US President Donald Trump has claimed that a “migrant invasion” has taken over Los Angeles, in a bid to justify migrant arrests during Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids since June 6.
Others in his administration have echoed that rationale, after the raids triggered ongoing protests and Trump called the National Guard and Marines into the city to quell unrest, clashing with California Governor Gavin Newsom.
But how accurate are these claims of an invasion by undocumented migrants?
What did Trump say?
“A once great American City, Los Angeles, has been invaded and occupied by Illegal Aliens and Criminals,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on June 8. Trump added that he is ordering his administration officials to “take all such action necessary to liberate Los Angeles from the Migrant Invasion, and put an end to these Migrant riots”.
Three days later, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller wrote in an X post: “America was invaded by illegal aliens. Americans voted to end the invasion. Democrat rioters are now waging violent insurrection to overturn the election result and continue the invasion.”
America was invaded by illegal aliens.
Americans voted to end the invasion.
Democrat rioters are now waging violent insurrection to overturn the election result and continue the invasion.
Miller shared an image from the Los Angeles riots, showing a rioter waving a Mexican flag. Miller wrote “According to Governor Newsom, this is what the Founders were fighting for”.
According to Governor Newsom, this is what the Founders were fighting for: https://t.co/ow1c1OpOkY pic.twitter.com/udE6D0QPtk
Have undocumented migrants in California increased?
No. In fact, the opposite is true.
Data from the US Office of Homeland Security Statistics shows that the number of undocumented migrants has fallen significantly since 2010.
In 2010, the population of undocumented immigrants in California was estimated to be 2.9 million. The population has dropped almost every year since then, and as of 2022, it was estimated to be 2.6 million.
That trend is also pronounced among Mexican undocumented migrants, a principal target of the ongoing ICE raids.
In recent years, a number of undocumented migrants from Mexico have also left the US to return to Mexico, research from the Center for Migration Studies of New York shows, based on US Census data.
Between 2010 and 2018, 2.6 million Mexican nationals left the US undocumented population. While many were deported, 45 percent of people left voluntarily. In California, the number of undocumented migrants from Mexico declined by 605,000 between 2010 and 2018.
Why are many Mexican undocumented migrants leaving the US?
While the Trump administration has been trying to encourage undocumented migrants to self-deport – even offering a $1000 cash award – the trend of Mexicans leaving the US to return to their home country long predates not just his current term, but even his first term.
The voluntary return of Mexican immigrants began after the Great Recession, which was a period of significant economic downturn and financial crisis between 2007 and 2009, Anne Pebley, social demographer and professor of community health sciences at UCLA, found while researching immigration from Mexico and Central America. Pebley co-authored a research article with these findings, published in February 2023, alongside academics across the US.
This voluntary return of Mexican migrants back then was due to there being better financial opportunities in Mexico. For the same reason, the arrival of undocumented migrants coming into the US also declined in the wake of the recession, Pebley was quoted as saying in a news release published on the UCLA website.
Pebley added that since the Great Recession, greater economic stability in Mexico combined with worsening employment opportunities in the US seem to be the main motivating factor behind the voluntary return of Mexican migrants, albeit increasing anti-immigrant notions and laws over the last two decades may have contributed to their continued return.
Are crime rates in California increasing?
No. In fact, violent crime in the state dropped by 4.6 percent while property crime dropped by 8.5 percent in the state in 2024, compared with 2023, according to an analysis of Real Time Crime Index data by the Public Policy Institute of California.
The data showed that in California, robberies, aggravated assaults, vehicle theft, burglary and larceny have decreased.
Do migrants commit more crimes?
Multiple studies have shown that migrants are consistently less likely to be imprisoned than people born in the US. One such research paper, published in July 2023, analysed 150 years of US Census data and used imprisonment rates as a proxy for crime.
The economists found that in more recent years, migrants are 60 percent less likely to be jailed than citizens born in the US.
What do Californians think about migrants?
Since the 1990s, the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) has carried out annual surveys of state residents on their perceptions of whether migrants bring benefits to the state – or whether they are a burden.
The last survey was carried out by the PPIC in February 2024. Based on this, 60 percent of the state residents believed that migrants were a benefit to the state.
However, the percentage of Californians who hold a favourable view about migrants has fallen in recent years. According to the survey PPIC carried out in 2023, 66 percent of Californians believed migrants were a benefit. In 2021, 78 percent of Californians held this view.
What is the latest on the LA protests?
On Tuesday evening, the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) imposed a curfew in the city’s downtown and announced that they would carry out “mass arrests” if people gathered in the designated curfew area. The curfew lasted until 6am (13:00 GMT) on Wednesday.
Trump, meanwhile, claimed he would “liberate” Los Angeles from “animals” and “a foreign enemy” – without specifying what he meant. A day earlier, the Trump administration deployed 700 Marines in LA and doubled the number of National Guard soldiers in the city to 4,000.
The protests continue to deepen the rift between the Republican Trump administration and the Democratic state government. In an address on Tuesday, Governor Newsom called Trump’s use of military power a “brazen abuse of power”.
“He doubled down on his dangerous National Guard deployment by fanning the flames even harder, and the president – he did it on purpose,” said Newsom.
On Monday, the California governor announced that he had filed a lawsuit against Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth “to end the illegal takeover” of the National Guard.
Source: Aljazeera
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