In a brief military escalation between the neighbors, Pakistan and Iran launched missiles into each other’s territory in Islamabad, Pakistan.
Pakistan was quick to condemn the Israeli action after Israel launched strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and killed several Iranian generals and nuclear scientists 17 months later.
The Israeli strikes were “blatant provocations,” according to Islamabad, which described them as being in violation of Iran’s territorial sovereignty.
In a statement released on June 13, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said, “The international community and the United Nations bear responsibility to uphold international law, stop this aggression immediately, and hold the aggressor accountable for its actions.”
The deepening conflict is stoking fears in Islamabad as Iranian air attacks and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes reach their sixth day, say analysts, because of its complicated ties to Tehran and the Israeli military’s growing concern about the possibility of Israeli military airstrikes extending close to the Pakistani border.
The Israeli-Iran conflict’s ongoing humanitarian crisis is having a significant impact on people. More than a thousand people have been injured in Israel’s attacks on Iran, which has already resulted in more than 220 fatalities. Iran has launched hundreds of missiles into Israeli territory in retaliation, causing more than 20 people to die and suffer significant property damage.
Pakistan, which has a 905 km (562 miles) border with Iran via its western province of Balochistan, has also suspended five border crossings in Balochistan as of June 15.
In recent days, more than 500 Pakistanis have come back from Iran, primarily students and pilgrims.
“On Monday, 45 students from various Iranian institutions came back to Pakistan to pursue degrees. Nearly 500 pilgrims also crossed the Taftan border crossing to return, according to Naeem Ahmed, the Taftan assistant commissioner.
Taftan, a border town close to Iran, is a town in the Chaghi district of Balochistan, which is known for its hills, where Pakistan conducted its nuclear tests in 1998, and for its famous Reko Diq and Saindak mines, both of which are known for their gold and copper deposits.
According to experts, Pakistan’s concern about security in Balochistan, which is influenced by its ties to Iran, is at the heart of the effort to effectively seal the border.
a complex past
Both Pakistan and Iran have accused one another of hosting armed organizations that carry out attacks on their territory across borders.
The most recent escalation occurred in January 2024 when Iran launched missiles at the separatist group Jaish al-Adl in Pakistan’s Balochistan province.
Within 24 hours, Pakistan responded by striking what it claimed were separatist hideouts in Iranian territory.
After that brief escalation, the neighbors were reconciled, and Iran vehemently stayed out of the conflict with Pakistan during its brief military conflict in May.
Ishaq Dar, the minister of foreign affairs, addressed Parliament on Monday, praising Pakistan’s diplomatic relations with Iran and suggesting that Islamabad was ready to help put an end to Israel’s military hostilities.
According to Dar, “Iran’s foreign minister [Abbas Araghchi] stated to me that they are prepared to return to the table if Israel does not launch another attack.” There is still time to stop Israel and bring Iran back to talks, we have said to other nations.
Other countries should do more to encourage a ceasefire, according to Interior Minister Talal Chaudhry, according to Chaudhry.
“We think we are playing our part, but the world must also fulfill its obligations,” we say. They were devastated by wars in Syria, Libya, and Iraq. It even contributed to the rise of ISIL [ISIS]. He continued, “We hope this doesn’t happen again.”
Any Pakistani effort to diplomatically promote peace would be helped, according to Fahd Humayun, assistant professor of political science at Tufts University and visiting research scholar at Stanford, because, at least in the United States, President Donald Trump’s administration is formally advocating for negotiations rather than war.
Despite all the public slurs, Pakistan would be cautious about ingraining itself too heavily into the conflict, according to Umer Karim, a researcher studying the Middle East at the University of Birmingham.
Pakistan “absolutely wants this conflict to end as soon as possible,” he said, “I doubt it has the capacity or the will to do so.”
Security and Balochistan
The potential fallout in Balochistan, a resource-rich but restive province, is Pakistan’s greatest concern, according to observers. Balochistan, which has a population of about 15 million people, is Pakistan’s largest province by area but the smallest by population. It is rich in oil, gas, coal, gold, and copper.
At least five rebellion movements have taken place in Balochistan since 1947, with the most recent one beginning in the early 2000s. Rebel organizations have fought for more local resources or complete independence, which has sparked decades of military reprisals.
The province also houses the strategically important Gwadar port, which connects western China to the Arabian Sea and is located close to the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Baloch nationalists accuse the government of squandering resources while ignoring local development, which contributes to growing separatist and secessionist sentiments. In Pakistan, secessionist organizations on both sides of the border have been waging a rebellion in support of independence, particularly the BLA and BLA.
A major concern for Pakistan is that members of armed groups like BLA and BLF, many of whom reside close to Iran, might attempt to enter the country by crossing the obscene boundaries of the two nations, according to Abdul Basit, a research fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
In an effort to control the flow, Pakistan had to close the crossing. Although it’s still to be seen whether they will be successful, at least this is their goal.
Concerns about a redux in Afghanistan
Numerous Afghan refugees have sought refuge in Pakistan since the Soviets’ invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. After the Taliban’s occupation of Kabul in August 2021, there was the most recent mass influx. Nearly 4 million Afghans were living in the nation at their peak, or 4 million.
However, Pakistan launched a campaign to return refugees to Afghanistan in 2023. Nearly a million people have been expelled so far, according to government estimates. As a major justification for its decision, Pakistan has cited rising instances of armed violence in the nation as evidence of its country’s continued reliance on organizations it claims find refuge in Afghanistan. The Taliban reject the suggestion that Afghan-held anti-Pakistani armed groups could find refuge there.
According to Basit, Pakistan would likely prefer to prevent future conflicts involving Afghan refugees.
It is possible that Pakistan’s decision to close the border was influenced by this fact, he said, adding that with Iran’s long border and a history of strong ties between people on both sides.
Angry about the Israelis’ aerial superiority
Experts predict that Pakistan is likely to be worried about the possibility of a refugee influx in addition to the armed groups mentioned above.
Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, claims that his air force controls Tehran’s skies. Pakistan, which does not recognize Israel and views it as a sworn enemy, will not want Israeli influence to expand and sway toward the Iran-Pakistan border as Israel and Iran continue to strike each other’s territory.
As a result of Karim, a professor at the University of Birmingham, Pakistan is opposed to Israel achieving complete air superiority and control of Iranian airspace. This would threaten Pakistan’s western flank’s current level of security, Karim, the scholar, told Al Jazeera.
A new chapter in the history
Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud, a security analyst based in Islamabad, noted that Pakistan has historically sided with the US in regional conflicts, including those in Afghanistan, but may not do so this time.
Pakistan, a country with a majority of Sunnis, still has a sizable Shia population, accounting for more than 15% of its 250 million people.
Source: Aljazeera
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