Kyiv’s European and regional allies have begun to work out commitments to a peacekeeping force that would enter Ukraine after a three and a half year-old ceasefire is reached following their summit with US President Donald Trump in the White House on August 18.
By the end of the week, they intend to collect those pledges.
Russia is also putting forth additional sanctions, according to Europe.
However, neither country’s position is shared on either issue.
What should you be aware of:
What promises have nations made?
Estonia has so far indicated that it will contribute at least one military unit to the peacekeeping force, and Lithuania has previously stated that it will send an unnamed number of troops.
Romania declared that it would not send troops, but instead would set up F-35 airstrikes to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian ambassador to Ankara, Turkey is considering sending troops to demine the Black Sea.
The German Armed Forces Association’s head, Colonel Andre Wuestner, told the Reuters news agency that at least 10,000 troops would be required for an extended period.
A command post in Ukraine won’t be enough, according to Wuestner, adding that there will need to be a few generals and smaller military units.
Trump’s participation in such a force was a top priority for the Europeans at the White House meeting.
Trump had stated on August 18 that the US would participate, but not with troops.
The US recently told their European counterparts that the country would contribute “strategic enablers,” such as intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, command and control, and air defense assets, according to The Financial Times last month.
Is it feasible to establish a peacekeeping force and make a ceasefire plan?
It is entirely theatrical,” he said. According to Keir Giles, an expert on Eurasia at Chatham House, every European leader, including [Ukrainian President] Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has to find a way to keep Trump on his side. They did it without losing sight of reality, though.
According to Giles, a ceasefire is “entirely unachievable because]Russian President Vladimir Putin is obviously not interested in ending the fighting,” but it is also undesirable.
Before Trump took office, he said, “Everyone is aware that a ceasefire was one of the worst-case scenarios possible outcomes.”
Ukraine and its allies in Europe have repeatedly criticized a truce as a chance for Putin to reorganize his forces before starting an offensive with renewed vigor. However, in February, Trump declared a ceasefire as his top priority.
They still give lip service to these ridiculous ideas because they need to humor Trump and fit in with the fantasy world that drives the Trump world, according to Giles.
Trump and Europe: Will they cooperate?
Europe and Ukraine have been exerting great pressure on Trump’s direction since August 18.
Zelenskyy and Mark Rutte, the NATO’s chief executive, met in Kyiv on August 22 to discuss the need for “Article 5-like guarantees” operating under a blueprint that includes “a crystal-clear architecture of which countries assist us on the ground, which are responsible for the security of our skies, and which guarantee security at sea.”
The collective defense clause in NATO’s Article 5 states that an attack on one NATO member is treated as an attack on everyone.
Would Trump consent to “Article 5-like guarantees,” which create an automatic defense mechanism that would cause NATO forces to conflict with Russia?
Giles remarked, “Trump doesn’t always seem to be saying anything that makes sense,” and it’s incredibly vague and unclear whether he means what he says.
With Trump, you can never be certain. Political scientist Theodoros Tsikas reaffirmed that Trump is “changeable,” but that political reality prevents him from getting too far into Putin’s camp.
He wants to end the Ukrainian conflict first so that he can pursue an energy and mineral wealth economic partnership with Russia.
In a summit between Trump and Putin in Alaska on August 15, Reuters reported late last month that Russia and the US discussed business deals that were related to the issue of Ukraine’s disposition.
According to five sources, “These deals were put forward as incentives to encourage the Kremlin to agree to terms with the Ukrainian people and to ease sanctions against Russia.”
ExxonMobil re-joined a joint venture with Gazprom, Russian gas liquefaction equipment was purchased by Moscow, US equipment for gas liquefaction, and Russian ice-breakers were also purchased by the US.
Second, according to Tsikas, Trump “wants to free up US troops in Europe to recommit them to Asia.”
He can’t allow Ukraine to fall into his hands because it will cost him a lot of money in the US, much like Joe Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, he says in this pirouette. Trump has limitations, too. The winner’s profile is the one he sells. That image crumbles if he suffers a significant defeat, he told Al Jazeera.
Trump is willing to provide security for Europe because of these reasons, Tsikas said.
Trump: Is there a deal with Ukraine?
According to Trump’s approach to Ukraine since taking office, this assistance would not be free.
According to The Financial Times, Ukraine has offered to purchase $100 billion worth of US weapons in exchange for US security guarantees. This is backed by Europe, which has already agreed to purchase $800 billion ($820 billion) worth of US weapons for itself.
Will these extraordinary sums ever be used? Through the NATO program PURL (Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List), Zelenskyy claims Ukraine needs US weapons worth $1 billion every month.
Through PURL, European nations have pledged to pay $ 1.5 billion for US weapons purchases for Ukraine. All of this is a far cry from the funds Trump demands, which raises the question of whether they will ever be put into action.
Russia’s position is unknown.
Once Putin and Zelenskyy reached a ceasefire, a peacekeeping force would only be put in place.
Despite Zelenskyy’s readiness, Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov has twice confirmed that the meeting was postponed in recent days.
On August 21, he informed his Indian counterpart that a meeting would take place when the proposals were “well developed.”
Lavrov added that “no meeting is being planned,” but that “Putin is prepared to meet with Zelenskyy when the summit’s agenda is ready.” This schedule is insufficiently prepared.
Lavrov demanded that Zelenskyy adhere to the positions that Putin and Trump allegedly agreed to at the meeting in Alaska.
Zelenskyy said “no to everything,” and it was very clear to everyone that there are several principles that Washington thinks must be accepted, including no NATO membership.
Trump’s positions have been pushed closer to home by Russia and Europe. Putin tried to deter Trump from backing sanctions, which Europe supports, by persuading him that a ceasefire was not required for peace talks.
In a Tuesday evening address to Ukrainians, Zelenskyy said, “Russia’s only signals indicate that it intends to continue avoiding actual negotiations.” Strong sanctions, strong tariffs, and real pressure alone can change this.
Trump reiterated a two-week self-imposed deadline on August 22 before approving sanctions against Russia. In a press conference at the Oval Office, he said, “I believe we will know where I’m going in two weeks.”
Sean Hannity on Fox received a first report from Trump regarding the deadline following his meeting with Putin in Alaska on August 15.
Trump is still wedged between Russia and Europe, and as a result, his predecessor, Biden, was a staunch European ally.
Leaders in Europe are more skeptical of Russia’s intentions because they only see it in terms of politics and security.
Source: Aljazeera
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