Special Forces commander Colonel Seth Krummrich of international security firm Global Guardian said of Netanyahu’s plans to occupy Gaza.

“To capture and hold terrain takes an enormous number of soldiers and resources. The Israeli population is divided on this issue, so there are domestic headwinds that will not support this level of mobilisation,” he said of widespread protests in Israel calling for an end to the war.

Refuseniks

Irrespective of the politics, many in the Israeli army and security services have opposed Netanyahu’s and his right-wing allies’ plans to occupy Gaza, as well as continuing with the war on the enclave more generally.

Several senior Israeli military officers, including Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, are understood to oppose any further escalation in Gaza at all.

On Tuesday, more than 600 former Israeli senior security officials signed an open letter calling on US President Donald Trump to use his influence to help bring the war to a close.

“It is our professional judgement that Hamas no longer poses a strategic threat to Israel,” the Commanders for Israel’s Security (CIS) group said in a post on X, where it shared the open letter to President Donald Trump

CIS describes itself as “Israel’s largest group of former [Israeli military] generals and Mossad, Shin Bet, Police, and Diplomatic Corps equivalents”.

“From the military point of view, [Hamas] is totally destroyed. On the other hand, as an ideology, it is getting more and more power among the Palestinian people, within the Arab street around us, and also in the world of Islam,” Ami Ayolon, the former head of Israel’s Shin Bet internal intelligence agency and one of the letter’s signatories, told the BBC.

“The lack of support from the upper echelons of the military would also prove vital,” Colonel Krummrich added. “The military leadership has to ‘own’ this operation. If it fails, the military leadership gets blamed. They have to convince their soldiers that it is worth the cost, especially over the long term – potentially stretching into years,” he said.

Why would Netanyahu push for the occupation of Gaza?

Any further escalation in Gaza is also certain to prove unpopular with the public, which is already tired of the endless war, analysts said.

Some polls show widespread public opposition in Israel to the war, with frustration over Netanyahu’s repeated excuses for his government’s failure to reach a ceasefire deal, which could bring the remaining captives home, tangible.

Critically, in May, a poll for Israel’s Channel 12 showed that most Israelis thought Netanyahu cared more about clinging to power than he did winning the war.

“When you look at the list of people who’ve come out against this, including Zamir, it begs the question why,” Yossi Mekelberg of Chatham House said. “Are Hamas really so great a threat that you’d sacrifice the hostages, sacrifice soldiers’ lives and sacrifice what’s left of the country’s reputation?” he asked.