Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan’s security forces are locked in what they describe as a “complex operation” against a group of separatists who attacked a train earlier on Tuesday. The train was traveling from Quetta, the provincial capital of the southwestern province of Balochistan, to Peshawar, the capital of the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
Fighters belonging to the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), a separatist group seeking Balochistan’s secession from Pakistan, claimed responsibility for the attack.
They targeted the Jaffar Express as the train was passing through a series of tunnels near Sibi city, about 160km (100 miles) from Quetta.
While security sources have said that their military operation was under way, authorities also confirmed that a group of passengers safely made their way to a smaller station near the site of the attack.
Rana Farrukh, a Pakistan Railways official in Quetta, said that nearly 70 passengers, including women, children, and the elderly, reached the Panir railway station, approximately 6km (4 miles) from the attack site.
“They completed the journey on foot, following the railway track”, Farrukh told Al Jazeera, without providing further details about the passengers.
The train was passing the Bolan Pass area, which is a rugged, mountainous region, when it was attacked.
Here is what we know so far about the attack, the current situation and what is the background behind the decades-long conflict between separatist groups and the Pakistani state in Balochistan.
What happened to the Jaffar Express?
The train was carrying more than 400 passengers, including many women and children, as well as dozens of security personnel.
It departed from Quetta at 9am (04: 00 GMT) on Tuesday morning, embarking on a journey of more than 1, 600km (994 miles) through Punjab to reach its final destination in Peshawar. The trip takes roughly 30 hours, with stops at around 30 stations across the country.
Railway officials said the attack occurred around 1pm (08: 00 GMT) as the train passed through the Bolan Pass. The area is home to several tunnels, originally constructed during British colonial rule.
Who claimed responsibility, and how has the government responded?
The BLA, which has carried out numerous attacks in the province over the past several years, claimed responsibility for the assault.
In a statement, the group claimed they had killed at least six military personnel and blown up the railway track, forcing the train to a halt. The BLA warned that any military operation in response would have “severe consequences”. The attackers claimed that passengers on the train were hostages now — though dozens of passengers later reached Panir.
The Pakistani military has not so far issued any official statement regarding the claims, and it did not respond to queries from Al Jazeera.
Shahid Rind, a provincial government spokesperson, said authorities had imposed an emergency in hospitals in Sibi, the nearest city, in essence placing all medical professionals there on alert to attend to any victims of the attack.
Government officials also strongly condemned the attack. Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi also expressed prayers for the recovery of the injured.
“The beasts who fire on innocent passengers do not deserve any concessions”, Naqvi’s statement read.
What do we know about casualties, and how is the government responding?
Hospitals in Quetta and Sibi are on high alert, but no injured passengers had been brought there until late on Tuesday night.
Railway officials said mobile connectivity in the remote, rugged terrain is virtually nonexistent, making it difficult to get timely updates.
Security sources claim the attackers are using some women and children as human shields, preventing an all-out offensive against them.
Authorities have also warned of an online disinformation campaign aimed at spreading panic.
Why has there been a surge in attacks in Balochistan?
Balochistan is Pakistan’s largest province by area but the least developed, with a population of 15 million people.
Despite being rich in minerals and natural resources, including copper and gas, the province has long been the site of conflict between the local population and the government.
Baloch separatists, who demand independence from Pakistan, accuse the state of abducting and persecuting those who speak out against it.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a $62bn mega-development project launched a decade ago, has added another layer of complexity to the conflict.
The BLA has carried out numerous attacks on Chinese interests, including at Gwadar Port, the flagship project of CPEC. Several Chinese citizens have been killed in these attacks.
In recent months, Balochistan has witnessed a dramatic surge in violence. Last month, at least 18 soldiers were killed in a BLA attack in Kalat city. Earlier in March, a female suicide bomber detonated herself, also in Kalat, killing a law enforcement officer.
The Jaffar Express has also been targeted multiple times. Last year, BLA fighters blew up a section of the track, halting the train service for two months.
In November, a suicide bombing at Quetta’s railway station targeted the train just before departure, killing at least 30 people, including security personnel.
How has the BLA enhanced its capabilities?
Analysts believe the BLA’s growing strength reflects the state’s failure to counter BLA fighters and its reliance on outdated strategies.
Malik Siraj Akbar, a Balochistan specialist based in Washington, DC, said the BLA has evolved from carrying out small-scale attacks, such as targeting individuals or sabotaging pipelines, to large-scale operations.
“The group now undertakes major attacks, like the recent assault on a passenger train. This shift reflects both its increasing audacity and its confidence that the government lacks the capability to contain them, let alone pursue them effectively after such high-profile acts of terrorism”, Akbar told Al Jazeera.
Rafiullah Kakar, a political analyst specialising in Balochistan affairs, said the BLA has strengthened its command structure, giving field militants more direct control over operations.
“Additionally, access to advanced weaponry, some of which was left behind by US forces in Afghanistan, has enhanced the group’s firepower, making their attacks more lethal and sophisticated”, Kakar told Al Jazeera.
Why has the state failed to curb the BLA’s rise?
In January, the Islamabad-based think tank Pak Institute of Peace Studies (PIPS) warned that the situation in Balochistan was “alarming”. Its report noted a 119 percent increase in attacks, with more than 150 incidents recorded last year.
The state announced plans for a major military campaign in Balochistan, but it has yet to materialise.
However, Akbar says that in the aftermath of such attacks, the state has repeatedly launched military operations – with those crackdowns often targeting innocent Baloch civilians, without evidence linking them to the BLA or the insurgency.
“The government seems more concerned with optics than justice, considering its job done once it parades a few dead bodies on camera, claiming swift retaliation”, he said.
He also argued that the military was at a disadvantage in retaliatory action against fighters in Balochistan.
“The BLA has superior knowledge of the terrain, whereas security forces, who mostly come from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab, lack familiarity with the land and routes. This gives insurgents a major advantage”, Akbar said, adding that the military was suffering from intelligence failures.
Can the government stop the BLA’s resurgence?
Kakar, who is pursuing a doctorate at the University of Cambridge, argued that the worsening security situation stems not just from intelligence failures, but from a widening disconnect between the state and Baloch citizens.
“Over the past decade, the province has become a laboratory for political engineering led by the military establishment, with six different chief ministers in 10 years, excluding caretaker setups”, he said.
This instability, he added, has eroded democratic processes, undermining parliamentary politics as a viable means of political struggle.
“The biggest beneficiaries of this growing state-citizen divide have been Baloch insurgents, who are increasingly able to recruit young men willing to embark on suicidal missions”, Kakar said.
Akbar agreed, arguing that the state refuses to treat the Baloch population with dignity.
“Islamabad relies on a provincial administration that acts as a puppet of the military, pushing propaganda to convince the world that there is no crisis in Balochistan and that the state remains firmly in control”, he said.
