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‘I thought I had it’ – but will US Open near miss help MacIntyre’s major hunt?

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For 42 faintly ridiculous minutes in the early hours of Monday morning – Oban time – Robert MacIntyre looked like he might become a major champion.

That was the span between his unlikely emergence as co-leader of a sodden US Open and JJ Spaun holing an astonishing 64-foot putt to deny the Scot any hope of a play-off.

Sitting in the clubhouse, a still soaked MacIntyre gawped at the TV screen, clattered his macerated hands together in applause, and mouthed “wow” as his dream died.

“I thought I had this one, to be honest,” the 28-year-old admitted, a couple of hours later, as he spoke to the Scottish media from the back of a car leaving the course.

He was not the only one.

While those behind him on the course were, one-by-one, being washed away at a soggy Oakmont, MacIntyre was the one keeping his head above water amid what he described as “the toughest test I’ve ever encountered”.

Birdie on 14 had returned him to level par for the day and two over in total. Having started the day seven back, he was now tied for the lead.

Sam Burns and Adam Scott had frittered away their overnight advantage. Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton and Carlos Ortiz were treading water, literally and figuratively.

Spaun – behind MacIntyre on the course – was the only other player heading in the right direction after reaching the turn in a wretched 40. A change of clothes leading to a change of fortune for the Californian who had four birdies in his final seven holes.

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‘There is no reason I can’t win one’

What the events of the past week or so in Pennsylvania might also have taken away are questions over MacIntyre’s place at the summit of the game.

He might have started the season’s third major 20th in the world rankings, but few outside his homeland readily reached for his name among their lists of contenders.

His record in the game’s biggest events trends more towards solid than spectacular.

Tied 12th in the 2021 Masters. Tied eighth in last year’s US PGA Championship. Tied sixth in the 2019 Open. All impressive, but none were realistic runs at the big prize.

It mirrors his form this season on the PGA Tour. Only two missed cuts but only three top 10s after two breakthrough victories last season.

But what happened at Oakmont was different.

MacIntyre was the only player from the overnight top-10 to break par in the final round. His two-under 68 was one of the best rounds he will likely ever sign for given the conditions, 90-minute mid-round weather delay, and what was at stake.

While others were diminished, he seemed to grow.

“My previous rain-delay comebacks haven’t been strong,” MacIntyre said. “But today was the day I said to myself, ‘why not, why shouldn’t it be me?’.

“I’ve put a lot of work into this – it’s not just luck. I just had to trust myself.”

That trust took him within a couple of putts of becoming Scotland’s first major winner since Paul Lawrie at the equally-sodden 1999 Open.

It also put another $2,322,000 into his increasingly-bulging pockets and hoisted him up to 12th in the world, as well as fourth in the European Ryder Cup standings.

He is due to play again this week at the Travelers Championship in Connecticut. He will then head home to Oban after 11 weeks on the road prior to the defence of his Scottish Open title next month.

The week after that, it’s The Open at Royal Portrush and another chance to flex his major muscles at a venue where he started and finished well in 2019, as Shane Lowry romped to victory.

The rise of Oban’s local hero

Born and bred in Oban, MacIntyre has lived on a golf course for much of his life.

His bedroom at the family home looks on to the 12th green at Glencruitten Golf Club, where his father Dougie works as greenkeeper.

His mother Carol, without question his biggest fan, regularly travels to America to ensure he gets some home cooking. And sisters Gillian and Nicola gave up plenty of time and opportunities during their own teenage years to support their brother.

More recently, his girlfriend Shannon has been by MacIntyre’s side as he travelled around the world pursuing his second favourite sport.

Shinty is his first love, and was a regular with Oban Celtic until he reluctantly had to hang up his Caman lest an injury derailed his golf.

After a successful amateur career, during which he won the Scottish Boys Open, Scottish Championship and Scottish Amateur titles and represented GB&I in the 2017 Walker Cup, MacIntyre made the leap into the professional ranks.

In his first season on the European Tour, he won the Sir Henry Cotton Rookie of the Year title. And wins in Cyprus and Italy followed before his victory at the Canadian Open last year – with his dad Dougie on the bag – put his name in lights.

That was quickly followed by his Scottish Open triumph, MacIntyre becoming the first home-based player to win title since Colin Montgomerie in 1999.

Add in being an unbeaten rookie in Luke Donald’s European Ryder Cup team in Rome two years ago, and his CV is enviable.

Yet when you speak to him, he remains the humble young man I first met around 14 years ago at a charity event at Kingsfield in West Lothian.

Related topics

  • Golf

Will US Open near miss help MacIntyre’s major hunt?

To play this video you need to enable JavaScript in your browser.

For 42 faintly ridiculous minutes in the early hours of Monday morning – Oban time – Robert MacIntyre looked like he might become a major champion.

That was the span between his unlikely emergence as co-leader of a sodden US Open and JJ Spaun holing an astonishing 64-foot putt to deny the Scot any hope of a play-off.

Sitting in the clubhouse, a still soaked MacIntyre gawped at the TV screen, clattered his macerated hands together in applause, and mouthed “wow” as his dream died.

“I thought I had this one, to be honest,” the 28-year-old admitted, a couple of hours later, as he spoke to the Scottish media from the back of a car leaving the course.

He was not the only one.

While those behind him on the course were, one-by-one, being washed away at a soggy Oakmont, MacIntyre was the one keeping his head above water amid what he described as “the toughest test I’ve ever encountered”.

Birdie on 14 had returned him to level par for the day and two over in total. Having started the day seven back, he was now tied for the lead.

Sam Burns and Adam Scott had frittered away their overnight advantage. Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton and Carlos Ortiz were treading water, literally and figuratively.

Spaun – behind MacIntyre on the course – was the only other player heading in the right direction after reaching the turn in a wretched 40. A change of clothes leading to a change of fortune for the Californian who had four birdies in his final seven holes.

To play this video you need to enable JavaScript in your browser.

‘There is no reason I can’t win one’

What the events of the past week or so in Pennsylvania might also have taken away are questions over MacIntyre’s place at the summit of the game.

He might have started the season’s third major 20th in the world rankings, but few outside his homeland readily reached for his name among their lists of contenders.

His record in the game’s biggest events trends more towards solid than spectacular.

Tied 12th in the 2021 Masters. Tied eighth in last year’s US PGA Championship. Tied sixth in the 2019 Open. All impressive, but none were realistic runs at the big prize.

It mirrors his form this season on the PGA Tour. Only two missed cuts but only three top 10s after two breakthrough victories last season.

But what happened at Oakmont was different.

MacIntyre was the only player from the overnight top-10 to break par in the final round. His two-under 68 was one of the best rounds he will likely ever sign for given the conditions, 90-minute mid-round weather delay, and what was at stake.

While others were diminished, he seemed to grow.

“My previous rain-delay comebacks haven’t been strong,” MacIntyre said. “But today was the day I said to myself, ‘why not, why shouldn’t it be me?’.

“I’ve put a lot of work into this – it’s not just luck. I just had to trust myself.”

That trust took him within a couple of putts of becoming Scotland’s first major winner since Paul Lawrie at the equally-sodden 1999 Open.

It also put another $2,322,000 into his increasingly-bulging pockets and hoisted him up to 12th in the world, as well as fourth in the European Ryder Cup standings.

He is due to play again this week at the Travelers Championship in Connecticut. He will then head home to Oban after 11 weeks on the road prior to the defence of his Scottish Open title next month.

The week after that, it’s The Open at Royal Portrush and another chance to flex his major muscles at a venue where he started and finished well in 2019, as Shane Lowry romped to victory.

The rise of Oban’s local hero

Born and bred in Oban, MacIntyre has lived on a golf course for much of his life.

His bedroom at the family home looks on to the 12th green at Glencruitten Golf Club, where his father Dougie works as greenkeeper.

His mother Carol, without question his biggest fan, regularly travels to America to ensure he gets some home cooking. And sisters Gillian and Nicola gave up plenty of time and opportunities during their own teenage years to support their brother.

More recently, his girlfriend Shannon has been by MacIntyre’s side as he travelled around the world pursuing his second favourite sport.

Shinty is his first love, and was a regular with Oban Celtic until he reluctantly had to hang up his Caman lest an injury derailed his golf.

After a successful amateur career, during which he won the Scottish Boys Open, Scottish Championship and Scottish Amateur titles and represented GB&I in the 2017 Walker Cup, MacIntyre made the leap into the professional ranks.

In his first season on the European Tour, he won the Sir Henry Cotton Rookie of the Year title. And wins in Cyprus and Italy followed before his victory at the Canadian Open last year – with his dad Dougie on the bag – put his name in lights.

That was quickly followed by his Scottish Open triumph, MacIntyre becoming the first home-based player to win title since Colin Montgomerie in 1999.

Add in being an unbeaten rookie in Luke Donald’s European Ryder Cup team in Rome two years ago, and his CV is enviable.

Yet when you speak to him, he remains the humble young man I first met around 14 years ago at a charity event at Kingsfield in West Lothian.

Related topics

  • Golf

New India captain Gill to face England – how does he compare to batting greats?

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  • 141 Comments

Shubman Gill is not short on confidence.

Nicknamed ‘Prince’ by India cricket supporters, he is regarded as the next big thing to follow the ‘Little Master’ Sachin Tendulkar and ‘King’ Virat Kohli.

India’s prince is now a ruler, though, with the fresh-faced batter taking over the Test captaincy reins from Rohit Sharma for this summer’s tour of England.

The fact Gill has leaned into the ‘Prince’ moniker by having it inscribed on his bat – to the annoyance of some fans – underlines the unwavering belief in his talents.

How does Gill compare?

Let’s start with the most impressive of all Gill stats: he has the second-best one-day international batting average of all time (59), sandwiched between the Netherlands’ Ryan ten Doeschate (67), who is on the India coaching staff for this tour, and Kohli (58) himself.

Maybe it’s unfair to draw comparisons in Test cricket just yet, but there’s no denying 25-year-old Gill is following in a rich lineage of Indian cricket batting greats.

And this is where he doesn’t quite live up to his lofty billing. His Test batting average of 35 lags behind Rahul Dravid, Sachin Tendulkar, Sourav Ganguly, Rohit Sharma and Kohli at the same stage of their career.

In fact, it’s significantly behind Dravid and Tendulkar, who were both averaging the widely accepted world-class mark of 50 by their 32nd Test.

But while Tendulkar – the most prolific international batter of all time – was just 16 when he made his Test debut, Gill was younger than both Kohli and Dravid when given his chance in the Boxing Day Test at the MCG in 2020.

The signs were good for Gill when he averaged almost 52 in three Tests in Australia as India lifted the Border-Gavaskar Trophy.

Dips in form and an injury in England in the summer of 2021 followed, but Gill’s trajectory was heading only one way.

His first Test century came in Bangladesh in 2022, before a career-best 128 against Australia in Ahmedabad in 2023 preceded two centuries against England on their tour of India in early 2024.

“There was a phase where I got 40s or 50s,” said Gill, speaking in 2023. “So I felt that I was being overly defensive after getting set. That isn’t my game. When I get set, I catch my rhythm.

“I’d rather accept being dismissed while going for a shot. It wasn’t acceptable to me that I got out while trying to adapt to a style which didn’t come naturally to me. All of my dismissals in this period were off defensive shots.”

So has Gill been more positive in recent years?

Can Gill conquer England?

Kohli, in particular, was desperate to do well in England after previous failures and Gill will surely be no different.

Curiously, he has played three Tests in England against three different opponents.

That happened by virtue of appearing in India’s two World Test Championship final appearances against New Zealand and Australia, plus one Test against England in 2022.

A top score of 28 in six innings will surely be improved upon this summer, but England will be more than aware that four of Gill’s dismissals in the UK have been either caught behind by the keeper or in the slip cordon.

What is interesting about Gill is how significantly better he is against spin (averaging 42) compared to pace (31).

Despite this, however, he is not a prolific sweeper. When he does use that shot he strikes at 212 per 100 balls.

He loves to latch on to anything short, striking at 190 on the pull shot which has brought him 29 fours and three sixes in Test cricket for the price of just one dismissal.

The shot which has brought him the most runs is the drive, but his strength is also a weakness, with that accounting for five dismissals.

Perhaps typical of any opener, some 21 of his dismissals in Test cricket have come playing a forward defensive shot. This is another reason why England will be packing the slip cordon with the new ball.

Interestingly, he averages 40 against fast bowling of 87mph upwards and 22 against the slower seam bowlers.

The retired James Anderson has got him out more than anyone else in Test cricket, while Gill has also struggled against Australia’s Scott Boland.

Graphic showing Shubman Gill's interception points when being dismissed playing a forward defensive shotCricviz/BBC

What about his captaincy?

Gill has some leadership experience, having captained India in five T20 internationals and taking charge of Gujarat Titans in the Indian Premier League.

Gujarat finished third in the 2025 IPL, having been eighth the year before – Gill’s first in charge. He has a win percentage of 52%, which is nothing spectacular compared to Hardik Pandya’s 71% in more games in charge of the Titans.

Australia great Ricky Ponting believes “leadership sits really well” with Gill, while the player himself says he is embracing the challenge.

If his desire to be more positive with the bat sounds very similar to the mantra within the England camp – Gill played under England head coach Brendon McCullum in the IPL – so is his leadership philosophy.

“What I like is communication with the players, making the players feel secure, talking to them, giving them comfort around their weaknesses and strengths,” Gill said when unveiled as skipper.

“If you are a captain of any team or a leader of any team, if your players feel very secure, only then they can give their 100%.”

What is for sure is that he will be more Kohli than Rohit in the field.

Never one to take a backward step, Gill sledged James Anderson and Jonny Bairstow in a Test in India, while umpires have felt his presence when in charge at the IPL.

Related topics

  • England Men’s Cricket Team
  • India
  • Cricket

How does new captain Gill compare to India batting greats?

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  • 14 Comments

Shubman Gill is not short on confidence.

Nicknamed ‘Prince’ by India cricket supporters, he is regarded as the next big thing to follow the ‘Little Master’ Sachin Tendulkar and ‘King’ Virat Kohli.

India’s prince is now a ruler, though, with the fresh-faced batter taking over the Test captaincy reins from Rohit Sharma for this summer’s tour of England.

The fact Gill has leaned into the ‘Prince’ moniker by having it inscribed on his bat – to the annoyance of some fans – underlines the unwavering belief in his talents.

How does Gill compare?

Let’s start with the most impressive of all Gill stats: he has the second-best one-day international batting average of all time (59), sandwiched between the Netherlands’ Ryan ten Doeschate (67), who is on the India coaching staff for this tour, and Kohli (58) himself.

Maybe it’s unfair to draw comparisons in Test cricket just yet, but there’s no denying 25-year-old Gill is following in a rich lineage of Indian cricket batting greats.

And this is where he doesn’t quite live up to his lofty billing. His Test batting average of 35 lags behind Rahul Dravid, Sachin Tendulkar, Sourav Ganguly, Rohit Sharma and Kohli at the same stage of their career.

In fact, it’s significantly behind Dravid and Tendulkar, who were both averaging the widely accepted world-class mark of 50 by their 32nd Test.

But while Tendulkar – the most prolific international batter of all time – was just 16 when he made his Test debut, Gill was younger than both Kohli and Dravid when given his chance in the Boxing Day Test at the MCG in 2020.

The signs were good for Gill when he averaged almost 52 in three Tests in Australia as India lifted the Border-Gavaskar Trophy.

Dips in form and an injury in England in the summer of 2021 followed, but Gill’s trajectory was heading only one way.

His first Test century came in Bangladesh in 2022, before a career-best 128 against Australia in Ahmedabad in 2023 preceded two centuries against England on their tour of India in early 2024.

“There was a phase where I got 40s or 50s,” said Gill, speaking in 2023. “So I felt that I was being overly defensive after getting set. That isn’t my game. When I get set, I catch my rhythm.

“I’d rather accept being dismissed while going for a shot. It wasn’t acceptable to me that I got out while trying to adapt to a style which didn’t come naturally to me. All of my dismissals in this period were off defensive shots.”

So has Gill been more positive in recent years?

Can Gill conquer England?

Kohli, in particular, was desperate to do well in England after previous failures and Gill will surely be no different.

Curiously, he has played three Tests in England against three different opponents.

That happened by virtue of appearing in India’s two World Test Championship final appearances against New Zealand and Australia, plus one Test against England in 2022.

A top score of 28 in six innings will surely be improved upon this summer, but England will be more than aware that four of Gill’s dismissals in the UK have been either caught behind by the keeper or in the slip cordon.

What is interesting about Gill is how significantly better he is against spin (averaging 42) compared to pace (31).

Despite this, however, he is not a prolific sweeper. When he does use that shot he strikes at 212 per 100 balls.

He loves to latch on to anything short, striking at 190 on the pull shot which has brought him 29 fours and three sixes in Test cricket for the price of just one dismissal.

The shot which has brought him the most runs is the drive, but his strength is also a weakness, with that accounting for five dismissals.

Perhaps typical of any opener, some 21 of his dismissals in Test cricket have come playing a forward defensive shot. This is another reason why England will be packing the slip cordon with the new ball.

Interestingly, he averages 40 against fast bowling of 87mph upwards and 22 against the slower seam bowlers.

The retired James Anderson has got him out more than anyone else in Test cricket, while Gill has also struggled against Australia’s Scott Boland.

Graphic showing Shubman Gill's interception points when being dismissed playing a forward defensive shotCricviz/BBC

What about his captaincy?

Gill has some leadership experience, having captained India in five T20 internationals and taking charge of Gujarat Titans in the Indian Premier League.

Gujarat finished third in the 2025 IPL, having been eighth the year before – Gill’s first in charge. He has a win percentage of 52%, which is nothing spectacular compared to Hardik Pandya’s 71% in more games in charge of the Titans.

Australia great Ricky Ponting believes “leadership sits really well” with Gill, while the player himself says he is embracing the challenge.

If his desire to be more positive with the bat sounds very similar to the mantra within the England camp – Gill played under England head coach Brendon McCullum in the IPL – so is his leadership philosophy.

“What I like is communication with the players, making the players feel secure, talking to them, giving them comfort around their weaknesses and strengths,” Gill said when unveiled as skipper.

“If you are a captain of any team or a leader of any team, if your players feel very secure, only then they can give their 100%.”

What is for sure is that he will be more Kohli than Rohit in the field.

Never one to take a backward step, Gill sledged James Anderson and Jonny Bairstow in a Test in India, while umpires have felt his presence when in charge at the IPL.

Related topics

  • England Men’s Cricket Team
  • India
  • Cricket

Who is Vance Boelter, the suspect in assassination of Minnesota lawmaker?

Police in the United States have captured Vance Boelter, accused of fatally shooting a Minnesota lawmaker and injuring another, after a two-day manhunt.

“The face of evil. After relentless and determined police work, the killer is now in custody,” the Ramsey County Sheriff’s Office said in a social media post on Sunday.

Here is all we know about the 57-year-old suspect and the case that has rattled the Midwestern state and raised concerns about political violence in the US.

What happened in the Minnesota shootings?

On Saturday, Boelter allegedly shot and wounded state Senator John Hoffman and his wife, Yvette, in their home in Champlin city. The Champlin police said they responded to reports of gunfire at the Hoffmans’ house about 2:07am (07:07 GMT).

Boelter is accused of then heading to Brooklyn Park, where he allegedly fatally shot another Democratic lawmaker, Melissa Hortman, a member of the Minnesota House of Representatives, and her husband, Mark in their home, about 15km (9 miles) from the Hoffmans’ house.

Authorities said the suspect posed as a police officer and also modified his vehicle, a Ford SUV, to look like a police car.

Who is Vance Boelter?

Boelter, a self-described security professional, was a political appointee on a state workforce development board. Records show that Hoffman was on the same 60-member board, but it is unclear whether Boelter and Hoffman knew each other.

According to state records, Boelter was first appointed to the board in 2016 by then-Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton and reappointed in 2019 by current Governor Tim Walz, a Democrat, for a four-year term until 2023.

Boelter’s wife filed to create a company called Praetorian Guard Security Services LLC with the same address as the couple’s listed mailing address in Green Isle in Sibley County, according to corporate records. The company offers security services, including contract security guards for sites, including residential properties and schools.

Authorities identified Boelter as a suspect on Saturday, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) announced a reward of up to $50,000 for information leading to his arrest and conviction.

Walz said Boelter was apprehended on Sunday. “One man’s unthinkable actions have altered the state of Minnesota,” Walz said after Boelter’s arrest.

Law enforcement agents found three AK-47 assault rifles, a 9-mm handgun, a list of  names and addresses of other public officials, a mask and a police-style gold badge in Boelter’s SUV, according to a criminal complaint unsealed on Sunday and shared by multiple news outlets.

What is Boelter charged with?

According to the criminal complaint, Boelter is charged with four felony charges: two counts of second-degree murder and two counts of second-degree attempted murder.

According to the complaint, three of these four charges can lead to maximum jail terms of 40 years. His bail is set at $5m.

Boelter is being held in the Hennepin County Jail in Minneapolis. He is scheduled to appear in court on Monday at 1:30pm (18:30 GMT).

Where did police find Boelter?

CBS News, quoting unnamed law enforcement officials, reported that Boelter was arrested near his home in Green Isle. Sibley County is in the south-central part of Minnesota with a population of 14,836, according to the 2020 US Census.

The New York Times also reported that the police found what was believed to be Boelter’s vehicle in Green Isle, 10 minutes from Boelter’s listed address.

What do we know about the victims?

Both Hortman and Hoffman belonged to Minnesota’s Democratic Party-affiliated Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party.

Hortman, 55, had been a Democratic leader in the House since 2017. She also served as the speaker of the House for six years until 2024 when Democrats lost their majority, making way for Republican Lisa Demuth. Hortman and her husband are survived by two adult children.

Initial autopsy reports from the Hennepin County Medical Examiner’s Office listed the causes of the Hortmans’ deaths as “multiple gunshot wounds”. The reports said Melissa Hortman died at the scene while her husband died in the hospital.

In 2023, Melissa Hortman helped pioneer protections for abortion rights, safeguarding the status of Minnesota as a refuge for people seeking abortions in the wake of the US Supreme Court ruling overturning the constitutional right to an abortion.

The Champlin police found the Hoffmans with “multiple gunshot wounds”. According to Walz, both underwent surgery. “We are cautiously optimistic they will survive this assassination attempt,” Walz said at a news conference, adding that Hoffman was hit by nine bullets.

John Hoffman, 60, was elected to the Minnesota Senate in 2012. The Hoffmans have an adult daughter.

Do the shootings have anything to do with the ‘No Kings’ protests?

The Minnesota State Patrol posted photos on its X account on Saturday of papers with “NO KINGS” handwritten on them. “The photo is of flyers inside the vehicle of the suspect in today’s shootings,” the agency posted.

Some No Kings protests, which were critical of President Donald Trump’s policies, were cancelled on Saturday in Minnesota as a result on the recommendation of Walz while other protests commenced as planned. Walz cancelled his scheduled appearance at a protest at the state capital, St Paul, where thousands of protesters gathered outside the State Capitol building, about 40km (25 miles) from where the shootings took place.

The No Kings protests were coordinated across the US on Saturday, Trump’s 79th birthday and the day he hosted a parade in Washington, DC, to mark the US army’s 250th anniversary.

Do we know Boelter’s political affiliation?

Walz said he considers the assassinations “politically motivated” during a news conference on Saturday, but the exact motive is unknown. Al Jazeera has not been able to independently clarify whether Boelter has voted Democrat or Republican recently.

In Minnesota, voters are not required to declare their political affiliations when registering to vote. A report linked to the workforce boards in 2016 and 2020 listed Boelter as having “none or other” affiliation and “no party preference” respectively, The New York Times reported.

However, a man named David Carlson, who identified himself as Boelter’s current roommate, told the Minnesota-based television channel KARE-TV that Boelter voted for Trump in the 2024 election. Carlson said Boelter had not discussed politics recently.

The Minnesota Star Tribune newspaper reported that the police found a list purportedly written by Boelter containing the names of “prominent pro-choice individuals in Minnesota, including many Democratic lawmakers”. The Tribune also quoted Carlson saying that Boelter “really hated abortion” through the 1990s.

The AP reported that Carlson also read texts to reporters that Boelter had sent to friends: “I’m going to be gone for a while. May be dead shortly, so I just want to let you know I love you guys both and I wish it hadn’t gone this way. … I’m sorry for all the trouble this has caused.”

How have authorities reacted?

In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump said the attack “appears to be a targeted attack against State Lawmakers”.

Trump added: “Our Attorney General, Pam Bondi, and the FBI, are investigating the situation, and they will be prosecuting anyone involved to the fullest extent of the law. Such horrific violence will not be tolerated in the United States of America. God Bless the great people of Minnesota, a truly great place!”

Minnesota’s House speaker said in a statement: “I am devastated by the loss of Speaker-Emerita Melissa Hortman. She was respected by everyone at the Capitol as a formidable advocate for her values and her caucus. She battled fiercely, but never let it impact the personal bond that we developed serving as caucus leaders. Few legislators have had as large an impact on the State of Minnesota, and she was a nationally-recognized leader in energy policy.”

What would an Israel-Iran war mean for the global economy?

As Israel and Iran exchange deadly salvoes for a fourth day, there are growing concerns that the conflict will spread across one of the world’s key oil- and gas-producing regions. Equity markets initially were roiled after Israel’s surprise attack on Friday but have since stabilised.

A day after Israel killed several of Iran’s top military commanders and nuclear scientists and damaged some of its nuclear sites, Israel then hit Iran’s fossil fuel sector on Saturday with Iranian state media reporting a blaze at the South Pars gasfield. More than 220 people have been killed in the Israeli attacks, including at least 70 women and children, according to Iranian authorities.

Iran responded with a barrage of ballistic missile and drone strikes, a small percentage of which succeeded in penetrating Israeli defences, killing at least 24 people.

On his Truth Social platform, United States President Donald Trump warned Tehran that the next “already planned attacks” would be “even more brutal”, adding: “Iran must make a deal [on its nuclear programme] before nothing is left.”

As the conflict between the Middle East’s two most powerful militaries spirals towards a full-fledged war, financial markets and the aviation sector are taking a hit. Analysts are watching oil prices, and investors are turning to safe havens like gold.

And a full-blown war could make things even worse – much worse, experts warned.

What has happened to the price of oil?

Brent crude, the global benchmark, rallied to $74.60 per barrel early on Monday.

That marked an almost 7 percent increase from Thursday, the day before Israel launched its surprise attack.

Much of the world’s oil and other key commodities such as natural gas pass through busy sea lanes in the Middle East, including the Strait of Hormuz.

The strait, a narrow waterway separating Iran from the Gulf states, links the Arabian Sea to the Indian Ocean.

It is a conduit for one-third of the world’s seaborne oil supplies, channelling roughly 21 million barrels every day.

At its narrowest point, it is 33km (21 miles) wide. Shipping lanes in the waterway are even narrower, making them vulnerable to attack.

The conflict between Israel and Iran has revived a decades-old question of whether Tehran will close the maritime chokepoint, triggering an oil price rally.

Quoting key conservative lawmaker Esmail Kosari, the Iranian news agency IRINN reported that Tehran is considering closing the strait as the conflict with Israel intensifies.

According to Goldman Sachs, a worst-case scenario involving blockades in the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices above $100 per barrel.

Still, during the Iran-Iraq War from 1980 to 1988, in which both countries targeted commercial vessels in the Gulf, Hormuz was never completely closed.

What’s more, attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz would likely disrupt Tehran’s own exports, especially to China, cutting off valuable revenue.

According to Hamzeh Al Gaaod, an economic analyst at TS Lombard, a strategy and political research firm, “the repercussions to closing off the strait would be severe for Tehran itself.”

Have global inflation rates been affected?

When oil prices rise, the cost of production also goes up. This is eventually passed on to consumers, especially for energy-intensive goods like food, clothing and chemicals.

Oil-importing countries around the world could experience higher inflation and slower economic growth if the conflict persists.

Looking ahead, analysts warned that central banks would face reduced policy flexibility in trying to control rising prices.

“Central bankers from the G7 are currently on an [interest rate] cutting cycle, and so will be worried about a potential energy price shock,” Al Gaaod told Al Jazeera.

The Bank of England has recently slashed the United Kingdom’s base interest rate to 4.25 percent although the US Federal Reserve has held off on cutting rates in the wake of Trump’s tariffs, imposed on almost all countries since he returned to power in January.

How have markets responded?

Wall Street has taken a hit. On Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices shed 1.1 and 1.3 percent, respectively. In the Middle East, Egypt’s benchmark EGX 30 index fell 7.7 percent on Sunday while the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange 35 Index dropped 1.5 percent.

European equities also drifted down on the news of Israel’s attacks. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 fell a little more than 1.1 percent at the end of last week while the UK’s FTSE 100 ended 0.5 percent lower on Friday.

Still, some UK companies rallied. BAE Systems, a defence contractor, was up almost 3 percent on Friday, reflecting concerns that tensions could escalate.

In the US, share prices of military suppliers, including Lockheed, Northrop Grumman and RTX, also rose.

Elsewhere, oil companies BP and Shell gained in value with the former closing nearly 2 percent higher and the latter closing at just more than 1 percent higher.

The price of gold was also trading about 1 percent higher on Friday at $3,426 an ounce, close to the record high of $3,500 it hit in April.

On Monday, investors tempered some of their risk-off positioning with oil and gold prices falling and stock prices rising.

“It seems that markets are anticipating the conflict will remain relatively contained. Crucially, Iran has not attacked any US military assets in the region,” Al Gaaod said.

What has the impact been on the aviation sector with airspace closures?

Several airlines have suspended or cancelled flights in the Middle East, and some countries have shut their airspace.

Here is a list of some suspended and rerouted flights:

  • Emirates, the Middle East’s largest airline, said it has suspended flights to and from Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Iran until June 30 with flights to Lebanon halted until Sunday.
  • Etihad Airways has cancelled all flights between Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv until Sunday. The airline is also rerouting several other services and has advised customers to await updates regarding their flight status.
  • Qatar Airways has temporarily cancelled flights to Iran, Iraq and Syria due to ongoing tensions with passengers advised to check the status of their flights before travel.

Elsewhere, Iran’s official news agency IRNA reported that aviation authorities have shut down the country’s airspace until further notice.

On Friday, Iraq also closed its airspace and suspended all traffic at its airports, Iraqi state media reported. Eastern Iraq is home to one of the world’s busiest air corridors. Dozens of flights cross there at any one moment, flying between Europe and the Gulf – many on routes from Asia to Europe.

Jordan’s civil aviation authority said it had “temporarily” closed Jordanian airspace “in anticipation of any dangers resulting from the escalation happening in the region”.

For Al Gaaod, “there may be short-term disruption for Middle East tourism but only for a month or so. I suspect tourism will bounce back.”