England? Spain? What do stats say about who will win Euro 2025?

England won their first major title at Euro 2022 with Chloe Kelly’s extra-time winner at Wembley thanks to home advantage.

However, three years in the sport is a long time, and Opta’s pre-tournament projections clearly indicate that Spain will win the title this summer despite not having advanced past the quarter-finals for 28 years.

According to Opta’s prediction model, the world champions have a 25% chance of winning Euro 2025 after falling to the Lionesses in the final eight of the year in 2022.

In the event that they do, La Roja would become only the second women’s team in history to triumph in both the World Cup and the European Championships, joining Germany, which won five major tournaments in a row between 2001 and 2009 (three Euros, two World Cups).

England, the reigning champions, have a 17% chance of defending their title, according to Sarina Wiegman’s side, who are expected to have the best chance of defeating Spain.

Who better to guide the Lionesses’ way to the final after almost a third of Opta’s simulations (29%), who has a flawless record at the Women’s Euros, winning 12 of their matches in 2017 and England in 2022, and the Dutchwoman, who won 6 of the 12 in 2017 and 6 in 2022.

However, we won’t be able to watch the 2023 World Cup final against Spain and England, which they will face in Switzerland if both of their groups are defeated.

The Opta predictor predicts that France (39%), France (39%), and England (40%) will almost always be the top two teams in Group D, while Les Bleues are (168%) the second-place team overall in the Euros (16%).

France, which eliminated Wendie Renard as captain and Eugenie le Sommer from their squad for the tournament, have played 26 games and won 11 of those matches, which is the most among nations that have never reached the final.

No reigning champion has ever lost their first game at the next tournament (W7, D5), despite the Lionesses having also won each of their previous 14 group-stage matches at major tournaments, including the World Cup and Euros, which is the longest ever run by a European nation.

So, we can anticipate a promising start from England, who are the only team at Euro 2025 to have defeated each of their group opponents in their most recent meeting, and that will help lessen the negative hum that has been brewing in the squad’s pre-tournament.

After losing three key players just one month after the Euros, Wiegman has been put under pressure to calm the England squad.

In Switzerland, Mary Earps, Millie Bright, and Fran Kirby, who were all starting for England, featured no players despite retiring from their first group stage game to the final.

Hannah Hampton now ranks as England’s top player for the tournament, despite the fact that, in fairness, there were indications that this would continue even without Earps’ retirement.

Between the start of 2024 and the 32-year-old’s retirement, the Chelsea goalkeeper started 10 of England’s 16 games while earning only 16 senior caps, compared to Earps’ 53.

The statistics do suggest Hampton is the right choice to be the Lionesses’ first-choice keeper when compared to just competitive games and over the course of the 2023 World Cup.

In that time, Hampton has improved his save rate (67.9% to 63%), kept more clean sheets (five to two), and conceded fewer goals than expected, according to Opta’s expected goals-on-target model (1. 4). On the other hand, Earps conceded more than the model had anticipated (-1.1%).

However, the Lionesses’ victory over Germany in the final did not appear to have altered things, leading them to 20 games without losing in all competitions after that. Before the game 31 versus Australia, Wiegman was beaten as England manager, he didn’t take the job until April 2023.

England have lost seven of their 32 games since the start of the 2023 World Cup, and the results have also significantly worsened.

England are accumulating fewer expected goals (xG) per game, 3.4 down to 2, and scoring fewer goals overall (4. 3 down to 4).

The Lionesses are facing more shots in defense (5.6 to 9.3) and giving their opponents better chances (xGA 0: 1 / 1). They are thus conceding much more frequently (0. 4 to 1.0) per game.

England’s ball possession levels have been comparable throughout Wiegman’s administration, but their off-the-ball numbers have also decreased in a similar way and amount to their defensive numbers.

Since the World Cup, they have 17 low high turnovers per game, down to 13.1, and have 3 lower high turnovers per game than they have, at 1.8%.

Russo and Khadija Shaw of Manchester City each won the 2024-25 WSL Golden Boot, and she did so on 20 occasions last term, surpassing all other Women’s Super League players. She also scored 12 goals in the same year.

The most successful Women’s Champions League campaign by an English player to date in a single season since 2009-10 saw seven of those strikes.

Aitana Bonmati, a Spanish player who won the women’s Ballon d’Or for the past two years, has been honored as the world’s best player without a doubt.

The 27-year-old was the leading chance creator in open play in Europe’s big five (67) and the Women’s Champions League (305) in 2024-25, and he came in second among the two Women’s Nations League (25) editions in that regard.