Japan to vote for new PM amid political uncertainty: All you need to know

The Diet, the country’s legislative body, will convene for an extraordinary session to choose the next prime minister.

Following Sanae Takaichi’s election as LDP leader, the LDP and the smaller Komeito party, which had been in place for 26 years, fell apart earlier this month.

The LDP has remained in power in Japanese politics since the 1950s, but over the past two years it has lost control of both legislative chambers due to failing to address a number of issues, including a significant corruption scandal and Japan’s rising cost-of-living crisis.

If it can’t find a new opposition party, the LDP is now in danger of completely losing power.

According to some reports from Japanese media outlets, Takaichi and the LDP had reached a deal with the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin) to form a coalition that would ensure his election as prime minister. The two parties have yet to confirm the partnership’s details, but it is still undetermined.

What makes Sanae Takaichi so controversial?

Takaichi, 64, is a member of the LDP’s conservative faction and former protege of late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

After he resigned in September, Shigeru Ishiba, the LDP’s leader, was replaced by her. To address Japan’s ongoing economic issues, Takaichi used a fiscal expansion strategy.

Takaichi also has a reputation as a hawk for international relations who wants to strengthen Japan’s military, and she supports same-sex unions in her own right.

LDP and Komeito engaged in policy discussions after winning the LDP’s leadership election on October 4. According to Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer at Japan’s Kanda University of International Studies, Takaichi and Komeito collided when Takaichi failed to address Komeito’s concerns about corporate donations.

The disagreement comes after a recent LDP scandal that revealed party members had diverted more than 600 million yen (approximately $4 million) from a slush fund.

Tatakaichi told Al Jazeera, “They wanted more serious regulations regarding funding, especially corporate donations, and they didn’t give them what they thought they could give a serious response to their concerns about corruption scandals.”

Can Takaichi still lead the cabinet?

Although experts predict horse-trading will be necessary, Takaichi still has a chance to become Japan’s first female prime minister.

In the lower house of the Diet, Takaichi needs at least 233 seats to win a majority, while the LDP has 196. She could do this by negotiating with the Japan Innovation Party, one of Japan’s other opposition parties.

In contrast, if opposition parties collaborated, a new government might be formed, but experts like Kazuto Suzuki, a professor at the Graduate School of Public Policy at the University of Tokyo, contend that this would be difficult because of ideological differences.

The situation has significantly changed since 2009, the LDP’s most recent three-year power loss to a unified opposition.

It’s possible that Takaichi will lose if the opposition rallies for the unify candidate, but it’s more likely that Takaichi will win [in a run-off vote] instead of the majority, Suzuki said.

He continued, “She is based on a very small minority, even if Takaichi wins.” Takaichi and the LDP will have to put together some very difficult policies.

Who could challenge Takaichi to lead the industry?

Yuichiro Tamaki, 56, the leader of the conservative Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), is likely Takaichi’s most likely rival, according to experts.

The party currently holds 27 seats, but it could acquiesce if it joined the center-left Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), which currently holds 148 seats, and the Japan Innovation Party, which currently holds 35.

Due to ideological differences over Japan’s military’s future and its foreign policy, the DPFP and the CDP once merged in a party.

According to Stephen Nagy, a professor of politics and international studies at Japan’s International Christian University, the DPP and the Japan Innovation Party have a disagreement over deregulation and economic reform.

There are a lot of contradictory viewpoints that make it difficult for them to form a coalition, Nagy said.

He predicted that the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party will form a coalition in a more likely scenario. They have differing viewpoints on significant policy issues, including those involving immigration, China, Taiwan, and the imperial family’s future.

What does the LDP and Japan stand to gain from this?

Takaichi will likely remain in power for the time being, according to experts, but the LDP will likely be much weaker than many of her predecessors.

There are external factors like the US relationship and [US President Donald] Trump’s unpredictability, as well as internal factors like the direction of the economy and whether she will make decisions about the Yasukuni shrine, Nagy said, referring to the shrine to Japan’s war dead that includes war criminals. “The bigger question is, whether she will survive more than a year.

Takaichi will also need to work with other parties in Japan, including by negotiating or easing her position on more contentious issues.

If the opposition parties can regain their support from voters, Hall of Kanda University predicted that this could be a turning point for Japanese politics.

There are several centre-right parties, a far-right party, and a few smaller left-wing parties, the situation is. He told Al Jazeera, “It simply isn’t the math for one party to form a stable coalition with a partner who supports it on the big issues.”

Source: Aljazeera