The French government looks set to collapse in a vote of no confidence and tip the eurozone’s second biggest economy into a political crisis. Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is expected to be ousted, casting doubt over President Emmanuel Macron’s future.
Monday’s vote hinges on Bayrou’s unpopular budget proposal for 2026, designed to slash France’s fiscal deficit. The 74-year-old political veteran, who called the vote himself in a bid to pressure lawmakers to back his plans, has been in office for only nine months.
France has had four prime ministers in less than two years, and a fifth probably won’t be enough to break the country’s political deadlock. The paralysis is reminiscent of the instability last observed in 1958 when the Fifth Republic was established.
Ahead of the no-confidence vote, Bayrou spoke on Monday afternoon in the National Assembly, France’s lower house of parliament, where he told lawmakers that the economy faced serious risks because of its deep indebtedness. He is expected to field questions from parliamentarians.
The vote itself will take place in the evening with the result expected between 8pm and 9pm (18:00 and 19:00 GMT).
Here’s what you need to know:
What could happen next?
For several weeks, lawmakers have made it clear they will vote against Bayrou’s state-slashing budget. Opposition parties from the far left to the far right hold 330 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly – more than enough to oust him.
If Bayrou loses Monday’s vote and the government falls, he would stay in office until President Emmanuel Macron decides what to do next. Unfortunately for the president, France lacks a consensus figure to replace Bayrou.
Macron is faced with uniquely hard choices – appoint another prime minister in the hope he or she can pass an unpopular budget, call new elections to try to re-establish a parliamentary majority or stand down himself, something he has refused to do before his term ends in 2027.
Most experts expected Bayrou to lose the vote, which would force Macron to find a replacement. But with the arithmetic in parliament unchanged, that risks simply repeating the events from last year when Bayrou succeeded Michel Barnier.
A fiscal conservative, Macron is unlikely to appoint a premier who advocates for higher state spending. But after the government recently tried to cut deals on the right of the political spectrum, some wonder if Macron might try something new.
According to Stefano Palombarini, assistant professor of economics at the University of Paris VIII, “the two previous appointments, Barnier and Bayrou, both failed. He [Macron] lost a lot of credibility in that process, and if he tries a similarly centrist approach, he’d lose even more.”
Palombarini told Al Jazeera that “in this context, it would make the scenario of a relative opening towards the left possible. Some Macronist, Socialist and Green politicians say they’re ready for compromises to form a government that lasts until 2027.”
Does this mean there is a clear political path?
Not really.
According to an opinion poll this month for Le Figaro Magazine by the Verian Group, just 15 percent of the electorate has confidence in Macron, down 6 percentage points since July. However, the president has consistently ruled out resigning from office.
Separate surveys by Ifop, Elabe and Toluna Harris Interactive indicated that 56 to 69 percent of French people want snap parliamentary elections, indicating growing dissatisfaction with current party politics in a country run by minority cabinets since 2022.
For Palombarini, “there’s general political malaise [in France] and also dissatisfaction specifically with Macron. So overall, opinion polls are actually quite stable.” Indeed, the latest polls show no material change in voting intentions over the past year.
This means there is no certainty that a new prime minister would be safe from a similar fate as Bayrou.
What are the origins of this crisis?
At the heart of France’s political paralysis is Macron’s risky decision to call snap parliamentary elections last year. That came after he was re-elected in 2022.
Macron’s gamble in June 2024 was an effort to shore up support for the political centre. But French voters edged towards the extremes, leaving Macron with a weakened minority government and limiting his ability to pass legislation.
The vote resulted in a hung parliament split between three groups. A left alliance won the most seats but fell far short of a majority. The far-right National Rally won the most votes but also doesn’t have a majority. Macron’s centrist coalition lost seats but still forms a significant third bloc.
This parliamentary shake-up has made France hard to govern. Divisions have shown up most clearly around spending.
How does the budget fit into it?
The immediate reason for Bayrou’s fall is his budget proposal for next year. His unpopular 44-billion-euro ($51bn) deficit-reduction plan, including freezing most welfare spending and scrapping two public holidays, has been widely rejected by parliamentarians.
On August 25, Jordan Bardella, head of the National Rally, said his party would “never vote in favour of a government whose decisions are making the French suffer”. Bayrou in effect has announced “the end of his government”, Bardella said.
The French budget deficit is now nearly 169 billion euros ($196bn), or 5.8 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), well above the 3 percent limit set by the European Union for countries using the euro.
Bayrou is trying to lower the government’s borrowing to 4.6 percent of GDP in 2026 and to 2.8 percent by 2029. In turn, that would lower the overall debt-to-GDP ratio to 117.2 percent in 2029, compared with 125.3 percent if no changes are made.
Bayrou recently said young people will be saddled with years of debt payments “for the sake of the comfort of boomers” if France fails to tackle its fiscal pressures. Born in 1951, Bayrou himself qualifies as a baby boomer, the generation born in the years soon after World War II.
But any attempt to curtail social benefits is politically difficult in France, as made clear by conflicts in 2023 over Macron’s decision to raise the retirement age to 64 from 62.
Still, investors worry that France’s persistent deficits will cause ever higher debt ratios and undermine its credit score.
Is more gridlock expected?
A series of street demonstrations known as “Block Everything” is expected this week, followed by union-led hospital and rail strikes in the second half of September.
In 2018 and 2023, France witnessed what became known as the “gilets jaunes”, or yellow vest. antigovernment protests against various domestic policies overseen by Macron, who will want to avoid a repeat this time, analysts said.
Source: Aljazeera
Leave a Reply