Is Trump helping other world leaders gain popularity back home?

Since his inauguration on January 20th, US President Donald Trump has engaged in diplomatic tussles with leaders around the world, starting with tariffs and the Ukraine war.

However, while Trump has framed his combative approach as putting “America first”, many of these leaders have benefitted politically, too.

According to data, leaders who appear to be negotiating with Trump without making any concessions are increasing in polls and ratings. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is enjoying the highest approval rating of any Mexican head of state since 1985. The Conservative Party, which has been in the lead in polls ahead of national elections, has now closed a significant gap with Canada’s ruling Liberal Party. And they are not the only ones.

But how much do these polls increase as a result of how these leaders handle Trump? Are other factors at play? What analysts believe may be happening are presented in the following table.

Canada and Justin Trudeau

Justin Trudeau, the country’s prime minister since 2015, resigned on March 9 to replace economist Mark Carney, who also debuted as the country’s prime minister on Friday.

Trudeau had been under mounting pressure to resign for months before he finally quit, amid rising costs of living, increasing intraparty fights, resignations from his cabinet and questions about his immigration policies.

After Trump’s election, that pressure only increased as more and more tariffs were threatened against Canada. Trudeau’s longtime deputy and finance minister Chrystia Freeland resigned in mid-December 2024 amid disagreements over how to deal with Trump.

Trump repeatedly said he wanted Canada to be the 51st state of the US and made fun of the Canadian prime minister as “governor,” but Trudeau didn’t initially counteract with a string of barbs. Instead, as Trump accused Canada of allowing fentanyl to enter the US through their border, Trudeau appointed a “fentanyl czar” to tackle the issue.

However, as Trump finally threatened to halt the majority of Canadian exports to the US early in March after deferring tariffs for a month, Trudeau took a more assertive position in the press.

“Canadians are reasonable, and we are polite. However, we won’t back down in a fight. Not when our country and the wellbeing of everyone in it is at stake”, Trudeau said on March 4.

What are the results of federal polls in Canada?

Several polls show that while Conservatives under their leader, Pierre Poilievre, were consistently leading by a considerable margin throughout 2024, the Liberal Party jumped up in the polls starting from February 2025 and significantly closed the gap.

Early in January, the Conservatives were ahead by 24 percentage points over the Liberals, according to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) polls’ averages. Now that gap has shrunk to just 5.5 percentage points as of March 17, with the Conservatives at 38.9 percent support, and Liberals at 33.4 percent.

It is the first time I’ve ever seen this in Canadian polling history, at least in this century. To come back from a 25-point deficit is very unheard of, especially for a government that’s been in power for almost a decade”, Philippe J Fournier, analyst and creator of electoral projection model and website 338Canada, told Al Jazeera.

What justifies this, exactly?

The Liberals closing such a major gap in the polls can be explained by a combination of factors, experts say.

Darrell Bricker, the head of public affairs at research agency Ipsos, stated that “Justin Trudeau’s departure, the arrival of Mark Carney, the tariff attacks by Donald Trump, and discomfort with Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre.”

Fournier of 338Canada explained that many Canadian parliamentarians were pressuring Trudeau to step down for months. The tension subsided when Trudeau finally made his resignation announcement in early January. Then, Trump got inaugurated and right away, started his threat of tariffs.

More than just tariffs, according to Fournier, who cited Trump’s demands for Canada to join the US.

Fournier also argued that Poilievre’s approach to politics – and similarities some voters have noted with Trump’s style – could be working against him.

Fournier claimed that Poilievre “uses the same style, the same language, and the same tactics as Trump.” With Trump threatening Canada, many swing voters are looking towards the conservative leader and thinking ‘ Is that the direction we want this country to be in? ‘

He added that voters who typically support other parties are also the ones who are switching sides, not just Conservative voters. “Carney seems to be able to reach people from across the spectrum”, he said. &nbsp ,

Mexico and Claudia Sheinbaum

Sheinbaum assumed the office of Mexico’s first female president on October 1, 2024, succeeding Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. As a response to Trump’s tariff threats, Sheinbaum deployed 10, 000 National Guard troops to the US-Mexico border to help curb unregulated immigration.

In response to negotiations with Sheinbaum and Trudeau, Trump had initially ordered that all imports from Mexico and Canada be subject to 25% tariffs.

Days before the tariffs were to be finally imposed, Trump announced further delays on several products from Mexico, and some from Canada, until April 2. These goods fell under the free-trade agreement US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA). Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that he had made this decision after speaking with Sheinbaum and “out of respect” for her.

What are the Sheinbaum approval ratings?

Data from different pollsters in Mexico shows that Sheinbaum has enjoyed high approval ratings since her inauguration. In the middle of February, according to the Buendia y Marquez polls, 80% of respondents voted for their president.

Polls by Mexican national daily newspaper El Financiero show that 85 percent of respondents approved of Sheinbaum in February. According to El Fiannciero, this is the highest level of approval achieved in the nation in the previous 30 years. Sheinbaum’s approval ratings were 70 percent in October and she has steadily climbed since.

According to El Financiero’s February data, Mexicans have varying opinions about Sheinbaum’s handling of Trump. While 60 percent of respondents said that they believed she was doing a good or very good job at handling Trump’s deportations, 55 percent of respondents approved Sheinbaum’s handling of tariffs.

However, 47% of respondents said they thought the Sheinbaum government’s relationship with Trump’s administration was bad or very bad, while 38% said they thought it was good or very good.

In other words, the polls suggest that Mexicans believe the relationship is strained – but they’re backing Sheinbaum to handle it well.

What justifies this, exactly?

Sheinbaum, a senior analyst on Latin America and the Caribbean for independent non-profit Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), inherited her approval rating from her predecessor, Lopez Obrador, according to Sheinbaum.

Lopez Obrador assumed office in December 2018, and by February 2019, had an approval rating of 83 percent. Sheinbaum was chosen as his handpicked successor and belongs to his Morena party.

“Despite the pandemic, economic stagnation and security challenges, Lopez Obrador remained popular throughout his six-year term, earning him the nickname ‘ the Teflon president'”, Carin Zissis, a fellow at the Mexico Institute of the Wilson Center in Washington said. Near the end of his term in September 2024, Lopez Obrador received a rating of about 74%.

Consistently high approval ratings for the Morena party leaders have been attributed to their social welfare policies, started by Lopez Obrador and continued by Sheinbaum. This includes the Sembrando Vida initiative, which aims to end poverty and promote afforestation.

But Zissis told Al Jazeera that Sheinbaum’s handling of the relationship with the Trump administration was also “a contributing factor” to her high approval ratings.

Mexicans have rallied around their leader and nation because of Washington’s threat of tariffs and military action, Zissis said.

“While other leaders have responded quickly to tariff threats, taking reciprocal measures, she has exercised a patient approach that, given the Trump administration’s decision to delay tariffs, appears to have proven effective and resulted in global and domestic accolades for the country’s first woman president”.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukraine

Since February, Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have found themselves embroiled in tense interactions. Trump called Zelenskyy a “dictator without elections,” claiming that his approval rating was 4%, in a social media post last month. Zelenskyy was elected as Ukrainian president in 2019.

Zelenskyy visited the White House on February 28th, bringing the tensions to a head. During a meeting in the Oval Office, Trump and his Vice President JD Vance publicly accused Zelenskyy of not being thankful enough for US support to Ukraine. Trump abruptly ended sharing of intelligence with Ukraine and stopped providing military aid there.

Zelenskyy maintained a conciliatory tone towards Trump, expressing gratitude for US support and in subsequent days emphasising that he was ready for peace negotiations. A 30-day ceasefire agreement between the US and Ukraine has since been reached, but Russia has not yet accepted it. The US has restored the military aid and intelligence that it had stalled.

What are the figures indicating?

A survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) showed that 67 percent of respondents trusted Zelenskyy in March, after his public clash with Trump. Since February, when 57% of respondents said they trusted him, this has increased by 10 points.

Why is this happening?

In a statement released by Reuters on March 7, Anton Hrushetskyi, the executive director of KIIS, said that “Ukrainians perceive the rhetoric of the new US administration as an attack on all Ukrainians.”

Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron

Representatives from the US and Russia met in Saudi Arabia in February to talk about the end of the Ukrainian conflict, with only leaders from the EU and Ukraine. This came shortly after Trump said that the US would not provide security guarantees to Ukraine and said that Europe needs to step up in terms of this.

Both leaders are in the country visiting Trump and Macron, who are also holding an emergency summit with other European leaders, with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron speaking. Starmer then held another meeting with European allies, invited Zelenskky to it, and announced a&nbsp, “coalition of the willing” that would devise a peace plan to present to the US. He has since suggested that any peace agreement with Russia might include security guarantees for Ukraine.

What are the figures indicating?

Starmer, who was experiencing a slump in approval back home less than a year after taking office, has seen his approval ratings climb in the past month. His popularity, according to YouGov, has increased from 22 percent to 27 percent since he took office in early July.

Macron’s approval ratings also rose from 17 percent in February to 27 percent in March, according to Ipsos.

Why is this happening?

According to an analyst, Starmer’s approval ratings have increased as a result of his ability to navigate challenging circumstances.

“He is good at facing the wind when there is bad news and hard choices to confront”, John Curtice, a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde told Al Jazeera.

When asked whether Starmer’s rising approval rating is related to his dealings with Trump, Curtice, a senior fellow at the National Centre for Social Research, responded that “the timing suggests it does.” Nothing has happened on the domestic front to account for it”.

Source: Aljazeera