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On CNN’s State of the Union on April 27, Chuck Schumer, the US Senate Minority Leader, provided a figure.
Trump, a Democrat from New York, claimed that he had never fully explained to voters that tariffs would raise their costs. According to him, “American families would have to pay about $4, 000 more annually” because it’s estimated it will increase the cost of living.
Given Trump’s frequent tinkering with what will be tariffed and when, it takes estimation and assumptions to determine how typical households would be affected. However, Schumer’s figure roughly corresponds to PolitiFact’s four independent estimates.
The midpoint of Schumer’s estimate, which ranges from $3, 100 to $4, 900 annually, is in line with Schumer’s estimate. According to a fifth group, consumers would pay $1, 243.
The groups’ divergent opinions regarding how the tariffs will be absorbed into the economy contributed to the estimate variations.
Schumer’s office did not respond to inquiries for this article.
Estimates from a number of organizations range around $4, 000.
Based on the tariffs he imposed before April 2 (including those on Canada and Mexico), the 10 percent broad-band tariffs on virtually every nation, and the 145 percent tariff on China, we came up with five estimates for how much Trump’s tariffs will affect US families. Trump announced higher country-by-country tariffs on April 2 but suspended for 90 days starting on April 9; however, the estimates do not account for the effects.
Indescending order, the estimates are shown here.
Yale Budget Lab: According to the most recent estimates from Yale University’s nonpartisan budget lab, there is an average loss of $4,900 per household. A more conservative calculation, which does not take changes in consumer behavior into account as losses, was provided by the lab, which came out to a $2,600 loss per family.
Low-earning families would be hardest hit, according to the analysis. A family making between $30, 000 and $40, 000 would lose 5.1 percent of their income, which is more than twice the proportional loss of a family earning well above $100, 000.
Lower-income households with higher tariff costs are at the top of the income scale.
According to the liberal organization, the loss is estimated to be $ 4,600 annually.
The center-right think tank told PolitiFact that its pre-April 9 loss estimate of $3,900 per household is still accurate, despite the fact that it was based on a current 145 percent tariff on China. According to Jacob Jensen, the group’s trade policy analyst, tariffs as high as 145 percent typically result in lower revenue than tariffs set at lower rates.
The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center estimates that the average household loss would be $ 3,100.
Tax Foundation: At $1, 243, the center-right Tax Foundation calculated the loss to be lower than the other four.
The analysis by the Tax Foundation’s vice president of federal tax policy, Erica York, only covers households’ 2025 direct losses of income from higher taxes, according to PolitiFact.
Other groups’ estimates, according to York, include loss of quality of life as a result of switching to inferior products, taking the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy response into account, or using 2026, assuming that it has a full year of impact, as opposed to 2025, when the tariffs will remain in effect for less than a full year.
She argued that variations in numbers could be caused by using different techniques, including the Yale Budget Lab’s dual estimates as an illustration.
Our decision
According to Schumer, “it’s estimated” that “American families would have to pay about $4, 000 more a year” as a result of Trump’s tariffs.
Trump’s frequent pauses on some tariffs make it difficult to calculate the impact of the tariffs.
Estimates from four independent groups range on average from $3,100 to $4,900 annually. A more restrictive method was used to calculate the fifth’s estimated loss of $1, 243.
