Guinea-Bissau coup: What happened, why it matters, what happens next?

One day after a military coup, military leaders in Guinea-Bissau, a small West African nation, have named a new leader.

General Horta Nta Na Man was named as the head of a one-year transitional government at about noon (12: 00 GMT) on Thursday. He defended the seizure of power in a statement, saying that Guinea-Bissau’s army had taken control in the face of threats to its stability.

On Wednesday, the military arrested President Umaro Sissoco Embalo just hours before the results of a tense presidential vote held over the weekend were due to be announced.

After Fernando Dias and Embalo, the incumbent, both won the election on Sunday. The military leaders, &nbsp, who appeared on national TV to make their announcement, said they were acting to stop attempts to “manipulate electoral results”.

Dias, the country’s electoral commissioner, and other top military figures, were also detained.

Wednesday’s military takeover is the latest in a string of coups across West Africa that have fractured the regional bloc, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which is eager to crack down on military interventions and to instil democratic principles of government.

Despite what it described as an orderly and peaceful vote that its observers on Sunday, the bloc condemned the action in a joint statement with the African Union hours after the putsch.

Coastal Guinea-Bissau, wedged between Senegal and Guinea, has experienced nine coup attempts since its independence from Portugal in 1974, with the most recent failed attempt reported in late October.

In recent years, the nation has grown to be a major hub for drug trafficking between Latin America and Europe. Embalo’s critics have accused him of staging crises to stay in power.

What we know about the coup and what it means:

What transpired?

Signs of trouble began when gunfire rang out on Wednesday afternoon near the presidential palace in the capital, Bissau.

Shortly afterward, army officers announced on state television that they had taken control of the country in response to the “discovery of an ongoing plan” that they claimed was meant to “manipulate electoral results.”

Al Jazeera’s Nicolas Haque, reporting from nearby Senegal, said the army officer leading the coup, Brigadier General Denis N’Canha, had served as the head of the presidential guard before the takeover.

According to Haque, “the man supposed to protect the president himself has put him in jail,” adding that there appeared to be military tries to censor the internet.

N’Canha, on state TV, announced that officers had formed “the High Military Command for the Restoration of Order”.

The High Military Command, according to his statement, “decides to immediately remove the president of the republic and to suspend all of the republic’s institutions until new orders are issued.”

He claimed that the alleged plot to destabilise the country was being coordinated by “some national politicians with the participation of a well-known drug lord and domestic and foreign nationals”, without giving further details.

The soldiers added that the media coverage and the ongoing electoral process had been suspended. They also closed off the country’s land, sea and air borders and imposed a nighttime curfew.

The Associated Press reported that heavily armed, masked soldiers were operating at checkpoints and that the roads leading to the palace were closed off. A palace official told the AP that a group of armed men had attacked the building, leading to a gunfire exchange with presidential guards. Gunshots were also reported by officials close to the National Electoral Commission.

Hundreds of people fled on foot and in vehicles, seeking shelter as shots rang out, the AFP news agency reported.

Who has been arrested and where are they now?

President Embalo claimed that he had been arrested in his office at around 1 p.m., in a “coup” led by N’Canha, the head of the presidential military office, according to French news outlet Jeune Afrique. Embalo stated that he had not been subjected to violence. Additionally, the president stated in a phone call to French television station France 24: “I have been deposed.

Military officials have not provided any information about where the president is being held.

According to Embalo, the army’s chief of staff, General Biague Na Ntam, his deputy, General Mamadou Toure, and its minister of interior, Botche Cande, are all being detained at the army headquarters.

Reuters, quoting anonymous sources, reported that opposition candidate Dias of the Party for Social Renewal, as well as Domingos Simoes Pereira, former prime minister and the head of the main opposition PAIGC (African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde), had been arrested.

Pereira and Dias’ arrests were confirmed by PAIGC in a Facebook statement on Wednesday, along with the announcement that Octavio Lopes, a lawyer, was also being detained. Pereira had been preparing to stand as the main opposition candidate in the election, but his PAIGC party was barred after the electoral commission said it had failed to submit its application on time. Pereira endorsed the obscure Dias in the election afterward.

Was Embalo facing a legitimacy crisis?

Yes, Embalo, 53, had a legitimacy crisis in the months leading up to the coup and his position has been hampered by political infighting. The former army general was first elected in 2019, backed by a coalition of parties known as Madem G15, which had separated from the then-ruling PAIGC party.

In the decades that followed, PAIGC, which declared its independence from Portugal in 1974, has ruled the country.

However, after Embalo was sworn in, in February 2020, the opposition challenged his victory and the Supreme Court did not recognise him as president until September 2020.

In February and December of this year, the president was the target of what he termed “tried coups,” which included arrests of military personnel.

Embalo’s critics, however, have accused him of fabricating crises in order to crack down on dissent. For instance, Embalo ordered the dissolution of the opposition-controlled parliament following the December 2023 coup attempt, which started as a clash between an army unit and the presidential guard. Parliament has not reconvened since, and Embalo has ruled through decrees.

In the midst of unrest with opposition groups, President Embalo announced in March that he would run for office once more.

He said he aimed to make history in the turbulent country by being the first leader in 30 years to secure a second consecutive term. However, opposition groups claimed that he had delayed elections until November because his term had originally expired in February 2025 and that they did not recognize his presidency. A Supreme Court ruling said Embalo’s term ended in September.

After the party was denied the opportunity to vote on a technicality in October, PAIGC also accused Embalo of using force. It was the first time in the country’s history that the former governing party had been excluded from elections.

What was the outcome of the election?

In the lead-up to Sunday’s tightly contested elections, Embalo campaigned on stability while the Pereira-backed Dias campaigned on change. Votes were thwarted despite accusations of corruption and hate speech from both sides, but they were unaffected.

On Tuesday, however, both Embalo and Dias declared victory in the elections.

Following the coup, PAIGC claimed that the military intervention was meant to prevent Dias’ victory from the electoral authority.

PAIGC “considers this fact as manoeuvres to disrupt the electoral process, which was already in the final stage of dissemination of provisional results”, the party said. It urged the electoral commission to publish the election results, which “award Dr. Fernando Dias da Costa with a significant victory and guaranteed him victory right away.”

On Wednesday, the Bissau-Guinean civil society coalition, Frente Popular or Popular Front, also accused Embalo and the army of staging a “simulated coup” to block the release of election results.

The organization stated in a statement on Wednesday that “this maneuver aims to prevent the publication of the election results scheduled for tomorrow, November 27.” It claimed Embalo’s statements to international media were proof of this.

The group claimed that the deposed president intended to hold new elections in which he intended to run once more after naming a new president and interim prime minister.

Was Embalo’s administration resolute?

Beverly Ochieng, West Africa analyst at the intelligence firm Control Risks, told Al Jazeera that the constant infighting had made Embalo’s government vulnerable.

The legislature, judiciary, and various government institutions have been declared nonoperable or operating at capacity during Embalo’s presidency, she said.

Political infighting and the banning of PAIGC “likely contributed to a military intervention – even though there is a school of thought that this may have been staged to play up vulnerabilities against Embalo”, Ochieng added.

According to political analyst Ryan Cummings, Embalo’s past actions gave evidence of a fake coup that could result in his reinstatement by the military administration. But, he added, it is also “highly plausible” the military acted alone to avoid a deadlock in a country where 70 percent of the 1.6 million population is poor.

There are growing concerns that Guinea-Bissau’s long-standing conflicts with Embalo and the opposition have caused the country to fall into a political impasse, he said.

Is there a link to the drug trade?

How much does the coup have to do with the nation’s rising reputation as a hub for drugs? The military coup leaders claim there was an effort to “manipulate” the election by “national leaders” working with drug cartels, but have not provided any evidence.

Guinea-Bissau was first warned by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) in 2008 that it was in danger of degenerating into a “narco state.” Since then, major drug busts in the country continue to cement it as a drug-trafficking hub, with dealers found by investigators to be working with help from the military.

Bissau-Guinean, Colombian, Mexican, and Portuguese nationals were detained and given sentences of 16 years in prison following a significant drug operation spearheaded by local security forces and supported by the UNODC.

A 2020 report by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime warned that the drug trade could increase under the newly elected Embalo because key figures in the military had backed his presidency. Embalo and the drug trade were not directly linked, according to the report.

Ex-navy chief Jose Bubo Na Tchuto was arrested off the country’s coast by US forces and sentenced in October 2016 to four years in prison by a Manhattan court for conspiring to import drugs into the United States. He was the highest-ranking official in the government to receive a drug trafficking sentence.

“The drug cartels ‘ influence is depending on the lack of the legitimacy (of the government)”, political analyst Aly Fary Ndiaye told Al Jazeera. They will be more likely to support or fund those who are in the army in order to open their eyes and help them grow their business if, for instance, we have a military coup.

Election observers from the AU and ECOWAS were still in Bissau when Wednesday’s coup occurred, including former Nigerian president Goodluck Jonathan and former Mozambican president Filipe Nyusi. The country appears to be oblivious to the delegation’s current situation.

In a joint AU-ECOWAS statement signed by the former leaders, the blocs condemned the coup and called for the electoral process to be resumed. After the delegation had spoken with them, both candidates, according to the statement, had agreed to accept the results of the vote.

“We deplore this blatant attempt to disrupt the democratic process and the gains that have been achieved thus far”, the statement read. We are concerned about the arrests of senior officials, including those in charge of the electoral process. In this regard, we urge the armed forces to immediately release the detained officials to allow the country’s electoral process to proceed to its conclusion”.

During Embalo’s “political overreach,” including when he unilaterally disbanded parliament, analyst Ochieng claimed that ECOWAS was not vocal enough. The bloc, she said, is struggling to instil respect for democratic practices and public institutions because it fails to proactively uphold strict democratic standards, something the militaries are exploiting.

The coup has been criticized by the governments of Ghana and Nigeria. Portugal and Qatar have also called for a resumption of the electoral process.

According to Stephane Dujarric, his representative, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, “appeals to all national stakeholders in Guinea-Bissau to exercise restraint and respect the rule of law.”

What happens next?

After swearing in General Horta Nta Na Man for a 12-month transitional period, the military made the announcement on Thursday that borders would be reopened. Not much is known yet about the military leader.

Despite a report from French radio station RFI, PAIGC called for a rally in front of the Ministry of the Interior and that Bissau was still being heavily patrolled by security forces on Thursday.

The calm, though, belies what is likely to be a period of political uncertainty ahead, whether Embalo is reinstated or not, analysts say. Embalo’s return may support conspiracy theories and stoke violent protests among opposition candidates, who are unlikely to support military rule.

Meanwhile, the African Union and ECOWAS will likely pressure the military to return to democratic rule as soon as possible, Cummings said. Both countries have previously suspended and sanctioned coup-bred nations before resuming them once elections are established.

Source: Aljazeera