How will US pause on intelligence sharing affect Ukraine?

Six days prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, former United States President Joe Biden declared he was “convinced” that Moscow had made the decision to invade Ukraine on February 18, 2022. Biden responded, “We have a significant intelligence capability,” when asked how he knew this.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the country’s government at the time, was unsure of Biden’s future plans and argued that a full-scale invasion was unlikely.

Ukraine was wrong, Biden was right.

The US has collaborated with Ukraine since the war started by using its extensive spying capabilities, helping Kyiv both preventively and strategically by plotting attacks against Russian forces, in addition to billions of dollars in sophisticated weaponry.

When US officials confirmed on Wednesday that President Donald Trump had mandated the suspension of intelligence sharing with Kyiv, that came to an end. Two days after the US stopped providing military aid to Ukraine, Trump and Zelenskyy’s relations deteriorated.

How much has the US provided intelligence to Ukraine during the conflict? How much will Ukraine suffer if there isn’t enough US intelligence? And will Europe intervene to support Ukraine?

What we currently know is as follows.

What transpired?

Washington has halted sharing intelligence with Ukraine, according to US officials. Unnamed US officials were quoted by multiple US media outlets who claimed Trump had stopped military aid to Kyiv.

In an interview with Fox Business on Wednesday, John Ratcliffe, the CIA director, confirmed the intelligence pause.

On Wednesday, the same day, US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz confirmed the pause to reporters. Waltz remarked, “We have taken a step back and are paused and reviewing every aspect of this relationship.” He continued, “good talks” have been having with Ukraine regarding the negotiations.

If Trump and Zelenskyy reach a compromise, according to US officials, the pause on sharing intelligence and military aid may be lifted.

Waltz predicted that the movement would start very soon.

Why did the US cut back on its ties to Ukraine?

Alan Fisher, a reporter from the White House, reported on Al Jazeera that the slashing of intelligence sharing was “just a tool to try to get Ukraine back on the table.”

Fisher explained that the US and the US discussed stopping military aid to Ukraine, which the Ukrainians contend would hurt their war efforts.

“It is obvious that the threat of those things has already worked. Therefore, it seems that any impact on Ukraine would be limiting in the least when the national security adviser says that peace talks may start soon.

What brought us here?

Following rising tensions between Trump and Zelenskyy over the past few weeks, Trump’s military pause and most recently the halt in intelligence sharing.

Trump’s change in US policy toward Ukraine has sparked direct discussions with Moscow regarding a solution. Ukraine and its allies in Europe were left out of the conversation after American and Russian officials met for talks hosted by Saudi Arabia in February.

In the days that followed, Zelenskyy and Trump engaged in verbal altercation, which cast doubt on his approval ratings. Trump responded by claiming that he was residing in a “disinformation space.”

At the White House’s Oval Office on February 28, Zelenskyy met Trump, US Vice President JD Vance, and Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State. Zelenskyy was accused by Trump and Vance of not being appreciative enough of the military support that Washington offers Kyiv. Trump had ended military assistance a day later, on Monday.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine was prepared to return to the table of negotiations on Tuesday, but his tone changed. In his X-post, he wrote, “We really value how much America has helped Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence.”

How far has the US provided intelligence to Ukraine?

The US provided significant intelligence to Ukraine even before the Russia-Ukraine conflict started in February 2022.

Although no specific details or precise information about how significant US intelligence sharing has been to Ukraine have been publicly disclosed, numerous reports, officials, and leaks highlight two crucial areas.

Ukrainian forces are able to prepare for incoming Russian strikes thanks to the intelligence, which is primarily a combination of satellite imagery and signals. It also aids in tracing Russian troop movements and bases’ positions, allowing Ukrainian forces to fire missiles, including long-range projectiles, at them. This includes conducting long-range strikes on Russian soil using Ukrainian allies’ HIMARS and ATACMS.

According to Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher at King’s College London’s defense studies department, “The United States can provide Ukraine with the coordinates or satellite imagery of where the Russian logistical centers are located,” the United States can use that information to destroy them.

To target hostile objectives like ammunition depots and logistical hubs, you need that information from the Ukrainian perspective.

There is more, though.

An underground bunker was constructed in its place in February 2024 following a New York Times investigation that revealed that a command center for the Ukrainian military had been destroyed following Russia’s full-scale invasion. Ukrainian soldiers monitor conversations between Russian forces and monitor Russian spy satellites in this bunker. According to the Times, the CIA provides some equipment and almost entirely funding for the base.

Additionally, the report noted that Ukraine has a number of CIA-supported spy bases, including 12 hideouts along the Russian border.

Further investigation revealed that the elite Ukrainian commando force, known as Unit 2245, was being trained by the CIA in 2016 and seized Russian drones and communications equipment. The CIA would then reverse-engineer these devices in order to decode Moscow’s encryption. Kyrylo Budanov, the country’s current head of military intelligence, was one of the 2245-trained officers.

Will Ukraine’s combative abilities be impacted by the intelligence pause?

It already has.

Charles Stratford, a reporter for Al Jazeera, claimed to have spoken with a Ukrainian commander who was stationed close to the front line while reporting from Ukraine.

According to Stratford, “he claimed that about 90% of the intelligence work that is done on that 1, 300km [808 miles] front line in the east and south of Ukraine was done by his unit and many others right the way along that 1, 300km]808 miles] front line,” He claimed that they had no assistance today and that the American system had indeed been disabled.

According to Stratford, Ukraine uses US intelligence for a variety of purposes, including its Patriot missile system, which is crucial to Kyiv’s ability to deflect incoming Russian ballistic missiles.

Can Europe assist in bridging Ukraine’s intelligence gimmick?

Partly.

Even though spy satellites from other European countries can provide some imagery, it’s unclear whether they are capable of providing the intelligence Ukraine needs.

Additionally, Finnish company ICEYE has two commercially successful spy satellites. The government of Germany and German weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall purchased one, while the other was provided by a nonprofit.

According to experts, it is unlikely that Ukraine or Europe will be able to bridge the gulf created by the US intelligence sharing pause despite these.

According to Miron, “Europe does not possess the intelligence that the US provides to Ukraine,” this cut will have an immediate impact on the battlefield. She continued, “the US has a monopoly on intelligence and military satellites.”

Elon Musk’s SpaceX-owned Starlink was activated in Ukraine in February 2022 after the invasion hampered internet access. According to Miron, Starlink is also used by the Ukrainian military for “communications, tactical reconnaissance, and the use of FPV [first-person view] drones.”

According to an anonymous source who was informed on the discussions, US negotiators told Kyiv on February 20 that they would shut down Starlink if Ukraine failed to reach a deal on crucial minerals. The US would be able to invest in Ukraine’s resources thanks to the deal on rare earth minerals.

Musk and Trump have a close relationship.

Source: Aljazeera