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Guineans will vote on Sunday in a likely-surprising manner four years after military leader General Mamady Doumbouya led a coup that overthrew the country’s fragile democracy and toppled its civilian government of the day.

The young military leader, known for his signature wraparound sunglasses, is widely expected to win the vote on December 28 and solidify his hold on power in the resource-rich West African nation, as key opposition figures have been barred from participating.

Guinea, the largest exporter of bauxite, a crucial component of aluminum, and has a population of 15 million people. Doumbouya’s government is banking on its vast mines, especially the mega Simandou mine – one of the largest iron ore projects in the world, to create more jobs and revenue in the coming years. The nation has a lot of uranium, gold, and diamond deposits.

Doumbouya has gained some support due to new policies that have boosted mining exports. The general’s opponents, however, dispute his legitimacy, citing both his previous election-run pledge and his various media and protest bans.

The 2021 coup destabilised Guinea’s democratic trajectory. Guineans only voted in the first truly free and fair elections since independence from France in 1958 after decades of coups and dictatorships. The coup also caused suspensions from the African Union and sanctions from the regional Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) bloc.

Conakry, a coastal city in Guinea, serves as its capital. Most Guineans practise Islam (85 percent), while others are Christians and animists (15 percent). Although there are more than two dozen ethnic groups, the Fulani, Peul, Malinke, and Soso are the largest. The country is known for being the source of the Niger River, which flows through several countries and empties into the Atlantic Ocean through Nigeria.

How does voting work?

About 6.7 million eligible voters over the age of 18 have registered for the election. There are 23, 662 polling stations.

For a seven-year term, the president will be elected by an absolute majority vote through a two-round process.

A high turnout is expected based on the 87 percent of voters who turned up for a referendum held in September. More than 90% of those who voted “yes” to a new constitution, which increases the presidential mandate from five to seven, and creates a senate, where a third of the members would be presidential appointees, were largely seen as a test of Doumbouya’s popularity.

Nine presidential candidates have been cleared to run, although the major opposition challengers who stood a real chance were barred on technicalities. None of the eight opposition candidates has strong political standing. Candidates took part in an evening series on state television where they debated each other’s proposals weeks ahead of the vote.

Campaigns began on November 28 and ended midnight on December 25. Doumbouya largely stayed off the campaign trail, although his ministers travelled across the country, urging civilians and the military to vote at large rallies that featured musicians and attracted young people. This week, a private businessman also held a carnival in Conakry in aid of Doumbouya.

About 10, 000 election observers from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the European Union, the United Nations, the International Organisation of the Francophonie and several other organisations will be present.

Who has been excluded?

Cellou Dalein Diallo, 73

Diallo, a long-standing opposition leader, was going to be Doumbouya’s most formidable challenger. The former prime minister (2004-2006) heads the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG). He contested the elections of 2010 and 2015, but his archrival, Alpha Conde, won both of them. When the coup leaders seized power in 2021, Diallo welcomed the move and pledged his willingness to work with them in restoring democracy.

However, when Diallo was the transport minister, the Doumbouya government began a corruption investigation against him in relation to the sale of Air Guinee, the country’s national carrier, in 2002. Diallo, who accused the military ruler of a witch-hunt to block him from elections, has since been forced into exile in neighbouring Senegal and in France. His party was one of three suspended in August due to “substantial deficiencies” in the documents they submitted, according to the Ministry of Territorial Administration, the body’s representative, as opposed to an independent elections commission. Diallo was also disqualified based on his residency, as the new constitution adopted in September requires that presidential candidates have their primary residence in the country.

Alpha Conde, 87

After serving two five-year terms, Conde’s decision to run for a third term in 2021 caused chaos in Guinea and led to the coup in September.

A longtime opponent of military regimes in the country, Conde promised to strengthen democracy upon his election in 2010, after polls that, despite being turbulent, were also a chance for the country to depart from decades of dictatorship. In a free election, he became the first Guinean president to be elected. His government oversaw improvements in the mining sector and managed the 2014 Ebola epidemic, but is also accused of gross corruption and mismanagement.

He won a referendum in March 2020, pushing him to seek two more terms, claiming it raised his cap. The move led to widespread protests across the country that turned violent as the police and army attempted to shut them down, leading to dozens of deaths. At least 30 people were killed during the election in October 2020 as a result of the unrest. In September 2021, Conde was deposed and arrested by a group of soldiers led by Doumbouya, whom he had appointed in 2018 as head of the elite Special Forces Group. In Turkiye, it is thought that he is reportedly in exile. Conde’s Rally of the Guinean People (RPG) was one of the parties suspended in August because it had “not fulfilled the obligations required”, according to the authorities.

Sidya Toure, 80

The former prime minister (1996-1999) is another well-known opposition figure who has been sidelined. With 13% of the vote, he finished third in the historic elections of 2010. Toure is the leader of the Union of Republican Forces (UFR). He has spent a number of years living in exile in the Ivory Coast, and because of his foreign residency, he was exempt from the elections.

Who is running?

General Mamadou Doumbouya, 41

The incumbent is the clear favorite to win the elections, and activists and opposition parties accuse him of using the vote to legitimize and secure his rule.

Doumbouya took power in the September 2021 coup, deposing then-president Alpha Conde after months of tension and protests. He vowed to bring democracy into the country and end the hostility.

The regional ECOWAS bloc has pressured Doumbouya to present a fast transition timeline. Initial promises of an 18-month transition were made by the military ruler, who then largely ignored two deadlines and continued to do so. However, ECOWAS, while keeping up pressure, has not been overly critical. Contrary to his fellow countrymen in Mali, Niger, and Burkinabe, who were under pressure to hold elections after their coups, rebuffed ECOWAS by disbanding the alliance and creating a new one in January. ECOWAS is wary of antagonising Doumbouya and possibly causing Guinea to join the rival alliance.

Local news reports and civil society organizations claim that the Doumbouya government has since 2022 restricted local news organizations, banned protests, and targeted activists who were arrested. A week before the elections, authorities also blocked Facebook.

More than 2, 250 kilometres of new roads, schools, and hospitals have been constructed, according to the military ruler’s supporters. They also point to the launch of the mega Simandou iron ore mine project, which saw its first iron ore exports this year, 30 years after it was licensed to operate.

International interest has been piqued by the project. Analysts say that’s partly why Western governments, with whom Doumbouya has maintained a friendly stance even as Conakry ramps up trade with China, are careful not to criticise his hold on power.

The president has promised to increase the infrastructure improvements made over the past four years as campaign posters of the smiling Doumbouya are plastered across Conakry’s streets and in Kankan, his political stronghold. He has also pledged to build better democratic institutions, fight corruption, boost health and education access, and support women and youth. He is a candidate for the GMD movement, or Generation for Modernity and Development.

Others are:

• Former minister of education under Alpha Conde and former World Bank economist Aboulaye Yero Balde Balde is running under the Front for Democracy in Guinea (FRONDEG).
• The Front for National Alliance (FAN) party’s only female candidate, Makale Camara, is its president. She has promised better access to water and electricity, and wants to diversify the economy beyond mining. She served from 2016 to 2017 as a former foreign minister.
• Faya Millimono – the head of the Liberal Bloc party. He initially supported the military coup, but he now antagonizes Doumbouya because he was critical of Conde.
• Ibrahima Abe Sylla – the former energy minister under the military government, is running under the New Generation for the Republic party. He previously ran in 2020 and 2010.
• Abdoulaye Kourouma – the 2020 presidential candidate and former parliamentarian, is running under the Rally for Renaissance and Development party.
• Mohamed Nabe, a member of regional electoral missions, is an expert on electoral issues. He will run under the Alliance for Renewal and Progress party.
• Former parliamentarian Elhadj Bouna Keita is the RPG’s leader, R.P.G.
• Mohamed Cherif Tounkara – is running as an independent candidate.

What are the main problems?

The economy and mining

Guinea remains a poor country despite its immense mineral wealth. The International Labour Organization claims that the literacy rate is low and that about half of the workforce is unemployed.

Much hope for change hinges on restructuring in the mining sector to unlock lucrative deals for the country. Due to Doumbouya’s government’s reliance on the Simandou mine, which Chinese and Australian companies own stakes in, to provide sufficient funds to fund additional infrastructure and amenities. The first shipment from the mines left for China early in December, after a newly constructed railway allowed for ore to be transported out of the remote Simandou highlands to the port of Conakry. Many Guineans are optimistic about the proceeds, but there are also concerns that the government’s continued corruption could stifle the industry. Many are also concerned about the fate of the thousands of construction workers employed at the mine once building projects are complete.

Justice for the stadium massacre on September 28

In 2009, former military leader Moussa Dadis Camara, who seized power in 2008, oversaw the massacre of protesters who gathered in their tens of thousands at a stadium in Conakry to call for democratic rule. In an effort to halt their protests, Camara’s forces opened fire on the demonstrators. Many were shot, while others were crushed in the ensuing stampede. During the massacre, 109 women and girls were raped, and at least 156 were killed. It was one of the country’s most tragic events.

Camara, who eluded a coup and attempted assassination attempt months later, has long been a target of the yearned for justice and a trial in Guinea. Doumbouya’s government launched a 22-month-long trial against him, and a court convicted Camara and seven of his military commanders in July 2024. The verdict was hailed as a landmark case for justice by rights organizations. Camara was handed a 20-year sentence, and he and the others were ordered to pay compensation to the victims of the massacre. To the detriment of the victims and rights activists, Doumbouya pardoned Camara on alleged health grounds in March, just one year later.

Islamabad, Pakistan – In a publicly traded auction earlier this week, the government sold a majority stake in Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) for $ 482 million, putting an end to years of unsuccessful privatization attempts.

Arif Habib Limited (AHL), a Karachi-based securities brokerage, led the winning consortium, which includes AKD Group Holdings Limited, fertiliser manufacturer Fatima Fertilizer, private school network City Schools, and real estate firm Lake City Holdings Limited.

Following the successful bid, Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (FFC), a military-owned and publicly listed company, also joined the consortium. The group was in opposition to Air Blue, a private airline, and a rival consortium led by Lucky Cement.

The government made a significant public effort to privatize PIA following the government’s coverage of the auction. A previous effort in October 2024 collapsed when a single bid of $36m from a private real estate firm fell far short of the government’s $305m floor price.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which had urged Islamabad to turn over its state-owned businesses, prompted the privatization of PIA. By the end of this year, Pakistan, which is currently receiving a $ 7 billion loan from the IMF, had pledged to finish the airline’s privatization.

Here is what is known so far about the sale, the winning consortium, and why the deal has drawn criticism from opposition parties and other quarters.

What is known about the winning bid?

Bidding lasted 90 minutes, with a few breaks, in a crowded five-star hotel in Islamabad on Tuesday. Three parties submitted initial bids for a 75 percent stake in the national carrier.

Last year, the government restructured PIA by transferring long-term liabilities worth more than $2.3 billion into a separate entity in an effort to attract investors. Additionally, it provided tax relief and policy continuity guarantees, both of which the IMF had approved.

In the first round, Air Blue was disqualified from open bidding after offering $94.59m, well below the government’s minimum price of $356.9m.

Open bidding began once the two remaining consortia had raised the floor price. The AHL-led organization won the 75% stake with a final offer of $482 million.

At a news conference a day later, Muhammad Ali, the government’s adviser on privatisation, said 92.5 percent of the winning bid, amounting to about $446m, would be reinvested into PIA itself. The government would receive the remaining 36 million dollars, which will also retain a 25% stake, which will be roughly $ 160.6 million.

Later, Arif Habib revealed to a private television station that the consortium plans to also purchase the remaining 25% of the company in order to relaunch the airline by April of next year.

Under the terms of the deal, the consortium must pay two-thirds of the purchase price within three months, with the remaining one-third due within a year. Within three months, the remaining 25% of the company must be decided.

Why was PIA required to be privatized?

Once regarded as Pakistan’s most prestigious brand, PIA operated flights across the world and even boasted uniforms designed by Pierre Cardin. The airline quickly expanded its footprint with a fleet of 13 aircraft that were founded in 1955.

PIA reached a number of milestones after making its first international flight to London via Cairo and Rome. It became the first Asian airline to acquire a jet aircraft, the Boeing 707, opened new international routes, and is credited with helping launch Emirates, the Dubai-based carrier, in the 1980s.

However, more than 20 years later, the state is widely believed to be burdened by the airline. Successive governments attempted to delegate PIA, but failed as a result of protests by employee unions and opposition parties.

According to Ali, PIA accumulated more than $1.7bn in liabilities between 2015 and 2024, while long-term liabilities exceeded $2.3bn.

At Wednesday’s news conference, he stated that the process was “completed with extensive preparation and accountability” and that lessons from the past had been learned.

Ali claimed that PIA once operated nearly 40 international destinations and operated about 50. Today, only 18 aircraft are operational out of a fleet of 33.

He added that the airline currently operates 240 weekly round-trip flights, serves about 30 destinations, and controls more than 30% of the domestic market. With the expansion of private carriers, that share has fallen dramatically from its previous peak of at least 60% in recent years.

Additionally, PIA has access to more than 170 airport slots and has access to at least 78 landing points.

More than 19, 000 people, including at least 16, 000 permanent staff, were employed by the airline in 2014. Over the years, that number gradually reduced to fewer than 7, 000 employees.

In June 2020, a month after one of its aircraft plunged into a Karachi street, killing 97 people, PIA was also prohibited from flying to the United Kingdom and Europe. The pilots and air traffic control blamed human error for the disaster, which was followed by claims that nearly a third of the airline’s pilots’ licenses were fake or questioned.

However, the four-year ban from Europe was lifted in December 2024 by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency, and the Pakistani state-owned carrier resumed flights to the continent in January. The UK, &nbsp, also lifted its ban in July.

What are the objections to the auction’s outcome, and how do analysts feel about it?

While the government hailed the transaction as the “best possible outcome” with “great symbolic value”, opposition parties condemned the deal.

The former prime minister Imran Khan’s Tehreek Tahafuz Ayeen-i-Pakistan (TTAP), an opposition alliance led by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), objected to the privatization and warned that disposing of a national asset without a public mandate, parliamentary oversight, transparency, and constitutional legitimacy would be unacceptable.

Other commentators questioned the bidding process, calling it an “obfuscation” that raised more questions than answers. Some accused the government of effectively selling the 75 percent stake for just $36m — since the rest is to be invested back into an airline that its new, private owners will now benefit from.

Ali refuted those assertions.

“Our structuring was such that we received cash in the form of 10 billion rupees ($36 million) and our equity is valued at 45 billion rupees ($160 million). So, the government will get a value of 55 billion rupees ($196m) in total, and 125 billion rupees ($446m) will flow back into the airline”, he said.

Regardless of which government was in power, several economists and aviation analysts claim the outcome was the best possible arrangement.

The agreement was described as watertight by Fahd Ali, an assistant professor and economist at Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS).

“Critics have also been talking about the lucrative landing rights and routes that it holds and how the new owner may sell these to recover its costs. However, he claimed that “people don’t understand that the geese that lay the golden eggs” are the PIA’s destinations.

He claimed that the airline couldn’t capitalize on those routes because they needed additional funding from the state, and that selling them would hurt company earnings in the future.

“Given these constraints, the deal seems all right”, he said.

Economic commentator Khurram Husain from Karachi said the transaction was unusual and was less motivated by profit than the need to reduce losses.

You can profit from two opportunities. Either you shut it all down, denotify and delist the company, with PIA ceasing to exist. Or, he said, “to have them run it and hand it over to the private sector”

If the government hadn’t taken action, Husain, a former Woodrow Wilson Center fellow, claimed that PIA’s $2.3 billion long-term liabilities would have continued to grow.

“At what point does one stop? The government’s calculus was that. They were merely trying to control losses, he said.

Who is part of the consortium and why is the military’s inclusion raising questions?

Arif Habib, who owns the consortium, has business interests spanning brokerage, fertilizers, steel, and real estate. Prior to joining the Privatisation Commission, he was a member.

Other partners include Fatima Fertilizer, part of the Fatima Group and Arif Habib Group, City Schools, founded in the late 1970s and now operating more than 500 campuses with at least 150, 000 students, and Lake City Pakistan, a Lahore-based real estate developer. The group includes businessman Aqeel Karim Dhedhi’s business unit, AKD Holdings.

However, there has been discussion about the Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (FFC)’s decision to join the consortium following its sale. FFC, which is listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange, is a subsidiary of the military-run Fauji Foundation, which owns more than 40 percent of its shares.

FFC’s move is seen by some as an expansion of the military’s footprint into the aviation sector because it is Pakistan’s largest producer of fertilizer with interests in energy, food, and finance.

The military, which has been in full control of Pakistan’s affairs for more than three decades and has had a significant impact on political, social, and economic affairs, continues to be the country’s most powerful institution.

Critics point to the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) as an example of the military’s growing role in economic decision-making. The SIFC, a powerful group of civilian and military leaders tasked with promoting investment by removing bureaucracy, was established in June 2023 during Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s first term. Its lack of transparency has drawn insatiable criticism.

Husain said FFC’s presence in the consortium could prove “very significant” over the long term.

According to him, “It’s possible that what has really happened is that PIA has switched from one branch of the state to another” under the terms of the agreement.

According to Ali Khizar, an economic analyst based in Karachi, FFC’s inclusion might offer private investors long-term security assurances.

“Historically, we have seen in Pakistan with policies taking 180-degree turn with changing government, so perhaps they needed to ensure to have military presence for providing investor security. However, he claimed that if FFC and AHL both have more shares, that could affect their standing and decision-making.

According to Fahd Ali, military-run companies typically operate differently from state-owned companies (SOEs).

“They remain shielded from the political interference that besets other SoEs. Nevertheless, he warned that those who believe the state will be able to rid itself of PIA may be mistaken.

Concerns will persist if one airline, which is now backed by significant private capital and the military’s influence, assumes control of the aviation market, according to Khizar, despite the transaction’s breakthrough following two decades of unsuccessful attempts to privatize the carrier.

On December 28, observers predict there will be some protests, even violent, in three countries. The Central African Republic, Guinea, and Myanmar have been accused of organizing unfair, even fictitious elections. explains Soraya Lennie.