Liverpool 28.9% likely to win Premier League this season

Liverpool are most likely to be crowned Premier League champions this season, a research group has said.

Arne Slot led the Reds to the 2024-25 title in his first season in charge as they finished 10 points clear of second-placed Arsenal.

And now, the CIES (International Centre for Sports Studies) Football Observatory, has said Liverpool have the highest probability of lifting the trophy again, with a 28.9% chance.

Arsenal are given a 18.8% chance of winning the title, while Chelsea (16.2%) rank third – ahead of 10-time champions Manchester City on 14.4%.

Celtic are 63.3% likely to win the Scottish Premiership again, with rivals Rangers having a 28.9% probability despite enduring their worst league start since 1983.

In Spain’s La Liga, Real Madrid (40.6%) are most likely to reclaim the trophy, with Barcelona given a 29.6% chance of defending their title.

Bayern Munich stand out as Bundesliga favourites in Germany on 61.4%, ahead of Borussia Dortmund (8.8%).

In Serie A, the top three are Inter Milan (25.6%), Juventus (18.2%) and Napoli (17.4%).

Paris St-Germain, meanwhile, are 73.0% likely to win a fifth straight Ligue 1 title in France.

The CIES Football Observatory have developed a statistical model for predicting which clubs will win the title in 29 leagues.

The model combines sporting, economic and demographic variables, taking several factors into account – such as passes into the final third and transfer fees .