German election: Who won, who lost and what’s next?

The conservative Christian Democrats have won Germany’s national election, putting them on track to lead the next coalition government, according to provisional results.

The outcome means the party’s leader, Friedrich Merz, will likely be Germany’s next chancellor.

Here’s a breakdown of the election results and what to expect from Germany’s next leadership:

What were the election’s main outcomes in Germany?

Conservative and right-wing parties emerged on top. The mainstream conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), along with its partner, the Christian Social Union (CSU), finished first with 28.6 percent of the vote, while the far-right, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged into second with 20.8 percent, according to provisional results announced by election authorities.

The Social Democratic Party (SPD) came in third with just 16.4 percent, a nearly 10-point drop from their first-place finish in 2021. Outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz acknowledged a “bitter” defeat, saying “the election result is poor and I bear responsibility”.

Germany’s Greens and the far-left Die Linke, or The Left, party exceeded the 5 percent threshold to secure seats in parliament, with 11.6 percent and 8.8 percent, respectively.

As a result, the CDU/CSU partnership is projected to secure 208 seats in the Bundestag, the German parliament, the AfD 152, the SPD 120, the Greens 85 and The Left 64.

Who is Friedrich Merz, Germany’s likely next Chancellor?

The 69-year-old CDU leader has spent decades both in and out of politics. He was elected for the first time in 1989, and he had already presided over the CDU’s parliamentary alliance by 2000.

Merz eventually resigned from parliament in 2009 after being pushed aside by Angela Merkel to work for multinational corporations like Mayer Brown and BlackRock Germany. Merz was re-elected leader of the CDU in 2022 after Merkel retired from politics following her 16-year-long stint as the country’s chancellor.

A social conservative who has broached the idea of a new European defence coalition, Merz says he plans to govern Germany “reliably” and push for European “independence” from the United States.

In light of growing public disagreements between US President Donald Trump and European leaders regarding Ukraine and US security cover for Europe, Merz said on Sunday, “I have no illusions about what will come out of America.”

Soon after his party’s victory on Monday, Merz went on to pledge that Europe will “remain firmly by” Ukraine, which he said must be play a role in any peace negotiations.

Why is AfD’s result significant?

The far-right party finished just after Merz’s CDU, with 20.8 percent of the vote, double their 2021 support. It is projected to win 152 seats in parliament. Since the end of World War II, Germany’s far-right movement has shown the most strength.

The AfD’s rise highlights its growing populist appeal to voters who oppose immigration and the European Union, particularly in eastern Germany, where it outperformed all other parties.

Despite little chance of the AfD being invited into a coalition, the party, led by 46-year-old Alice Weidel, is celebrating what it believes to be a victory, positioning a once-fringe force firmly in the mainstream of Europe’s right wing.

The outcome is anticipated to increase the AfD’s influence in the German parliament, where it won a major victory in January when Merz and the CDU turned to Weidel’s group to petition for passage of a bill urging stricter immigration restrictions.

Who else made big gains?

The Left won 8.8 percent of the vote, nearly doubling its share from the last election. It performed especially well in the capital, Berlin, surpassing all parties with 19.9 percent of the vote. That puts it on track to win 64 seats in the Bundestag.

The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a populist left-wing party formed last year after a split with The Left, took 4.97 percent of the vote. That was just shy of the 5% threshold, which would allow for more seats in the Bundestag for larger parties.

How did other parties perform?

The Social Democrats’ two outgoing coalition partners, the Greens, and the FDP, both have business-friendly policies.

The Greens won 11.6 percent of the vote, a 3 percent drop from the 2021 elections. The party’s chancellor candidate, Robert Habeck, conceded it was “not a good a result” and said he would no longer seek a leading role in the party.

The FDP received only 4.3 percent of the vote, which effectively stoked the snap election by abandoning the coalition over a budget dispute. It is anticipated to lose all 91 seats it has held since 2021 because the party did not win any constituencies and its national vote is below the proportional representation threshold of 5 percent.

Christian Lindner, the leader, announced he would leave active politics as the results of the election were revealed.

“Germany’s election resulted in the FDP’s defeat, but we can all hope for a new beginning for Germany.” He stated in a post on X that this is what I fought for.

Die Bundestagswahl brachte eine Niederlage für die FDP, aber hoffentlich einen Neuanfang für Deutschland. Dafür hatte ich gekämpft.

Nun scheide ich aus der aktiven Politik. Mit nur einem Gefühl: Dankbarkeit für fast 25 intensive, herausfordernde Jahre voller Gestaltung und… pic. twitter.com/UuT1jTUeRW

What’s next and could the AfD be in government?

Merz will now begin the challenging task of forming a coalition government. To do so, he needs to shore up at least 316 seats in the 630-member Bundestag.

Despite joining forces with the far-right AfD in January over the immigration bill, he has ruled out working with them. He claims they have “fundamentally different views”. That implies that his best chance would likely be a two-way deal with the SPD, which would win 328 seats.

The CDU/CSU and the SPD have ruled through so-called grand coalitions four times in the past — between 1966 and 1969 in West Germany, and thrice since reunification, under Merkel’s chancellorship.

A three-way partnership with Merz’s centrist CDU would likely require more concessions and be more fragile. Merz favors corporate tax cuts and nuclear energy, while the Greens support higher taxes on the wealthy and renewable energy. The Left also supports laxer immigration policies, which are in opposition to Merz’s plan to reduce immigration and increase deportations, and supports higher taxes for the wealthy.

The next government’s composition is also likely to have an impact on Merz’s foreign policy positions, which include his desire for Germany to play a leading role in European affairs and contribute to the continent’s unity.

“If it winds up being a coalition with two parties – with Merz and CDU, and the centre-left – that puts him]Merz] in a stronger position”, global strategy adviser Marco Vicenzino told Al Jazeera. “If it has to go into a three-party coalition, it gets into a weaker position”.

The European Union’s foreign policy chief urged German parties to form a coalition quickly because Europe faces significant defense challenges, particularly because of the conflict in Ukraine.

We really need to move on with the decisions that require German participation on a European level, said Kaja Kalla, “I hope they do it as quickly as possible.”

Merz said he hoped to form a new government by Easter, April 20, 2025.

What has the AfD said about its “win”?

AfD’s leadership has been praised for its actions and should be represented in the upcoming coalition government, according to party leaders.

To enthralling supporters on Sunday, AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla declared, “We have achieved something historic today.” We now control the political center, and we have abandoned our fringes.

Source: Aljazeera