Four spots, 11 teams – how Champions League race is shaping up

The race is raging to secure European football for the upcoming season.

There were some twists and turns on Saturday, with Chelsea, Bournemouth and Fulham all losing.

Aston Villa’s miraculous victory and Brighton’s victory placed both firmly back in contention, while Brentford, who is 11th, are only seven points clear of the top four after Friday’s emphatic victory at Leicester.

With their defeats, Fulham could have shortened the gap to two points had they won, while Bournemouth and Chelsea both lacked the opportunity to rise into the top four.

The following positions are the benchmarks for Premier League positions:

Champions League: Top four

Europa League: Fifth

The Carabao Cup winners receive a play-off spot in the Europa Conference League, and the FA Cup winners receive a second spot in the competition.

The sixth-placed team in the Premier League will take that spot if the FA Cup winners are successful in securing European qualification through another means.

Similarly, if the EFL Cup winners earn a European place by another route, then England’s Conference League place passes on to the sixth-placed team.

The likelihood of teams placing in each position is estimated using Opta’s League Prediction model. Using the Opta Power Rankings and the betting market odds, the model calculates the likelihood of each game’s win, draw, or loss. Based on both recent and historical team performances, the odds and rankings are accurate.

By utilizing these match outcome probabilities, the model considers the strength of its opponents, and it simulates the competition’s final moments countless times. The model can determine how frequently teams finished in each league position by analyzing the results of each of these simulations.

According to the report, Arsenal have a 99.7% chance of finishing in the top four, and Liverpool has a more than 99.9% chance.

Manchester City has an 81.7% chance to earn its 15th successive Champions League spot, which increases to 91.1% if a fifth spot is available (more on that later).

With a 48.6% chance of finishing in the top four, Nottingham Forest is currently in the best position, but the situation is really tight between the other teams.

Each country’s league earns a coefficient ranking based on how their teams perform in Uefa’s three men’s club competitions: the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League.

Two wins and one draw earn coefficient points for the winning combination.

The number of clubs the domestic league has in Europe is calculated using the points earned by the domestic league.

For example, if the Premier League had 100 points, that would be split by the number of teams playing in Europe (seven), giving England a coefficient of 14.28.

Champions League clubs that are participating in it this season will receive bonus points, which is advantageous for leagues with more competing clubs like Germany and Italy.

The top two of the coefficient table’s countries receive an additional Champions League spot the following year.

The teams with the best positions in those leagues receive those spots.

The top four Premier League clubs automatically advance to the Champions League by virtue of their position, so the team in fifth place would receive any additional spots.

At present, the Premier League is in the driving seat, with six of its seven teams reaching the last 16 across all three Uefa competitions.

England’s current situation, with Spain currently in third place, is only bled by Real Madrid’s defeat.

However, Italy, who are second, endured a dismal time in February with AC Milan, Atalanta and Juventus all losing in the Champions League knockout play-off round – limiting Serie A’s opportunity to gather more points.

Bayern Munich and Dortmund’s matchup in the Champions League draw makes it seem difficult for Germany’s chances.

Likewise France. Monaco and Brest both exited the Champions League after Paris St-Germain and Lille left the competition. Lyon, in the Europa League, are the only other French side left in European competition.

Next season, England might have six Champions League contenders.

A Champions League slot is also available to Europa League winners.

Any single league could only have five clubs in the Champions League, prior to previous regulations. However, that rule has been scrapped.

Any team entering the Champions League this year will be able to compete in the Europa League if they win but do not, due to their domestic league status, make it to the Champions League.

The Premier League was well-positioned to claim one of the two coveted European performance slots by the time Uefa’s three club competitions reached their quarter-finals last year.

But the elimination of Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool and West Ham shredded those hopes, with Aston Villa’s exit in the semi-finals of the Conference League confirming the failure as Italy and Germany benefited.

No one will take anything for granted this time around because those hopes quickly fell.