Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon could derail Hezbollah disarmament

Lebanon’s Beirut attacks are the latest of Israel’s attacks on its northern neighbor.

Despite a November 2024 ceasefire that the United States had agreed to, Israel has consistently bombed Lebanon and carried out drone strikes. More than 10,000 ceasefire violations by Israelis have been documented by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), including 2,500 ground violations and 7,500 airspace violations.

Despite agreeing to withdraw all of its forces, the Israeli military continues to occupy five locations in Lebanon.

Before bombing the locations, Israel forced residents to leave four villages in the south of Lebanon on Monday and the eastern region of the country, Bekaa Valley, in eastern Lebanon. Hezbollah and Hamas, according to the Israeli military, are both known for their involvement in the attacks.

Then, on Tuesday, Israel launched additional attacks in southern Lebanon, claiming to be targeting Hezbollah members.

Hezbollah’s strength

In connection with its conflict with Hezbollah, Israel has killed more than 4, 000 people in Lebanon since October 2023.

Between September and November of this year, more than 1.2 million people were forced to flee as a result of Israel’s evacuation warnings.

According to the World Bank, Israel left Lebanon with reconstruction and recovery needs of about $11 billion.

Hezbollah’s influence in the nation was severely diminished by the war, too. Hassan Nasrallah, a long-time leader of the country, was among the members who died as a result of the intensification. The group is being pressured to give up the weapons that have long been its “resistance” group in the wake of the war.

The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) were to be given the go-ahead in August 2025 when the government approved a plan to disarm Hezbollah. In addition to bolstering the Lebanese state, the decision was popular domestically outside of Hezbollah’s support base as a result of growing pressure from the US and Israel.

Hezbollah has for its part consistently refrained from requesting devastation. Israel, according to the group, has not adhered to the ceasefire’s terms.

Naim Qassem, Nasrallah’s successor, said in a speech on January 3, 2026, that you are not working in Lebanon’s interests but rather in the interests of what Israel wants. “To demand exclusive arms control while Israel is committing aggression and the United States is imposing its will on Lebanon.

We call for the Lebanese Army to be able to function as a security force for the nation against enemies, in addition to other duties it performs in the face of spies, drug and theft gangs, and other tyrannies.

Lebanon’s internal conflict

Despite this, Hezbollah has largely been disarmed south of the Litani River, according to Lebanon’s Army and government officials. The only places Lebanoni military officials were unable to use were close to the five locations that were under Israeli occupation, according to Lebanoni military officials.

The end of 2025 was the deadline to end all weapons below the Litani. The Litani River, which runs along southern Lebanon and is about 30 kilometers (19 miles) from the Israeli border, is the subject of Lebanon’s cabinet’s scheduled meeting on Thursday for “phase two” of the disarmament plan. It would also include the disarmament of Palestinian militias along with the Awali River, which runs just north of Sidon. Between the Litani and Awali, there are roughly 40 kilometers (25 miles) of territory.

Nawaf Salam, the prime minister of Lebanon, stated on social media that his administration was concentrating on putting an end to Israeli attacks, removing Israeli troops from the five southern Lebanon locations, and releasing Lebanese detainees held by Israel.

He wrote, “We commit to carry on the reform and the expansion of state control” together.

Salam and others in the Lebanese government acknowledge that the LAF are unable to directly confront Israel. They have also made an appeal to international allies and regional allies.

Imad Salamey, a political scientist at Lebanese American University, stated on Al Jazeera that “appealing to the international community is a necessary but limited strategy.”

It is unlikely on its own to stop attacks unless paired with verified, objective progress on disarmament and believable security guarantees, even though diplomatic engagement can help restrain the scale of Israeli operations and preserve space for negotiations. International actors typically place greater pressure on Lebanon to deliver results on the ground than on Israel to follow restraint, which weakens the effectiveness of this strategy unless Lebanon can secure a binding agreement that links its implementation to measurable Israeli de-escalation.

Without many cards to play, the Lebanese government is in a difficult position. The Lebanese Army’s operations south of the Litani have largely been unaffected by Hezbollah. However, according to analysts, the organization won’t be as accommodating in the future if Israeli attacks continue.

Hezbollah must first stop attacking Lebanon and releasing prisoners, according to Qassem Kassir, a Lebanese political analyst close to the organization, and the Lebanese state must begin rebuilding the damage done by Israel both during and since the war, according to Kassir.

He said, “Only then can the future of weapons be discussed.”

Kassir warned that tensions will increase if those issues are not addressed before the second phase of the disarmament plan is put into effect.

Otherwise, we’ll have to fight back.

Hezbollah was beaten but unpunished.

Meanwhile, the US and Israel are under increasing pressure, and Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm.

Hezbollah and its supporters can legitimately argue that disarmament outside the south makes them more vulnerable as long as Israeli strikes continue, according to Salamey.

Israel’s strikes are used as strategic messaging in an effort to undermine Lebanon’s claim that it has reestablished state control and finished disarmament south of the Litani.

Israel has also vowed to refute UNIFIL’s claims that Hezbollah is relocating to the south, and it has also claimed that the Lebanese Army is moving too slowly in its disarmament effort.

The consequences could be severe, according to Salamey, “if Israel continues to attack as the LAF moves toward phase two of disarmament north of the Litani River.” Israel may use any disruption or delay as justification for expanding its target group, which will increase instability and increase the chance of a new conflict when Lebanon is least able to absorb it.

Analysts think Hezbollah might feel threatened and act violently if the Lebanese Army continues to attack targets in Lebanon.

And despite the claims that Israel’s war against Lebanon in 2024 left Hezbollah severely damaged, international diplomats and analysts still think the organization is strong enough to face any domestic difficulties.

According to Salamey, “phase two runs the risk of shifting from a technical security measure to a more global political conflict over sequencing, guarantees, and internal stability in Lebanon.”

Source: Aljazeera