How Scotland can seal World Cup play-off by Sunday

World Cup qualifying: Scotland v Belarus

Venue: Hampden, Glasgow Date: Sunday, 12 October Time: 17:00 BST

Scotland could be guaranteed a World Cup play-off by the time we go to bed on Sunday. Or they could be clear in their qualifying group with two games to play.

OK, OK, we hear you telling us to slow things down – but it is a realistic proposition.

Why? Well, Scotland’s astonishing pickpocketing of Greece on Thursday means they welcome pointless Belarus to Hampden on Sunday knowing a win will give them 10 points from four qualifiers.

At the same time, the desperate Greeks will be in Denmark trying to salvage their own hopes.

Defeat in Glasgow cut their potential maximum points total to 12. They now travel to Copenhagen to face a side who swept them aside 3-0 in Athens in September.

If they lose – and Scotland get the job done – Greece are done in Group C. Unable to catch the top two. Consigned to third place.

Denmark would be level with Scotland on 10 points but ahead on goal difference, leaving the two to battle it out for top spot in November.

But should the Greeks draw or win, they would stay alive while allowing Steve Clarke’s side to leap over the Danes into top spot in the section.

It is possible but extremely unlikely, especially when you consider Denmark are already on seven points and have two home games – including one against Belarus – to play.

Scotland, meanwhile, have to go to Greece – albeit to face a side with nothing but pride on the line – before the Danes come to Hampden in the finale.

We can use the Champions League as a case study to determine what 10 points might get you. Uefa’s premier club competition had the same four-team, six-game format until last season.

A look at all eight sections across the 2023-24 campaign shows 10 points would have been enough to guarantee top spot in just three of those groups.

Given the goal difference disparity already – Denmark are already five goals better off – Scotland’s fate might well lie in a play-off.

Second in the group still offers a route to the finals, with the 12 runners-up – plus the four best Nations League group winners who failed to finish in the top two of their sections – drawn into four play-off paths.

Each of those will have two one-legged semi-finals – with the seeded team at home – before a final.

Here are the teams currently in second spot in the sections:

The BBC contract announced in March is part of a wider deal that also includes matches involving Northern Ireland and Wales.

It included 14 live Scotland matches, the first of which was the first leg of the Nations League play-off in Greece in March.

Coverage of Scotland’s qualifiers for the World Cup in United States, Canada and Mexico continues on Thursday when the Greeks return to Glasgow.

The match will be shown live on BBC Scotland, iPlayer and online, with coverage beginning at 19:30 BST.

The BBC will also show Sunday’s match at Hampden against Belarus.

There will be full live Sportsound commentary of both qualifiers on BBC Radio Scotland, Radio Nan Gaidheal and BBC Sounds. Sunday’s match is also on BBC Radio 5 Live.

And there will be full live text coverage on the BBC Sport website and app, including as-live goal clips and all the best punditry and analysis, as well as the chance for fans to have their say.