From worst to first – why hope springs eternal in the NFL

One thing fans of all 32 NFL teams can have before a new season is hope – regardless of how things turned out last year.

The league is set up to promote parity, with the salary cap and draft system, in particular, ensuring fortunes can turn around pretty quickly.

So a team can go from no-hopers one season to play-off contenders the next, and in some cases seven transform themselves from propping up their division to winning the Super Bowl.

The fight for play-off spots is now wide open.

At least four new teams have qualified in each of the past 35 seasons, and since the play-offs were expanded to 14 teams in 2020, the average is about six.

And the hope reaches deep too – a team has made the play-offs the year after finishing bottom of the division in 26 of the past 29 seasons.

The definitive ‘worst to first’, though, is winning the division the year after coming last, or tied last, and it’s becoming much more regular.

Of the 53 times in NFL history a team has gone worst to first, 29 have come in the past 22 seasons – following the NFL’s 2002 realignment to create eight four-team divisions.

Nobody managed it last year, for just the third time in that span, but the Washington Commanders get an honourable mention for making it to within a game of the Super Bowl just a year after going 4-13 in the season.

The Philadelphia Eagles performed the ultimate turnaround in 2017 when going from last in the NFC East to Super Bowl champions – joining the 2009 New Orleans Saints in achieving that feat.

Even before realignment, teams could be transformed in just a year – the 1999 St Louis Rams won the Super Bowl as a team referred to as ‘The Greatest Show on Turf’ just a season after a 4-12 record.

So we know teams can totally flip the script, but how?

The NFL Draft helps, with the worst teams getting the cream of the best college players to help rebuild.

Jayden Daniels sparked Washington’s revival last year in his stellar rookie season, while the Houston Texans went worst to first in 2023 after drafting ace quarterback CJ Stroud and defensive star Will Anderson having accrued picks two and three in the draft.

So clever trading of picks, or stockpiling for a rebuild, can really help.

Then there’s the salary cap, which helps more in preventing one team from dominating, as successful teams have successful players wanting pay rises – and not all can be met.

If another team prepares properly, clears the books of hefty veteran contracts, and reloads with younger, cheaper rookies combined with some top free agents – you have the perfect storm.

And, finally, a more subtle nuance in the fixtures helps. Teams play their own division and two other teams in rotation, and drawing a ‘softer’ division can be a boost.

The eight teams who finished bottom of their division last year will all want to go from worst to first – but some have far greater chances than others on paper.

Cleveland Browns: They only team in the NFL not to win a division since the 2002 realignment, their last was in 1989, and don’t bank on this being the year for their first worst-to-first finish.

The defence remains solid, elite even, but that quarterback room with Shedeur Sanders and 40-year-old Joe Flacco doesn’t look great and a tough division containing the Baltimore Ravens, the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers gives them an impossible task.

Chicago Bears: New head coach Ben Johnson should get more out of Caleb Williams, but again the division is an issue, with the other three teams in the NFC North all making the play-offs last season.

New Orleans Saints: They won the Super Bowl after a worst-to-first campaign but this team look miles off, even in an easier division that most. Quarterback Spencer Rattler won the starting job but lost all six of his starts last season and had three more interceptions than touchdowns.

Tennessee Titans: Everything rests with top draft pick Cam Ward to see if he can do a CJ Stroud and turn the tables.

New York Giants: Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart could replace Russell Wilson sooner than expected after his impressive pre-season but they have Super Bowl champions Philadelphia and the improved Commanders in their division.

The NFC East has not had a back-to-back winner since 2004 though, so you never know.

Las Vegas Raiders: New head coach Pete Caroll had 11 winning seasons in 14 at Seattle, including a Super Bowl win, so expect improvement – but perhaps not enough to topple the dominant Kansas City Chiefs or well-fancied Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers.

New England Patriots: New head coach Mike Vrabel will toughen the Pats up – based on his success with the Titans – and this time he looks to have a genuine star quarterback in Drake Maye. This could be perfect timing.