Washington, DC – Hours after the United States announced Nicolas Maduro’s abduction, Israeli politician Yair Lapid rebuked Tehran by saying, “The regime in Iran should pay close attention to what is happening in Venezuela.”
The forcible removal of Maduro from power came less than a week after US President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and threatened to launch new strikes against Iran.
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Although Washington’s tensions with Caracas and Tehran have different roots and dynamics, analysts say Trump’s move against Maduro raises the prospects of war with Iran.
The National Iranian American Council (NIAC) president Jamal Abdi said, “A new lawlessness makes everything less stable and war more likely.”
It’s difficult to imagine how this gives the many actors who are pushing for a new war with Iran, whether Trump agrees to “surgical” regime change or gives Netanyahu US support for similar actions.
He added that Maduro’s abduction could prompt Iran “to do something that triggers military action”, including developing its own military deterrence or preempting US or Israeli strikes.
The US’s actions in Venezuela, according to Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, further diminishes Trump’s ability to pursue diplomacy.
Tehran’s attitude toward me indicates that they are not interested in engaging in full surrender negotiations with the Trump administration, according to Mortazavi, who spoke to Al Jazeera.
“So, not much chance for diplomacy at the moment, which then opens the path to the opposite road, that is conflict. Israel, Iran, and the US are currently on a potential conflict path.
Abdi echoed that assessment. “This action reinforces every doubt and suspicion about US intentions, and gives more credence to those in Iran who say engaging the US is useless and]that] developing a nuclear deterrent is vital”, he told Al Jazeera.
alliance between Venezuela and Iran
Maduro was abducted and brought to the US by a US raid after Trump had been expressing his opposition to the Venezuelan government for months.
US officials have accused Maduro of leading a drug organisation, and Trump and his aides have been increasingly arguing that Washington is entitled to Venezuela’s vast oil reserves.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also emphasized Maduro’s ties to Iran, accusing Caracas of supplying Hezbollah, a Lebanese armed group, with impunity.
Both countries have been working hard to deepen their trade ties, which are estimated to be in the billions of dollars, because Maduro is a close ally of Iran.
So, with Maduro gone, Iran’s small network of allies may shrink further, after the fall of leader Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Iranian government quickly blasted the US’s attack on Venezuela and demanded that the UN intervene and put an end to the “unlawful aggression.”
The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated in a statement that the US’s military aggression against an independent state that is a member of the UN is a “serious breach of regional and international peace and security.”
“Its consequences affect the entire international system and will further expose the UN Charter-based order to erosion and destruction”.
Rubio made the suggestion on Saturday that Maduro’s disappearance sent a message to all of Trump’s rivals.
The top US diplomat told reporters, “He means it when he tells you he’s going to do something, when he tells you he’s going to address a problem.”
But Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei doubled down on his defiant rhetoric after the US raid in Caracas.
In a social media post, Khamenei declared, “We will not give in to the enemy.” The enemy will be brought to its knees by us.
Trump’s threats
Trump met with Israeli President Mahmoud Netanyahu in Florida last week, and he threatened to bomb Iran once more if it restarted its nuclear or missile arsenal.
Trump said, “I’ve heard that Iran is trying to grow up again, and if they do, we have to knock them down.” “We’ll knock them down. We’ll “kill” them in the uttermost way.
In June, Israel launched a military conflict with Iran, killing several nuclear scientists, hundreds of civilians, and top military figures.
The US joined in the attack, bombing Iran’s three main nuclear sites.
The Iranian government survived the assault, despite Trump’s repeated claims that the US strikes “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program and celebrated the victory.
Tehran fired hundreds of rockets at Israel, many of which pierced the nation’s complex air defenses, before the ceasefire was put in effect, allowing Iranian forces to continue firing until the war’s final moments.
Some critics argue that regime change was and remains Israel’s goal in Iran, and Trump appears to be increasingly buying into that objective.
Trump issued a warning on Friday that if the Iranian government kills protesters amid the country’s ongoing but occasionally violent anti-government demonstrations, the US would be “locked and loaded” and ready to attack Iran.
Late on Sunday, he threatened the same thing once more. “If they start killing people like they have in the past, I think they’re going to get hit very hard by the United States”, the US president said.
Could Iran be the site of a government decapitation similar to that of Venezuela?
Abdi of NIAC noted that Israel has already tried to murder several of its top leaders, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, in June.
Trump also repeatedly threatened Khamenei with assassination, and Israeli officials confirmed that they sought to “eliminate” the supreme leader during the war.
According to Abdi, Iranian officials have stated that they have plans in place to prevent the regime from being paralyzed or toppled by the government’s actions.
Given that Iran has the ability to retaliate against US interests and personnel, “launching a “snatch and grab” operation on them would be much messier.”
Venezuela without Maduro
At least for the moment, removing Maduro has not caused a regime collapse in Venezuela.
Venezuela’s acting president, Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, criticized the US attack and emphasized Maduro as the country’s only leader on Sunday.
She also suggested that Israel was involved in the abduction of Maduro, a vocal critic of the US ally.
The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela has undoubtedly been the target of a Zionist-style attack, according to Rodriguez, who said that “governments around the world are shocked.”
Trump threatened the Venezuelan president, telling The Atlantic magazine, that she would be “very much, probably bigger than Maduro” if she refused to accept US demands.
So, the US president’s plans for “running” Venezuela and taking its oil are not complete yet, and will likely require more military action.
Trump’s preferred model, “I doubt Venezuela can be a “one and done” or “short-term” situation. His style is “he engages in quick shows of force, not forever wars,” Mortazavi said.
She cited swift operations that Trump has ordered, including the killing of ISIL (ISIS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2019, the assassination of top Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in 2020, and the attack on Iran’s nuclear sites in June.
The Trump administration is aware that there are no more forever wars to be won by Americans, Mortazavi said.
Trump has already questioned whether Venezuela might be invaded by ground forces.
“We’re not afraid of boots on the ground”, he said. We don’t mind saying that, but we’re going to make sure that the nation is run as smoothly. We’re not going to waste any time doing this.
Abdi said that a long-term US involvement in Venezuela could indirectly stave off war with Iran.
He told Al Jazeera, “There is also the possibility that the US gets bogged down in “running” Venezuela and doesn’t have the resources to start the next Iran war” or to support Israel starting one.
After the US invaded Iraq in 2003, Iran was next on the list, and Trump may not want to pronounce “mission accomplished” yet. We are aware of what took place there.
The oil question
However, some critics, including Republican US Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, claim that a potential war with Iran will help the US if it is able to halt Venezuela’s oil-producing industry disruptions.
According to Greene, “the next obvious observation is that, by removing Maduro, this is a clear move for control over Venezuelan oil supplies that will guarantee stability for Iran’s next undeniable regime change war.”
About 20 percent of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran may push to shut down in the case of an all-out war.
Abdi claimed that Venezuelan oil “could theoretically provide some cushion” for the Gulf region’s export losses.
