‘Huge week’ for future of Scottish clubs in Europe

Four of Scotland’s five European representatives are still standing as we prepare for this week’s play-off rounds, with three guaranteed league phase action across Uefa’s competitions.

However, the bigger picture is not quite so rosy, with much harder qualification routes on the horizon unless significant strides are made in this campaign.

Celtic and Rangers are bidding for places in the Champions League, against Kairat and Club Brugge respectively, while Aberdeen take on FCSB of Bucharest in the Europa League.

The losers of those ties drop to the next tournament, but there is no such safety net for Hibernian, who take on Legia Warsaw for a Conference League spot.

“It’s a huge week,” Gavin Noon, who runs the X account Scotland’s Coefficient, told BBC Scotland.

“At the end of the season, Uefa will rank all the nations based on the amount of points collected over the last five years.

Switzerland and Austria are the countries immediately above Scotland in the Uefa club rankings.

Austria are 15th on the list, 2.8 points better off than Scotland.

It may not sound like much but Noon points out this is the “equivalent of winning seven more league phase matches”. Gulp!

And the Austrians have already stolen a march, with Dundee United knocked out of Conference League qualifying on penalties by Rapid Vienna.

“It’s quite a big gap,” said Noon. “It’s possible, but much more possible if Hibs make it as well.”

While Hibs were the first British team to play in Europe, way back in 1955, they have never reached group stage football in the modern era.

They will be underdogs against Poland’s biggest club but have shown up well against Midtjylland and Partizan Belgrade in previous rounds.

If Scotland cannot climb to 15th, the outlook is bleak.

“It’s quite a severe drop-off,” warns Noon.

It would mean representation dropping from five to four clubs in two years’ time.

In 2027-28, the Premiership champions would have three Champions League qualifiers instead of the current one.

The runners-up won’t even get a sniff of the Champions League or Europa League, faced with three Conference League qualifiers – along with the team finishing third.

The Scottish Cup winners would have four Europa League qualifying ties.

Falling out of the top 12 already means that this season’s Scottish Cup winners will enter the Europa League third qualifying round instead of the play-offs and will not be guaranteed group stage football.

By our clubs winning more games than their rivals from Austria and Switzerland…

Results are weighted equally across all competitions but there is a system of bonus points which heavily favours those in the Champions League.

Celtic and Rangers are joined by Sturm Graz and Basel in the play-offs to reach the top table.

As they strive to progress in the second tier tournament, Aberdeen have company from Young Boys of Bern.

Celtic certainly enjoyed their first taste of the new-look Champions League, winning three and drawing three of their eight games last term to finish 21st in the table before a narrow loss to Bayern Munich when the knockout matches started.

Rangers have excelled in the Europa League of late, reaching the quarter-finals last time.

Of course, the Ibrox side went all the way to the final in 2022, suffering an agonising penalty shoot-out loss.